San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance is set to become the starter for the franchise in 2022 after playing a backup role last year. What is Lance’s fantasy football outlook for this season, and what’s his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
Trey Lance fantasy outlook for 2022
As soon as the 49ers traded three first-round picks and a 2022 third-round pick for the right to draft Lance with the No. 3 overall pick of the 2021 class, everyone knew it was only a matter of time before he was named the starting quarterback. Veteran Jimmy Garoppolo held onto the job while Lance was a rookie, but we will see the change this year. Garoppolo has been on the trade block all offseason and is essentially out of the picture in San Francisco.
It is good to know now that Lance will start the 2022 season from Day 1. The athletic passer started two games as a rookie and played in six total. He attempted 71 passes for 603 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. Lance added another 168 rushing yards and one score on the ground.
Lance is considered to have a mountainous upside thanks to the blend of his unique physical traits and the scheme that head coach Kyle Shanahan deploys. Shanahan is a masterful tactician who has squeezed the best career seasons out of every quarterback he’s coached. He’s had excellent pocket passers but never a freak athlete like Lance.
The thought of a premier dual-threat like Lance executing Shanahan’s offense helped skyrocket his value in both dynasty and redraft leagues in 2021. Lance barely played as Garoppolo stayed healthy, keeping him at bay with decent enough play. We were able to see both the rawness of Lance’s unrefined passing skill and the tantalizing physical gifts that project into stardom.
There’s not a ton to glean from Lance’s usage in 2021. His passing motion is inefficient like it was in college, and he is a dynamic runner. He’ll miss some of the easy throws that Garoppolo reliably hit, but he’ll also create big plays that his predecessor could never dream of.
Taking Lance is a clear play on the upside and a willingness to live and die by variance. Lance is in a fantastic situation to maximize his natural gifts, but he’ll also need time to fine-tune any level of advanced reads and consistent intermediate and deep accuracy. His collegiate experience was limited, and he was asked to hit wide-open receivers on one- or two-read routes. So, the adjustment will be considerable.
How the 49ers’ receiving corps impacts Trey Lance’s fantasy projection for the season
The best news fantasy managers received all offseason was that the 49ers would not trade Deebo Samuel. Samuel even received a contract extension during training camp, keeping him at least through 2022 and likely for much longer. Samuel’s presence is especially massive for Lance.
Because the offense has already been geared towards going through the playmakers and not dependant on the quarterback creating every chunk play, Lance will not have the usual pressure on him as most young signal-callers do. Shanahan creates easy valves for his quarterback using Samuel, George Kittle, a stable of running backs, and Brandon Aiyuk.
The 49ers don’t have the deepest receiver room in the league, but they maximize their skill sets. Samuel is an underrated route-runner and pure receiver who just happens to double as a capable rusher. Aiyuk is a skilled route-runner as well and has strong hands. Kittle is one of the most athletic tight ends in the NFL and a matchup nightmare.
Third-round rookie Danny Gray also adds a deep speed element to the offense. If Gray proves to be a solid role player, Lance will have four quality playmakers to target on top of whatever the scheme produces for him. This is why Lance has continued to be considered one of the top young fantasy quarterbacks despite his rawness in the pocket.
Lance’s ADP for 2022
It was always presumed that Lance would be the starter in 2022. But since we have known for sure, his ADP has risen. Lance’s ADP now sits around the 100th player taken as the QB13. That ADP really does reflect both the upside and the risk that come with the young QB. More established and safe QBs are being selected above him, but Lance is a clear tier ahead of the other second-year QBs like Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. That is an endorsement of just how much upside and excitement he brings.
When we look at PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, Lance is 97th overall as the QB11. That demonstrates how spot-on his ADP really is to his value right now. The upside is so tantalizing that you want to take the chance, but the risk is real enough that by Week 5, you could be looking for a safer starter to lean on while he develops.
The beauty of Lance’s current ADP is you can essentially draft him as your final starter. Therefore, you are not compromising other spots on your lineup to take the risk. In the first seven or eight rounds, you can build a roster that can support a low floor but high upside talent at the QB position.
Additionally, with this ADP, you can also look to add some insurance in the draft without feeling like you have over-invested in the position. Equally, at this ADP, you can pair Lance with an earlier QB pick if you want to grab the upside and provide yourself a valuable trade chip. In Superflex, Lance is riskier because you may yet need two more potential starting QBs if you select him. However, if you grab him as a QB2, that is almost perfect for him if you get some insurance later in the draft.
