The Tennesee Titans will travel to take on the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10. Here’s our early pick and prediction for this matchup, with insights from our PR+ metric, which has guided us to a 16-9 record on plays over the last three weeks.
If you’re looking for other games, check out our Early Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Nov. 3, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5, 38)
The Los Angeles Chargers haven’t looked like the most convincing 5-3 team in the league, but that is often the case for a team that is carried by its defense. LA’s defense ranks first this year, yet the offense is all the way down in 27th. Complicating matters slightly is that the Chargers have played the seventh-easiest schedule to this point, so we don’t truly know how good they are right now.
What we do know is that the Tennessee Titans are worse in all three areas of the game, ranking 29th on offense and 12th on defense. They have played the ninth-hardest schedule, but that doesn’t make a huge difference when you look at the Titans’ performances against the Patriots and Colts.
The thought of backing the Chargers’ offense to score enough points to cover an 8.5-point line is scary, but they’ve won by more than 10 four times this season when facing lesser teams. Will Levis could be back for Tennessee, which only enhances the urge to take Los Angeles laying the points this week.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Titans 13
Pick: Chargers -8.5
Titans at Chargers Game Stats and Insight
Tennessee Titans
Team: The Titans are allowing a league-low 1.75 deep completions per game this season (the Chargers rank 24th in deep passes completed per game, 2.50).
QB: Over the past two weeks, Mason Rudolph is averaging 12 yards per completion. In Week 9, per our QB+ metric, he graded out better than Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen.
Offense: Tennessee is turning the ball over a league-high 2.13 times per game this season.
Defense: The Titans own the sixth best defense in the league in terms of success rate (62.1%).
Fantasy: The Titans are a tough watch, but Tony Pollard’s role is nothing short of elite – he has multiple catches in every game and at least 16 carries in seven of eight.
Betting: The Titans went 0-2 ATS on the road in October and are 2-9 ATS on the road over their past 11 – both of those covers came against the Dolphins. They are not playing the Dolphins this week.
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: The Chargers continue to flirt with it, but they’ve yet to see 40 points scored in a game this season (32-39 points scored in all four games since the Week 5 bye).
QB: Justin Herbert has 910 passing yards over his past three games (first five games: 815 passing yards).
Offense: This season, the Chargers are 5-0 when they clear 15 points.
Defense: By total defensive EPA, the Chargers are the best defense in the league (18% better than the second-place Minnesota Vikings).
Fantasy: J.K. Dobbins is averaging 13.8 yards per carry on touchdowns this season and 4.5 on carries that don’t end up in the end zone.
Betting: Unders are 9-2 in the Chargers’ past 11 home games (3-0 this season, with each of those games going under the total by at least 7.5 points).