If you drafted Trey Sermon in your fantasy football league, you are likely very frustrated through the first three weeks. Unfortunately, that frustration does not look like it will be reduced, despite a nice matchup in Week 4. Let’s take a look at whether you should view Sermon as someone to start or sit in your fantasy lineups this week.
Update (10/03/21):Â Elijah Mitchell is inactive for the 49ers Week 4 matchup with the Seattle Seahawks
Trey Sermon has had a slow start for fantasy managers in 2021
There was a lot of excitement that Sermon could be a valuable fantasy asset in 2021. However, cold water was quickly doused on that fire in Week 1 when Sermon was announced as a surprise inactive behind three other backs. It seemingly took an injury for Raheem Mostert in Week 1 to even get Sermon on the field for Week 2.
Even then, Sermon was only briefly involved. In his only offensive snap, Sermon was left sprawled on the turf by a hit to the head during his first NFL carry. He would fumble the ball and remain prone on the field while the play went on around him. A penalty cleared the fumble, but Sermon was out with a concussion.
Fortunately for Sermon and his fantasy managers, the concussion did not linger. He was out of the protocol and active for Week 3 against the Packers. Additionally, the injury to Elijah Mitchell meant he was set to start his first game in the NFL. Sermon managed to find the end zone, but 34 yards on 12 touches was hardly an exciting return.
The Seahawks present a very favorable Week 4 matchup
The matchup for Sermon this week is a potential fantasy goldmine. When we look at fantasy points allowed to the RB position, no one is worse than the Seahawks. Seattle has allowed an average of 37.03 fantasy points per game to the RB position. While these numbers are somewhat twisted by Derrick Henry’s 3-touchdown game, that is not the entire story.
Overall, the Seahawks have allowed an average of 220 yards, 9 receptions, and 1 touchdown per game to the position. In Week 1, Indianapolis’ RBs had 90 rushing yards and 108 receiving yards between them on 12 receptions.
Henry would then post 182 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 6 receptions for 55 yards in Week 2. Most recently, in Week 3, Alexander Mattison posted 171 total yards on 32 touches. All of those numbers demonstrate how Sermon can have fantasy success in Week 4 if he is the starter.
Can you start Sermon in your Week 4 fantasy lineup?
The problem for Sermon’s fantasy managers is that this is an afternoon game. Therefore, while it appears as though Mitchell will be inactive in Week 4 according to Adam Schefter, if Mitchell is somehow active, he will likely be the starter. However, if Schefter’s report is correct, that role should belong to Sermon.
We know the matchup is nice, but unless you have another back to bring in if Mitchell is surprisingly active, you are taking a big risk trusting Sermon. Equally, the 49ers have a lot of depth at RB. In recent weeks, they’ve added Trenton Cannon and Jacques Patrick and elevated Kerryon Johnson from the practice squad.
Given the way Sermon performed last week, the 49ers may decide to split the majority of carries in Week 4. Additionally, this game could be a shootout, and that will limit Sermon’s opportunities. Even as a lead back, he had just 10 carries in Week 3.
There is no real way around it — making a decision about Sermon in fantasy lineups is going to leave a lot of people scratching their heads in Week 4.
