Tennessee Titans RB Tyjae Spears was a third-round pick in 2023 after clearing 1,800 yards and scoring 21 times for Tulane. He, of course, played behind an established bell cow in Derrick Henry as a rookie, but he did average 5.5 yards per touch and impressed with his versatility (52 catches on 70 targets).
Henry is now with the Baltimore Ravens, and while Tony Pollard was signed away from the Dallas Cowboys, the prevailing wisdom is that this backfield is essentially a 50-50 split in terms of touches.
How should you be viewing Spears (and Pollard) for fantasy football purposes in 2024?
Tyjae Spears’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Not to be overly dramatic, but does this feel like the Cooper Kupp vs. Robert Woods debate heading into 2021?
If you’ll remember, both receivers were coming off of consecutive 90+ catch seasons with north of 2,000 yards gained during those seasons. We were unsure of how to stack them up, so we stood on the fence and drafted both in the same range (as WR2s in Rounds 4-5).
From a process standpoint, it made all the sense in the world. Woods was a more established entity who had yet to show signs of decline while Kupp was a budding star. The Los Angeles Rams had just traded for Matthew Stafford, leading us to think the offense would take a step forward, but we weren’t sure who would benefit the most.
Kupp had an all-time fantasy football season (145-1,947-16), while Woods had only one 100-yard game and zero 30-yard catches through nine games before being lost for the remainder of the season.
I’m not sure who is Kupp and who is Woods in this Titans backfield, but we’re drafting them in the eight-round range, thinking that this new-look offense will feature reasonable running back production that will be divided down the middle between the incumbent Spears and the freshly signed Pollard.
Gone is Tim Kelly, the offensive coordinator who directed Tennessee to the fifth-lowest pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the league a season ago, leaning heavily on Henry to minimize the impact of any stumbles from Will Levis as a rookie. Gone is Henry himself, a great — albeit limited — back.
In is Nick Holz as OC, a former assistant of the Jacksonville Jaguars (fifth-highest PROE team in 2023), who brought in Calvin Ridley (76-1,016-8 last season) to pair alongside DeAndre Hopkins in addition to the aforementioned Pollard (18.8% of his career touches have been receptions compared to Henry’s career rate of 7.1%).
It’s not rare to see quarterbacks take a big step forward in Year 2, and it would appear that the Titans are giving Levis every chance to prove himself in his second season.
Year 2 improvements over Year 1
- Josh Allen: CMP% rose by six percentage points
- Jared Goff: Yards per attempt rose by 50.9%
- Carson Wentz: TD rate spiked by 188.5%
- Blake Bortles: INT rate dipped by over 17%
I’m not saying Levis is the next Josh Allen or even the next Jared Goff (he didn’t enter the league with pedigree at that level), but we can’t throw in the towel on him yet. If Levis overachieves, every member of this offense stands to benefit.
Nothing special, just Tyjae Spears glitching through a trans-dimensional gateway on this route break.
— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) February 2, 2023
Spears was allotted just one game with 10+ carries last season, a role I’d expect him to walk into 2024 with, regardless of how you feel about Pollard. It is, of course, worth noting that Pollard did ink a three-year deal for $21,750,000 (potential out after the 2025 season).
That indicates that Tennessee’s coaching staff is buying Pollard’s résumé (4.8 yards per carry) more than the down season as a featured back in 2023 (4.0 ypc and one of the worst seasons in terms of converting red-zone carries in recent memory).
What is the point in me saying all of this? Embrace the uncertainty.
Despite very limited usage as a rookie, Spears had five games with a 20+ yard touch and showed versatility that we weren’t sure was in his profile.
- College: 10.1% of touches were receptions
- 2023: 34.2% of touches were receptions
Unlike the Kupp/Woods situation from 2021, neither Pollard nor Spears is going to cost you much. At this moment, neither is being drafted as a fantasy starter, and it would surprise me if we finished the season without one of them as a locked-in weekly asset.
Tennessee’s Opponents Weeks 13-17
- JAX (twice): Gave up 289 yards to Henry/Spears last season
- WAS: Worst scoring defense
- CIN: Third-worst YPC run defense
- IND: Sixth-highest opponent rush rate
Given their current cost and end-of-season schedule, I’m more likely to draft both and hope for the best than I am to avoid this backfield altogether.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Analysis for Tyjae Spears
I ranked Spears and Pollard back-to-back at RB27 and RB28. Interestingly, their ADPs are quite far apart. Pollard sits at RB26, while Spears is at RB35. Spears landed at RB25 in PFN’s consensus projections.
This is your quintessential ambiguous backfield. I didn’t love what we saw from Pollard last season, but both of these players carry upside.
The Titans’ offense projects to be much more pass-heavy in a post-Henry world. That’s a good thing for Tennessee’s two running backs who are both receivers.
Additionally, both Spears and Pollard carry injury contingent upside in the event the other gets hurt. Neither is ever going to see 90% of the work, but if one misses time, the other will definitely see at least a modest uptick in volume. That makes both appealing options as fantasy RB3s this season. Given Spears’ price, he’s the one I am targeting more, though.