This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants features an abundance of fantasy football-relevant players between the two teams. While CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers are obvious starts every week, there is less certainty around the other skill-position players on the Cowboys and Giants.
Ahead of tonight’s game, we examine the fantasy outlooks for everyone who could be in your lineup for Week 4.
- Spread: Cowboys -4.5
- Total: 44
- Cowboys implied points: 23.8
- Giants implied points: 19.3
Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy Outlook
Elliott has seen his snap share trend in the wrong direction (50% snap share in Week 1, 39.4% in Week 2, and just 20% last week), and without any explosion left in his veteran legs, you’re chasing a touchdown if you’re considering going this path.
In theory, this is the right situation to do that. You’ve got a heavy favorite on short rest, but what’s the ceiling? If Elliott’s touch count is going to tap out at 10, there’s a chance he could score and still not pay the bills (his next 10-yard rush this season will be his first).
If I have to pick a Cowboy back in this spot, it’s Elliott, but that’s the beauty in fantasy — you’re not under any obligation at all to play a Cowboy RB.
Rico Dowdle Fantasy Outlook
Dowdle was targeted on the first play of Week 3 and touched the ball on each of Dallas’ first three plays. In an offense that always ranks among the top 10 in pass rate over expectation, I love seeing consecutive five-target contests from the 26-year-old.
For me to commit to him as a Flex option, I need to see some growth in the snap share department. Dowdle has checked in between 43-46% in all three games this season, and with Elliott still the favorite to get the high-value rush attempts, that’s just not enough field time to realize the potential I believe him to have.
Elliott may be my pick for Week 4, but for Weeks 4-18, give me Dowdle as the top-scoring back in Dallas.
Devin Singletary Fantasy Outlook
Depending on how your Week 3 matchup ended will 100% skew how you view Singletary’s 108-yard, 18.8-PPR point performance in Cleveland. Of course, that stat line is strong and you’d sign up for 14 more of them for New York’s lead back, but he laid down on the one-yard line to end this game and cost you 6.1 fantasy points in the process.
That’s fantasy.
For every instance like this, you’ll have a receiver that was overthrown by 10 yards but the defense somehow butchers the interception and it actually results in a significant gain. If you play fantasy long enough, these odd happenings have a way of leveling out.
Singletary has played over 69% of the offensive snaps in all three Giant games this season, but he’s also lost a fumble in consecutive games. For a team operating on the margins offensively, the loss of possession is simply unacceptable.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (a fifth-round pick out of Purdue) isn’t yet a threat to take over this backfield, but he did have more touches against the Browns last week (seven) than he had total entering the game (five) and turned those opportunities into 40 yards.
Singletary remains an RB2 for the time being, but his hold on that role is tenuous. The Giants have been competitive in each of the past two weeks, something that might not be the case over the next month (Weeks 4-8: Cowboys, Seahawks, Bengals, Eagles, and Steelers).
In a less active league, you’re squeezing what value you can out of Singletary. If you’re the move-making type, it’s very possible that we are at the peak of the mountain in terms of his 2024 value and selling him to the highest bidder (maybe a desperate 1-2 manager who is struggling to deal with the Christian McCaffrey injury?) is the play.
CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Outlook
A lost fumble in the red zone isn’t ideal, nor are whispers that the vibes in Big D aren’t exactly strong, but if there’s one thing we can all count on, it’s Lamb.
Despite the entire world knowing that this offense funnels through its WR1, Lamb is the only player in the league with a 30+ yard grab in all three weeks this season, a streak that could well continue against a defense that allows the third-most yards per catch after the reception since the beginning of last season.
The Cowboys handed Lamb the ball three times in the season-opening win in Cleveland, something I think there’s a good chance we see again as this team looks to rebound from consecutive losses. You can feel comfortable in the price you spent on Lamb — you’re going to be just fine long-term and you might have your Week 4 matchup in hand before a single game kicks off on Sunday.
Brandin Cooks Fantasy Outlook
I tried to warn you this summer that Father Time was closing in on Cooks. He scored on an all-out blitz in Week 1, but outside of that, all the red flags that presented themselves last season are even more evident this year.
In 2023, Cooks averaged a career-low 1.25 yards per route run — through three weeks, his rate is essentially half of that. Combine his declining efficiency with Prescott’s recent limitations as a road favorite (last six such spots: 210 passing yards per game without multiple scores on four occasions), and we are looking at a player who is nowhere near my starting lineup this week.
Jalen Tolbert has cleared 13 fantasy points in consecutive games and might out-earn Cooks moving forward given how things have looked over the last 12 months for the veteran. If you want to stash him as a bet against Cooks, you have my stamp of approval.
Malik Nabers Fantasy Outlook
If he continues to improve at this rate, he might be the greatest receiver in the league — by December.
OK, that might be a bit strong, but there isn’t a box the rookie has yet to check. Nabers is making plays at all three levels, turning incompletions into touchdowns, and being handed the ball on an early end-around, all things earning him the confidence of this coaching staff to continue to push the envelope.
Nabers’ usage, Weeks 2-3
45% of NYG receptions
49.5% of NYG receiving yards
50% of NYG targets
If I have to nitpick for this specific matchup, it’s that New York moved Nabers to the slot much more last week and that Dallas is the third-best yards-per-attempt defense when defending the slot.
If the G-Men push him back to the perimeter for 80% of his routes this week, another big game could be in store. Even if you don’t have confidence that this coaching staff will adjust, there’s no way you can justify sitting the role that Nabers has assumed.
Wan’Dale Robinson Fantasy Outlook
I wasn’t sure that this offense could sustain one pass catcher on a weekly basis and, as it turns out, I was right. They have two!
Robinson, albeit in a far less visually appealing manner than Nabers, has been lineup-worthy in a WR3/Flex sort of way in all three weeks. If you extend his current pace for an entire season, we are talking about roughly 85 catches and six touchdowns. Laugh all you want, but that is 2023 Chris Olave/DeVonta Smith but with less yardage.
His range of outcomes is very narrow, and that may not be an exciting profile, but I promise you that there will be a point over the next two months when you’re begging for a reliable PPR stat line.
For the first time this season, Robinson has cracked my top 40 at the position, and he needs to be rostered across the board with bye weeks approaching.
Dak Prescott Fantasy Outlook
“There are no pictures on the scorecard.”
That saying, I’m told, is common in golf circles. When I golf, my scorecard reflects exactly how bad every shot of mine was, but when you’re good at something, sometimes you can save a bad day. That is what Prescott did last week against the Ravens, leading a furious comeback effort that ultimately fell short.
379 yards, three total touchdowns
That’ll play any week, but the fantasy point total reflects a higher level of play than what we saw for the majority of Week 3 from Prescott. That said, the confidence he gained from moving the ball late against a good Baltimore defense should carry over for this plus-matchup on a short work week.
Like the ‘Boys in this game? In Dallas’ last three road wins against the Giants, their franchise QB has averaged 325.3 pass yards while throwing 10 touchdown passes against just a single interception (118.9 passer rating).
Generally speaking, I’m lower than the industry on Prescott, so when I tell you that I have him inside my top 10, you should feel good about rolling him out there and getting a nice lead in your Week 4 matchup during the first game of the week.
Daniel Jones Fantasy Outlook
I spent all offseason worrying about Jones’ ability to support Malik Nabers, not once considering that the rookie might be able to support his quarterback’s production.
Mr. Dimes has recorded consecutive QB1 finishes and is the only signal-caller this season to have two straight games with at least 20 rushing yards and two touchdown passes (this is the third such streak of his career; he’s never reached three in a row).
I’m still gun-shy on Jones (without Nabers, I’m not sure how many touchdown passes he realistically would have this season), and his history in this matchup is all the fuel I need to continue to rank him outside of my top 15.
In his last four starts against America’s Team (all losses), Jones has completed just 54% of his passes (5.5 yards per attempt), with one of those 113 attempts resulting in six points. In those games, he’s run for 36.3 yards per game (zero touchdowns), a nice bump to his fantasy stock, not nearly enough to make him remotely close to viable in this spot.
There are better things to do on a Thursday night than have the fate of your fantasy roster tied to this Giants passing attack in any capacity.
Jake Ferguson Fantasy Outlook
After missing Week 2, Ferguson was as involved as ever with a career-high 11 targets, solidifying himself as a lineup-lock for this pass-centric Cowboys offense.
Dallas entered the season with more questions at their WR2 position than most were willing to admit, as Brandin Cooks’ eight touchdown catches in 2023 masked a career low in yards per route run. Three weeks into this season, their WR2 role remains a big question mark, allowing Ferguson to spread his wings as a target earner.
2024: Targeted on 26.7% of his routes
2023: Targeted on 19.7% of his routes
Fantasy sports are often about focusing on what will be rather than getting hung up on what has been. The Cowboys have faced the Browns, Saints, and Ravens through three weeks — there’s a good chance those are three of their five toughest matchups this season.
Last week’s 6-95-0 stat line was just the beginning; you’ve got a difference-maker at the position that is the toughest to fill with confidence.