Tyreek Hill is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL. Depending on one’s definition, he should be considered the best. Undoubtedly, no receiver in the NFL can strike fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators quite like Hill can. He’s the most dangerous weapon in the league, and now two Kyle Shanahan branches are fighting over Hill in the AFC East in the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets as potential landing spots in a trade.
Tyreek Hill landing spots
Both spots make an incredible amount of sense. Yards after the catch are critical in Shanahan’s passing attack. Both places have young quarterbacks who have struggled early on in their careers and could use a go-to WR1. But after contract talks with the Chiefs hit an impasse, which spot will win out, and which team is the better fit?
Miami Dolphins
Pairing Hill with Hill 2.0 in Jaylen Waddle is disgusting, quite frankly. Waddle is a wizard with the ball in his hands, and Hill is the most dangerous downfield weapon in the NFL. Waddle could learn a lot from Hill’s progress as a more “traditional” receiver over the past few years.
But how does he fit with the quarterback? Tua Tagovailoa only attempted 18 passes of 21+ yards in 2021, according to Johnny Kinsley’s Deep Ball Project that he’s undertaken for years now. (Note: Deep ball accuracy has nothing to do with the completion percentage of downfield passes. It’s about the ball placement on those throws, whether completed or not.)
That number will increase with Hill in the fold. He’s the best downfield separator in the NFL. The only issue is part of that success came from Patrick Mahomes’ ability to create out of structure and propel passes deep downfield.
That’s not necessarily Tua’s game. Over the past two seasons of Kinsley’s charting, Tua has been accurate on 20 of 41 passes traveling 21+ yards. That two-year sample size is a better indicator of his overall ability to throw deep. It would put him around the middle of the pack.
But his sweet spot is in the 21-30 range on timing throws. Hill can win like that, but a backyard quarterback genuinely unlocks him. Hill fits anywhere with any quarterback. He would improve the Dolphins drastically. However, he might be a better fit in New York, but only if Zach Wilson progresses.
New York Jets
Wilson is a backyard QB. He’s the somewhat smaller kid in the cul de sac that’s difficult to two-hand touch and somehow can rocket passes from front porch to front porch on the move. Hill is a perfect fit for what Wilson excelled at while playing at BYU.
But that is not the same QB we saw as a rookie. Wilson will need to be much more controlled and accurate to maximize Hill. However, the inaccuracies didn’t necessarily come downfield.
Wilson ranked ninth in Kinsley’s charting for downfield accuracy. He was accurate on 16 of his 29 downfield attempts. If Hill does end up with the Jets, between him and Elijah Moore, I expect that number to skyrocket towards Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes’ attempts in the 60s.
The problems arise with having two smaller receivers with somewhat limited catch radii. Wilson was detrimentally inaccurate as a rookie. His mechanics were a wreck, and he missed far too many layups. He was always going to be a project, but things were worse than expected.
Which fit is better?
It’s tough to tell. The downfield potential in New York is greater, but Tua is the more accurate passer on a down-to-down basis. The fits are somewhat inverted between the two QBs’ skill sets.
The only thing that matters if a trade happens is bringing him in. Because as division rivals, neither defense wants to line up against Hill twice a season, especially when both teams have weapons available to complement him.
