MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — Tua Tagovailoa says Tyreek Hill should be the Miami Dolphins‘ MVP. Cheetah says it’s the other way around. Who’s right? It’s a debate that’s important only insofar as Hill’s brilliance this year is used as a stick to bludgeon Tua.
And when the Dolphins’ offense scuffled in Week 14 when Hill was out of the game with an ankle injury, those who think Tagovailoa’s success this year is a reflection of those around him seized the moment with glee.
No mention from the nattering nabobs of negativism, of course, about the rough condition of the Dolphins’ offensive line in that game.
And even less chatter from those corners after Tagovailoa posted the seventh-best passer rating (so far) among NFL starters in Week 15 (119.4) — with Hill inactive due to that ankle injury.
Miami Dolphins’ QB Tua Tagovailoa Shines Without Tyreek Hill
Tagovailoa completed 21 of 24 passes for 224 yards and a touchdown against a top-five Jets pass defense. His completion percentage (87.5%) was the second-highest of his career.
Tagovailoa’s completion percentage over expectation was 13.5, the fourth-highest among NFL quarterbacks in Week 15.
And he did that with no Hill, one healthy offensive lineman (Terron Armstead), and a rushing attack that averaged just 2.8 yards per carry.
“Tua is handling it like he knows how,” Dolphins fullback Alec Ingold said Monday. “The roller-coaster of emotions outside of the building, he is one of the constants, as an NFL quarterback, to keep all those emotions in check — good, bad, or indifferent — and to stay consistent has been one of the biggest things for us as a team.
“So it’s great to see a leader be able to do that — stay stoic, stay in the moment, and deliver time again.”
Tagovailoa Gets It Done Without Cheetah
Sunday wasn’t the first time Tagovailoa has been on the field this year when Hill has not. Far from.
Tagovailoa has logged 314 more snaps than Hill in 2023 — which is basically the equivalent of five full games.
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That’s a robust sample size to compare how Tua performs with Tyreek — and without him.
The figures — provided by TruMedia — might surprise you.
Tua Tagovailoa With Tyreek Hill on the Field:
- 369 dropbacks
- 231 of 343 (67.3%)
- 2,950 yards
- 20 TDs
- 10 INTs
- 49.9% success rate
- 101.3 passer rating
- .16 EPA per dropback
- .17 EPA per pass attempt
- 8.6 yards per attempt
- 12.8 yards per completion
Tua Tagovailoa Without Tyreek Hill on the Field:
- 125 dropbacks
- 94 of 115 (81.7%)
- 971 yards
- 5 TDs
- 0 INTs
- 55.6% success rate
- 116.3 passer rating
- .19 EPA per dropback
- .21 EPA per pass attempt
- 8.4 yards per attempt
- 10.3 yards per completion
What do these stats suggest?
That the Dolphins’ passing offense is more explosive when the NFL’s most explosive player is on the field (no kidding, right?).
But it’s more efficient when he’s not.
Broadening the lens to account for the entire Dolphins’ offense with or without Hill, a couple of things stand out.
Tua Tagovailoa on the discourse pic.twitter.com/Yr1Pw16f3k
— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) December 17, 2023
The Dolphins’ average net yards per pass is a smidge higher when Hill is on the field (8.3 vs. 8.2), but their rushing average is way higher when he is not (5.5 yards per carry to 4.6).
This isn’t a perfect apples-to-apples comparison, however, as these stats include roughly four dozen plays when neither has been on the field this year.
But put it all together, and it’s comical at this point to argue that the Dolphins’ offense is solely a function of Hill’s greatness.
Rather, the evidence suggests that the Dolphins could survive without him.
Could it survive without Tua? Last year’s collapse with him in concussion protocol is a pretty robust sample size suggesting it cannot.
Which makes Tagovailoa not only the Dolphins’ most polarizing player but also their most valuable.
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