It’s a warm-up game in our Toledo vs. Western Michigan college football betting prediction as the MAC West champs take on the Broncos ahead of their MAC Championship Game appearance next week. Will the Toledo Rockets get back on track after a slip-up against Bowling Green last week, or will they continue to rest their starters for the title game?
Toledo vs. Western Michigan Betting Preview
- Spread
Toledo (-7.5) - Moneyline
Toledo (-295); Western Michigan (+245) - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI - Predicted weather at kickoff
45 degrees, partly cloudy, 11-12 mph winds - How to watch
fuboTV, ESPN U
Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays
- QB Tucker Gleason, Toledo ($11,000)
- QB Dequan Finn, Toledo ($11,000) *Doubtful
- QB Treyson Bourguet, Western Michigan ($7,600)
- QB Jack Salopek, Western Michigan ($7,600)
- RB Sean Tyler, Western Michigan ($8,300)
- RB Micah Kelly, Toledo ($7,100)
- RB Peny Boone, Toledo ($6,700)
- RB Jacquez Stuart, Toledo ($6,500)
- WRJerjuan Newton, Toledo ($8,500)
- WR Devin Maddox, Toledo ($6,800)
- WR Corey Crooms, Western Michigan ($6,600)
- WR DeMeer Blankumsee, Toledo ($6,500)
- WR Mikel Barkley, Toledo ($5,700)
- WR Anthony Sambucci, Western Michigan ($5,700)
- WR Jehlani Galloway, Western Michigan ($5,600)
- WR Thomas Zsiros, Toledo ($5,400)
- TE Jamal Turner, Toledo ($6,900)
- TE Blake Bosma, Western Michigan ($4,800)
The game and your DFS lineups will ultimately come down to one question: Does Dequan Finn play for Toledo? If Finn is to play in this game, he’s a must-start option at quarterback. In just nine games, he’s rushed for eight touchdowns and thrown for 21.
That kind of production is not easy to replace, no matter how good Tucker Gleason is. As he seemed like a very healthy scratch on the sidelines last week against Bowling Green, don’t expect to see him in this game here.
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With nothing to play for, the Rockets may be a shell of themselves on both sides of the ball, but especially if they’re without the services of Finn. As such, you may be able to load your roster up with WMU players for the first time this season.
But by load up your roster with WMU players, it just simply means play Sean Tyler at running back. Tyler is averaging over 4.5 yards per carry and is slightly over 100 yards away from hitting the 1,000-yard mark again this season.
Tyler is in play, as is Corey Crooms, WMU’s leading receiver in every category. In fact, the Broncos have 10 receiving touchdowns this year and five of them have gone to Crooms. He’s in play for more looks his way, as this game won’t be in a blizzard like their last outing was.
Prediction for Toledo vs. Western Michigan
The prediction is almost impossible to write without knowledge of Toledo’s starting quarterback situation. If Finn plays, the advantage shifts heavily toward Toledo, and you should expect to see the line move accordingly.
If Gleason is in the lineup again, the offensive makeup changes for the Rockets. They become one-dimensional but not in the traditional sense. Toledo becomes a pass-first team with no threat to move the ball on the ground.
Sure, Gleason has shown flashes of his athleticism, but he’s no Finn with the ball in his hands. Not to mention, with Gleason in the lineup, Jacquez Stuart, Micah Kelly, and Peny Boone each make a bigger impact in the game.
MORE: College Football Playoff Predictions Week 13
Unfortunately for Rockets’ fans, that impact has been mitigated because of below-average offensive line play from Toledo and the lack of elusiveness from the trio of backs. In their last game, all three RBs averaged less than two yards per carry when combined.
It was an ugly affair on the ground and one that seemed like Toledo was out of it until the action was forced upon them.
The under is in sight here, as Toledo will once again likely look to run the ball, keep the clock moving, and get to the MAC Championship Game with limited injuries to their stars. That opens the door to WMU pulling an upset or at least keeping it closer than even anticipated.
Prediction: Toledo 24, Western Michigan 20
