It started pretty well for Tyreek Hill’s fantasy football managers. Then, Tua Tagovailoa suffered yet another concussion, torpedoing Hill’s fantasy value. What is Hill’s current fantasy value? Should managers look to trade the Miami Dolphins WR?
Should Fantasy Football Managers Trade Tyreek Hill?
Fantasy assets aren’t much different than stocks, trading cards, or collectibles. To extract the most value, you want to sell your assets at their highest point.
In fantasy, you don’t necessarily have to sell players at peak value because those players are scoring points for you. The situations in which you’d want to sell are when you think a player’s value will decrease. More specifically, you want to sell any player when the value you can get in return is greater than the value you think the player will provide going forward.
It’s that last part that’s key here. As great as it is to sell high, sometimes, we have to sell low. That’s especially the case when the current low is still higher than the future low. So, is that the situation we find ourselves in with Hill?
We know what Hill’s ceiling is. He’s one of the 10 best wide receivers to ever step foot on a football field. Even at 30 years old, he’s shown no signs of decline. At his best, he is the best wide receiver in fantasy. As a reminder, he did this less than a month ago.
Tyreek Hill. 80 yards for a TD!
📺: #JAXvsMIA on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/fNSbBgqRVI— NFL (@NFL)
Right now, though, he is not at his best, and it is not his fault at all.
Sixteen fantasy points per game (PPG) is the rough threshold for WR1 production; 20+ PPG is where we start talking about truly elite fantasy options. Since joining the Dolphins in 2022, Hill has played 31 games with Tagovailoa. He’s averaged 22.2 PPG in those contests.
Without Tagovailoa, it gets very ugly. It’s only a six-game sample size, but Hill’s average drops all the way to 13.0 PPG. This year, it’s been even worse. In his two games since Tagovailoa went on IR, Hill is averaging a paltry 7.6 PPG. He, along with literally every single player on the Dolphins, has been completely unstartable in fantasy.
In the purest sense of the term, the fantasy football MVP is Tua. The Dolphins have one of the best offenses in the league with him and one of the worst in the history of football without him. It’s that bad.
So, should you give up on Hill? Well, it depends.
We have reached the point in the fantasy season where managers need to start thinking about their team’s current situation. We know the earliest Tagovailoa can return is Week 8. And by all accounts, he’s on track to return. In fact, I surmise that Tagovailoa would have been able to play this week had the Dolphins not placed him on injured reserve out of an abundance of justified caution.
Adam Schefter reports Tua Tagovailoa is "symptom-free" and appears to be on track to return to the field as soon as Week 8.
— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley)
Including the Dolphins’ upcoming bye week, fantasy managers will have to go three more games with Hill as an unstartable option. Yes, you can bench Hill in his two remaining games without Tagovailoa (and, of course, the bye week). The question you have to ask yourself is whether your team can survive another three weeks without Hill as a factor.
What Should Fantasy Managers Look To Acquire When Trading Hill?
If you’re 3-1 or 4-0, I don’t think you should trade Hill at a reduced value. Fantasy managers are very reactionary. Seeing what he’s done, you are not going to get anything near elite WR1 value for Hill. Even if you lose the next three weeks, at worst, you’re looking at 3-4 when Hill returns. You can stomach that.
If you’re 2-2 or worse, you need to consider these next three weeks. Taking three losses will severely hinder your odds of making the playoffs. Five losses through seven weeks will have you walking a tightrope to get in, with little margin for error. It might be in your best interest to cash out now. See if you can get a WR2 and an RB3 who are healthy with late-season byes to help you secure immediate wins.
