Minnesota Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson was in the midst of the best season of his career when a late-season ACL tear sidelined him.
Hockenson will be back, but will he return soon enough and effective enough to return value for fantasy football managers?
T.J. Hockenson’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
For years, Hockenson was lauded as this great fantasy option. Yet, the production never matched the hype. He was good, but he didn’t move the needle. Last year, that all changed.
Hockenson has trended upwards his entire career, improving every year. In his third season, he averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game. That ticked up to 12.7 in his fourth year in 2022.
It was only this past season that Hockenson truly ascended into the ranks of the difference-makers, averaging 14.6 points per game and finishing as the TE2.
There’s no denying Hockenson’s 2023 season was impressive. He caught 95 passes for 960 yards and five touchdowns, and his 24.3% target share led the league. That came despite him playing with a mixture of starting QBs last season.
Hockenson posted a number of elite results in various performance metrics. His 1.94 yards per route run was fifth in the NFL, and his 25.6% targets-per-route-run rate was second, evidencing his ability to command targets when running routes.
Before we even discuss the injury, we need to put Hockenson’s 2023 season in proper context.
Was Hockenson really a different player? He actually averaged 12.5 ppg over the first half of the season, right in line with his normal level of production. Over his final seven games, he became the needle-mover, averaging 17.3 ppg.
What happened? Justin Jefferson got hurt.
In the seven games Jefferson missed, Hockenson’s volume increased drastically. He saw 2.61 more targets per game and averaged 22.5 more receiving yards.
This season, the Vikings’ offense will look exactly like it did last season — except instead of Kirk Cousins at quarterback, they will have Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy. It’s hard to imagine Hockenson producing as well with Darnold/McCarthy as he did with Cousins.
Jefferson is going to remain the alpha and command a 30% target share when on the field. Jordan Addison is another year more experienced. The team added pass-catching RB Aaron Jones. All of this points to Hockenson’s volume returning to normal levels, and his production falling more in line with what he did with Jefferson in the lineup.
Hockenson’s ADP is currently TE13, No. 121 overall. He’d be going inside the top five in rounds 4-5 had he not gotten hurt. We’re getting a significant injury-related discount.
The question is, how many zeroes are you willing to eat for the potential at a top-five tight end over the second half of the season?
I have Hockenson ranked as my TE15. Essentially, I put him at a spot where I no longer feel good about drafting any of the available TEs, and might as well take a shot at Hockenson’s late-season upside.
Even so, I am not in the business of drafting injured players. My Hockenson ranking isn’t fake — I would take him over the remaining TEs.
However, in an actual draft, what it really means is I won’t draft a tight end until someone else takes Hockenson. If we’ve reached the point where Hockenson is the top TE available, I’ve punted the position, and won’t be taking one until the last round or two.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Analysis for T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson’s ADP at No. 116 overall in the 10th round as the TE12 off the board is strictly tied to the status of his recovering knee. If he starts getting on the field more often or there’s a positive update about his status for the season opener (or even Week 2), his ADP will skyrocket into the fourth or fifth-round range.
Yet, there is a real possibility that Hockenson could start the first month of the 2024 NFL season on the shelf, which means this will likely be his price point when fantasy drafts roll around.
When healthy, Hockenson has a TE1 overall fantasy ceiling. His production in Minnesota on a per-game basis confirms this potential range of outcomes. The questions surrounding the status of his knee and the concerns about Darnold potentially lower his ceiling a bit, but I still believe Hockenson is a top-five fantasy TE when healthy in 2024.
Ultimately, the goal entering every fantasy season is to win the championship. Even a pessimistic outlook for Hockenson has him available by Week 8 — which means he should be up to full speed by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around. To me, if you can get a top-five option at tight end in the 10th round who could help elevate your fantasy team to championship heights when it matters most, you have to pull the trigger.