The Jacksonville Jaguars’ nightmare 2024 season keeps getting worse. Another chapter got added ahead of the team’s Week 10 matchup with the Minnesota Vikings, as quarterback Trevor Lawrence won’t play due to a left shoulder injury. With each additional news item, the situation seems to worsen.
Below is the latest on the condition of the former No. 1 overall pick.
What Is Trevor Lawrence’s Injury?
Lawrence is dealing with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder. While we’ve seen many players play through sprained AC joints, Lawrence’s appears to be quite serious.
Since it’s his left shoulder, the Jaguars’ quarterback was able to throw at practice, getting in limited sessions all week. However, the main issue for Lawrence is what happens if he takes a hit.
It’s not clear what play caused the injury, assuming it was during the Week 9 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Lawrence appeared to be in reasonably solid shape during Wednesday’s practice, with Jacksonville reporter Demetrius Harvey tweeting out a video of him throwing.
#Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is expected to be limited at practice today.
Here he is throwing in the white helmet team will wear this Sunday against the Vikings. pic.twitter.com/uZDGRVE7S9
— Demetrius Harvey (@Demetrius82) November 6, 2024
Is Lawrence Playing in Week 10?
Initially, this didn’t seem like a significant threat to Lawrence’s availability. After all, he logged a practice, and with the injury to his non-throwing shoulder, it looked on the surface like one he could play through.
After Wednesday’s practice, Lawrence said, “That’s the goal,” when asked about playing in Week 10 while acknowledging he was still sore.
NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport had a much more ominous report on Thursday, however. Rapoport deemed Lawrence unlikely to play in Week 10 while also noting that he’s still weighing options that could potentially keep him out longer.
As #Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (left shoulder) continues to get treatment and weigh options for the future, sources say he’s considered unlikely to play Sunday vs the #Vikings.
Lawrence was limited in practice yesterday & coach Doug Pederson was noncommittal about his status. pic.twitter.com/9D4q5ogSe3
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 7, 2024
Oddly enough, former Washington head coach Jay Gruden inserted himself into the mix with a tweet citing his “sources” that Lawrence was headed for surgery. Rapoport debunked the idea that surgery was imminent, though he noted that’s still an option.
No surgery scheduled, Jay. There are several options immediate and down the road. That's one of them. He's considered day-to-day with a left shoulder.
But as he considers these options, Trevor Lawrence will likely not play Sunday. Mac Jones is the backup. https://t.co/xHnfzRUA1q
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 7, 2024
Gruden was the Jaguars offensive coordinator in 2020 (the year before Lawrence’s arrival). That was also his most recent coaching job of any kind, though he was an offensive consultant for the 2022 Los Angeles Rams.
As of Sunday morning, it now appears that surgery is the direction Lawrence is heading toward.
Trevor Lawrence signed a five-year, $275 million contract extension in June.
Now, a potentially season-ending AC joint sprain has Lawrence considering his rehab options — and the Jaguars starting Mac Jones.More with me and @MikeSilver ⤵️https://t.co/UuBMdtIp4B
— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) November 10, 2024
How Might Lawrence’s Absence Impact the Jaguars if Ruled Out?
With Jacksonville at 2-7, it’s feasible that the Jaguars could waive the white flag on the 2024 campaign and have Lawrence reset after a trying season.
There were rumors Lawrence could sit out the next two weeks and return after the team’s bye. However, by that point, Jacksonville will almost certainly have at least eight, if not nine, losses.
The Jaguars are already entering Week 10 in a six-way tie for the worst record in the NFL, so they could add a premium draft pick to help them regroup in 2025.
In the short term, a struggling Jacksonville offense would turn to Mac Jones under center. Jones was part of the same 2021 first-round draft class as Lawrence and has thrown nine passes over two games in his first year with Jacksonville.
PFN ranks Jones as the 11th-best backup quarterback. The former New England Patriots QB was a Pro Bowler as a rookie in 2021 but saw his play disintegrate amid questionable coaching from 2022-23. Jones had 22 passing touchdowns to 13 interceptions as a rookie but threw 24 touchdowns to 23 picks over the next two years combined.
It’s hard to say how much of a hit the Jaguars’ skill players would take from a fantasy football perspective.
PFN’s QB+ metric, which combines situational EPA (expected points added) and success rate metrics to form a grade, had Lawrence as the 23rd-ranked quarterback with a C-minus grade in 2024. With Christian Kirk out for the season, the passing game will likely funnel most of its targets toward Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram.