Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is back for his 23rd season as he turns 45 years old. What is Brady’s fantasy football outlook for 2022 fantasy managers, and what’s his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Tom Brady fantasy outlook for 2022
Despite retiring for a brief three-week spell, the GOAT is back for his third season with the Buccaneers. Brady remains a fantasy football powerhouse despite his age, producing the third-most points of any quarterback in 2021. He led the NFL in every major passing stat last year, including completions, attempts, yards, and touchdowns.
Everything about Brady’s career just continues to be an anomaly. Tampa Bay had a healthy running game last year. Yet, they threw the ball as if they were constantly trailing. Brady logged the most passing attempts of his career by a whopping 83 attempts and fell just 19 yards shy of a career-high total.
As the NFC South has failed to create a true contender for Tampa’s crown and the Bucs saw head coach Bruce Arians retire, maybe this would be the year Brady takes a less active role in the offense. Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich stayed with the Bucs and directly worked with Brady to craft the unit’s direction over the last two years. But according to Leftwich, he’s been in control of the offense since taking over in 2019, so “nothing will change.”
Considering Tampa ranked sixth in passing attempts in 2020 and first in 2021, it’s safe to assume Brady’s volume will remain high. The Bucs ranked 29th and 31st over the last two years in rushing attempts despite repeated investments into tailbacks. For as attractive as Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White are as individual talents, the Bucs know Brady will produce the most efficient and explosive offensive possible.
Without a rushing floor, Brady’s fantasy production is capped
With an average of 22.7 fantasy points per game, Brady is dependent on passing volume to be a top-five option again. Many of his peers offer some upside rushing, and we didn’t even see either Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson play a full season in 2021. The margins are tight for Brady to be an elite fantasy quarterback.
If Brady averages 38 throws per game like he did in 2020 instead of 42 in 2021, we could easily see him slip closer to 10th amongst quarterbacks. He has a fantastic floor, but his ceiling has him priced lower than dual-threat quarterbacks.
How the Buccaneers’ depth chart impacts Tom Brady’s fantasy projection for this season
One of the most enjoyable parts of Brady’s tenure with Tampa has been their repeated investments into surrounding playmakers. They squeezed as much as they could out of Antonio Brown until he flew off the handle one too many times. They replaced Brown with Russell Gage on a $10 million-a-year contract this offseason to ensure there was little drop-off as Chris Godwin returns from a torn ACL. They also added Julio Jones at the start of training to camp, loading up on options around Brady.
Trading out Brown’s athleticism for a more reliable on- and off-field presence may hurt Brady’s fantasy ceiling, though. Brown was able to produce in spurts, with four outings of 93 yards or more in seven games played last year. He and Brady shared a unique chemistry that won’t easily be matched since none of the aforementioned players have the same skill set Brown had.
Losing tight end Rob Gronkowski will be a notable blow for the Buccaneers’ offense. Many feel as though Gronk will eventually return to the team, but it’s hard to know. He’s dealt with a number of injuries throughout his career that are surely weighing on his mind as he considers his long-term well-being.
The Buccaneers are still stacked, and Brady will make the best of what he has in place. Until Godwin returns, he has enough talent with Mike Evans, Gage, Jones fighting for his career, and a slew of young receivers that are fighting for playing time. Whether it’s Jaelon Darden, Tyler Johnson, Breshad Perriman, or Cyril Grayson, Brady has shown he will produce a quality offense regardless of the name on the back of the jersey.
The hole Gronk leaves at tight end is more interesting. Veteran Cameron Brate is a fine starter but is not nearly as dynamic as Gronk. Will one of Cade Otton and Ko Kieft emerge as a rookie threat, or will the Buccaneers look at Jared Cook as a free agent if Gronk does not return?
Brady is unlikely to reach his 2021 levels
Only Josh Allen attempted more passes in the red zone than Brady last year. Impressively, Brady threw zero interceptions on 128 attempts but 32 touchdowns. He added two rushing scores via QB sneaks as well.
While I certainly would not bet that Brady has a bad year, his fantasy outlook for 2022 has taken a dip after considering the losses of Gronk, Brown, and factoring in any missed time from Godwin. Taking Brady gives high-end stability since he has not missed a game since 2016, whereas the dual-threat quarterbacks are at a unique risk because of their play style.
However, the likelihood of Brady replicating his 2021 efficiency and volume is low due to the factors we’ve listed.
Brady’s ADP for 2022
Brady’s ADP for the 2022 season currently sees him going off the board around 80th overall as the QB9. Those numbers are intriguing because Brady is ranked 78th in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings as the QB6. That largely suggests Brady’s value is about right as it stands. Additionally, there is every chance you can watch other teams take lesser-ranked players before you swoop in and select Brady.
Expecting Brady to be as good as his QB3 finish last year would be unwise. However, finishing somewhere between that and the QB8 finish he achieved in his first year in Tampa is somewhat realistic.
Your approach to drafting Brady largely reflects your approach to the QB position in general. If you are happy to take a QB when his value matches his ADP, then Brady might be ideal, while also potentially offering value at the position. However, if you prefer to go for QB1 overall ceiling at the position, Brady might not be for you.
Additionally, if you are not willing to spend a mid-round selection on a QB, then you are unlikely to wind up with Brady in drafts. What we do know is roughly what Brady will give you on a weekly basis. He will more than likely throw the ball at least 30 times a game and potentially sit closer to 40 on average. That is a valuable commodity in terms of floor, even if the ceiling is capped.
