Travis Kelce’s Best Ball Fantasy Outlook: Will the Kansas City Chiefs TE Bounce Back in 2024?

Despite finishing as a top-tier fantasy option, Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce disappointed last season. Is he a good pick in 2024 Best Ball drafts?

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce had a very underwhelming season by his standards.

Is Kelce declining, or can he return to being a true difference-maker at the position? How should fantasy football managers approach Kelce in 2024 Best Ball drafts?

Travis Kelce’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook

This is a tricky one. It shouldn’t be that tricky to evaluate a guy who has finished no lower than No. 2 at his position in fantasy points per game since 2016. Yet, here we are.

Kelce may have been the overall TE1 in 2023, but he didn’t do it with the usual Kelce-like numbers. He only averaged 14.6 points per game. With the Chiefs veteran tight end, we’ve come to expect WR1 numbers. Instead, he was merely great for a tight end.

Kelce’s 14.6 points per game marked his lowest average since 2016. Although it was his second consecutive top finish at the position from a points-per-game standpoint, he averaged a full 4.0 points per contest fewer than he did in 2022.

What makes Kelce worth a first or second-round pick is that he provides a massive edge at the position while producing like a WR1. Fantasy managers who draft Kelce aren’t forgoing a WR1 to take him — he is their WR1. That was the case in 2018, 2020, and 2022.

Specifically, in 2022, Kelce provided the single largest gap between the overall TE1 and overall TE2 in the history of fantasy football. Last year, every single top-12 tight end was closer to Kelce than the second-best tight end was in 2022. He was still the best, but the advantage was far, far less.

Should You Draft Kelce in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?

Kelce is now entering his age-35 season. He showed noticeable signs of decline last year. His target share dipped to 22.7%. He only averaged 10.6 yards per reception, down from 12.2 the year prior and easily the lowest of his career.

His five touchdowns were tied for the second-lowest mark of his career since 2017. He failed to reach 1,000 yards receiving for the first time since 2015.

Fantasy managers should recall how many disappointing games Kelce provided last year. However, recency bias is strong. Despite Kelce’s underwhelming fantasy season, he smashed in the NFL postseason, and that’s the last thing everyone is going to remember about him.

It’s impossible to know how things would’ve played out had Kelce continued to struggle during the playoffs. However, my guess is his ADP would’ve been a good 1-2 rounds lower than it will end up being. For me, that makes Kelce a bit overvalued.

I have never been one to advocate for an early-round tight end. That has never been more true than now, with so many young, talented tight ends bursting onto the scene.

Given that I no longer believe Kelce is capable of 16+ points per game, he is not someone I am going to target in the first 2-3 rounds of Best Ball drafts.

KEEP READING: Best Ball Stacking Strategy

If you want to secure a reliable tight end, take one of the guys in the Rounds 3-5 range, and don’t pass up on a high-end wide receiver for Kelce.

With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.

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