Tyler Boyd’s fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

Seemingly the forgotten man on the Cincinnati Bengals’ offense, Tyler Boyd has seen his ADP plummet in recent months. After three seasons of success, should you consider drafting Boyd in 2021, or is the Bengals’ receiver room now too crowded to allow for a positive fantasy football outlook?

Tyler Boyd’s fantasy outlook for 2021

After an acclimation period to the NFL game, Boyd has been about as consistent as it gets for fantasy. Over the past three seasons, Boyd has received 366 total targets (148 in 2019), recording 245 receptions for 2,915 yards and 16 touchdowns. In 2018, he finished as the WR17 (15.8 ppg). Boyd backed that up with a WR18 performance in 2019 while averaging 13.9 ppg. 

In 2020, he was off to a blistering start. From Week 1 through 11, Boyd was the WR11 in PPR (16.2 ppg). Boyd was fifth in the NFL in targets (87) and led the Bengals in both receptions (69) and yards (710). It helped that Burrow was on pace for an absurd 776 passing attempts. Ultimately, the floor for Boyd went out just as quickly as Burrow’s ACL.

From Week 12 and on, Boyd was the WR89 (6.0) ppg and saw just 23 targets the rest of the way, catching 10 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown. 

Despite the stagnant offense, the Bengals were one of two teams in 2020 to have three different receivers record 100 targets or more (Pittsburgh Steelers). Much of Boyd’s early success came on the back of A.J. Green’s struggles. While he led the Bengals in air yards (1,421), Green’s 42.5% reception percentage was by far the worst of his career.

Now that Green is in Arizona, this must mean good things for Boyd’s fantasy outlook in 2021, right? Well, not quite.

Ja’Marr Chase will take over Green’s role…and more

In a vacuum, which receiver would have a more significant impact on the fantasy outlook of Boyd in 2021? A 32-year-old Green, or Ja’Marr Chase now with his former LSU quarterback? Even with Green out of the picture, life just got even more problematic for Boyd. Chase will not just absorb the targets vacated by Green, but he will likely command over 130 targets that eat into Boyd more than anyone.

I’ve got this far without mentioning Tee Higgins, one of the most complete rookies of the 2020 NFL Draft class and finished third in yards (908) of the class. He is going nowhere — if anything, he will return to his WR2 status with a healthy Burrow. 

Burrow has already shown us he can sustain multiple fantasy-relevant receivers. But it is doubtful Boyd can return to WR2 status. The odd man out of this situation is Boyd. While he could still see 100 targets given the passing volume of the Bengals, Boyd’s fantasy outlook is more of a low-end WR3 in 2021.

Tyler Boyd’s fantasy projection for 2021

I have slightly touched on this, but let’s take a closer look at Boyd’s projection. While Burrow was on pace for over 770 attempts, that has to come back to the mean in 2021. While I expect to see the Bengals run around 64 plays per game and pass approximately 60% of the time, this results in 675 dropbacks. When you factor in a still questionable offensive line, I expect around 630 total passing attempts in my early run-through of projections.

Boyd is a clear third in the pecking order. Both Chase and Higgins should see over a 20% target share each, leaving Boyd around 17%, resulting in 108 targets across 16 games.

With Boyd working more in the slot and having a lower 8.3 aDOT (average depth of target), his catch percentage should remain the highest of the trio in the high 60% levels. I have Boyd with 108 targets in my early projections, with 75 receptions, 801 yards, and 5 touchdowns while averaging 11.67 ppg in PPR formats.

Tyler Boyd’s fantasy ADP

According to Sleeper, Boyd is currently being selected as the WR38 with an ADP of 89.3 in half PPR formats. In superflex leagues, given the priority of quarterbacks, he falls to 113.5. According to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Boyd is the WR32 with a 76 ADP. On Fleaflicker, his ADP is 93.8, ranging from 76 through to 108.

Should you draft Tyler Boyd in 2021 based on his fantasy outlook and ADP?

While he is the third option on Cincinnati’s offense, this is not the Marvin Lewis Bengals of yesteryear. Under Zac Taylor, the Bengals will be a pass-first offense even with Joe Mixon back for 2021. 

The defense, while improved, could struggle again in 2021, leading to a more aggressive game plan to stay in games. It also does not hurt for fantasy that the Bengals only have a 6.5 win total. If accurate, this leads to more passive-incentivized game scripts playing from behind.

If I could select Boyd as my WR4 in fantasy, I would feel comfortable with him on my fantasy roster, given the protected workload he could see. The WR2 days are gone, but his drop in ADP has this baked into his value. Boyd’s lack of explosive plays is a concern. But in full PPR leagues, the volume should be there for Boyd to outperform his current draft capital and end the season as a high-end WR3.