The Tennessee Titans running game is going to look a lot different without Derrick Henry sitting atop the rushing throne in the Music City this upcoming season. One of the players looking to claim Henry’s vacated crown is veteran RB Tony Pollard, who signed a lucrative three-year deal this offseason after spending his previous five years with the Dallas Cowboys.
What can fantasy managers expect from Pollard heading into the 2024 season?
Tony Pollard’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
It may be difficult to label Pollard’s RB14 finish in full-PPR formats a complete disaster in 2023, but considering the number of opportunities he was given in a high-powered scoring offense with the Cowboys last year … it certainly feels like a disaster.
Many had sky-high fantasy expectations for Pollard after his breakout 2022 season when Ezekiel Elliott was still around, vulturing away short-yardage scoring opportunities and north of 200+ carries away from the Memphis Tigers product.
Tony Pollard Fantasy Stats Over the Last Two Seasons
- 2023: 1,316 total yards, 307 total touches, 6 TDs (RB14)
- 2022: 1,378 total yards, 232 total touches, 12 TDs (RB8)
The yardage totals are similar enough, but finishing with 62 fewer total yards on 75 additional touches sounds the alarm for a catastrophic drop in efficiency on a per-touch basis last year.
To make matters worse, Pollard scoring half as many touchdowns on the aforementioned 75 additional touches from the season prior feels almost inexcusable given that he finished 2023 trailing only San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey in red-zone carries, scoring five rushing touchdowns on 60 carries inside opponents’ 20-yard line last season.
To further drive home the point, there were nine players to see more than 40 red-zone carries in 2023. Pollard finished dead last among those players by becoming one of those who failed to score six rushing touchdowns with that amount of volume in the red area.
To return to his efficiency struggles from last year, Pollard saw his yards per touch and yards after contact per attempt plummet from among the elite in the NFL in 2022 to below-average for a high volume back in 2023.
Now, he is set to join a Titans offense that is unlikely to generate the same amount of scoring opportunities and production that Pollard saw in Dallas. For some context, Dallas led the NFL with 71 trips to the red zone last season, while the Titans finished 23rd in that department.
The offensive line in Tennessee could be another issue, but the addition of offensive tackle prospect JC Latham from Alabama could help give this unit a more favorable outlook than last season.
Speaking of the Titans’ offensive line, they didn’t exactly do any favors for rookie RB Tyjae Spears in 2023. Yet, Spears still managed an RB34 overall finish with 453 rushing yards to go with 52 receptions for 385 yards and three total scores in his rookie year, operating exclusively behind King Henry.
Sure, those numbers aren’t exactly eye-popping, but one could make a legitimate argument Spears should see a significantly expanded role with his excellent per-touch efficiency behind a bad offensive line last year. Spears’ 5.5 yards per touch actually ranked sixth at the RB position and flashed impressive elusiveness and burst over his entire rookie campaign.
Pollard may have gotten the big payday and has some veteran accolades to suggest he may be the leading ball carrier to start the year. Yet, if Pollard’s struggles continue into 2024, don’t be surprised if Spears steals this backfield away from Pollard by the end of the year.
Fantasy managers are currently a bit stuck on what to do with Pollard at the moment. His ADP currently sits at No. 79 overall as the RB26 off the board, with his teammate (Spears) just 16 overall spots below him.
The idea of being in a committee backfield with another explosive and efficient player, operating behind a work-in-progress offensive line, and relying on second-year quarterback Will Levis to generate scoring opportunities consistently doesn’t exactly get many people excited about Pollard’s outlook in 2024.
Ultimately, if Pollard failed to produce a monster fantasy season in an elite fantasy situation last year in Dallas, then why would we expect him to live up to those expectations in Tennessee?
His seventh-round price tag isn’t terrible by any stretch, but I would just advise you to temper your expectations by suggesting Pollard’s day as a top-15 fantasy RB has probably come to an end.
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