Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence entered the league with an elite pedigree and dreams of being the next face of the league, but things have yet to really take form. His next finish as a top-10 quarterback in fantasy football will be his first, and he isn’t being drafted anywhere near that in 2024 with Calvin Ridley out of town.
Is this the time to buy raw talent and hope that it translates into fantasy points?
Trevor Lawrence’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Only three players have had more pass attempts than Lawrence over the past two seasons, yet he ranks 10th at the position in touchdown passes and 12th in fantasy points per game over that stretch.
Trevor Lawrence with a back shoulder touchdown throw to Evan Engram to cut it to a one-score game!
— Austin Pendergist (@apthirteen) January 7, 2024
There are no two ways about it — Lawrence has come up short based on expectations. He’s burned your fantasy team not because of his production, but because of the draft capital you spent on him. By labeling him as a Tier 2 QB, you backed yourself into a corner and felt obligated to play him far longer than was reasonable.
He was drafted as the QB8 12 months ago, and he finished better than that just twice in the first half of the season, but you started him for all 10 of those games because of the price you paid on draft day. I know you did because I did. I fell for it too.
Things are different this season, however. He’s typically available at the very end of drafts, serving as depth for a fantasy roster more than anything. He’s now a low-risk, small-win type, and that makes him interesting.
Like Justin Herbert, we still trust the talent. But unlike Herbert, I have faith in his weapons. Christian Kirk is a professional target earner (even next to Ridley last season, he earned a target on a career-high 22.4% of his routes), and Evan Engram is fresh off of a season in which he recorded the second most catches by a tight end in a single season.
The interesting part is rookie Brian Thomas Jr.; the LSU product scored on 18.9% of his collegiate grabs and averaged 17.3 yards per catch in 2023. What if he gives this offense what they were hoping Ridley would?
Lawrence’s percentage of passing fantasy points on deep passes by season
- 2021: 24.2%
- 2022: 27.5%
- 2023: 39.2% (fourth most among qualifiers)
Is Lawrence that much different than Jordan Love or Dak Prescott? I’m not drafting him over those two, but they are going in the first half of drafts while Lawrence is left for QB punters/streamers.
The 550-250-2 club (pass attempts-rushing yards-rushing TDs) may not sound like the most exclusive of stat lines, but there are two QBs who have joined it in each of the past three seasons: Josh Allen and Lawrence
In fact, the only other QB to do it in two of those three seasons is Patrick Mahomes. At cost, Lawrence doesn’t offer any of the risks that we assumed in overhyping him last season; therefore, he’s a decent buy if you’re hoping to draft two QBs late and duct tape the position together this season.
That’s not a plan I find myself executing with regularity this season, but drafts can get away from you — if it does, Lawrence deserves to be on your short list of viable bail-out options.