The Thursday Night Football matchup between the New York Jets and New England Patriots does not have a tremendous depth of fantasy football talent set to be on the field, but that does not mean there are no options to consider.
The likes of Rhamondre Stevenson, Breece Hall, Aaron Rodgers, and Garrett Wilson could get fantasy teams off to a flying start in Week 3.
Let’s break down the game and look at the main fantasy options managers should be starting and sitting on this week.
- Spread: Jets -6
- Total: 38.5
- Patriots implied points: 16.3
- Jets implied points: 22.3
Rhamondre Stevenson Fantasy Outlook
If you gave me 25 guesses a month ago, I’m not sure I would have landed on Stevenson as the name on the RB8 line through two weeks, but here we are. One player last season had consecutive games with 20+ carries, 2+ catches, and a rushing touchdown. His name: Christian McCaffrey. Stevenson has opened the season doing just that (the last Patriot RB to do it was Dion Lewis in 2017) and yet, I remain skeptical.
Very skeptical.
Not only has he turned his eight targets into just 15 receiving yards, but he is the sole focal point of opposing defenses. The Patriots have pounded him into a loaded box (eight-plus defenders) on 45.7% of his carries this season, the sixth-highest rate and a trend I don’t see reversing given the lack of upside this offense has access to through the air.
Stevenson is a good story through two weeks and will be a better one for you if you can flip him for a reliable RB2 moving forward. The game script has largely worked in his favor, something I’m not sure we see a ton of for the remainder of the season, especially down the stretch when your playoff life is at stake.
Week 14: Bye
Week 15: at Cardinals
Week 16: at Bills
This week, I expect a low-possession game and for the Jets to control the scoreboard. Stevenson, despite his success up to this point, is not a top-20 option at the position for me.
Breece Hall Fantasy Outlook
If Hall is getting 21 touches for 114 yards and a touchdown, I’m not really worried about the role. Yes, I understand that Braelon Allen looked good (56 yards and a pair of touchdowns on nine touches). That just reinforced my opinion that he – with Jordan Mason now the starter in San Francisco – sits atop the handcuff rankings, not that he is ready to truly take food off the plate of Hall.
RODGERS TO BREECE HALL. @nyjets take the lead!
📺: #NYJvsTEN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/9YO7lGki4Y— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
The touchdown catch was not only a thing of beauty, but it speaks to something that Hall’s raw talent couldn’t assure us of entering this season – the blind trust of his quarterback.
Now that we know that, Hall is a threat to lead all Flex players in fantasy points this season.
His score came on the heels of a 30-yard run after a slow first half. He is never far away from breaking open a drive and that potential – combined with what likely will be an improving offensive environment with each passing week – makes him a difference-maker who could lead you to the promised land this winter.
Garrett Wilson Fantasy Outlook
Impatient fantasy managers are looking for more from Wilson in short order, and while I understand that sentiment, the breadcrumbs for an explosion have been laid.
2023: 25.6% below fantasy expectations
2024: 23.9% below fantasy expectations
In both games this season, Rodgers has hooked up with Wilson on a high-communication play that typically takes more than a single (disjointed) offseason to develop. He’s turned 17 targets into just 21.7 PPR points up to this point, but you drafted Wilson as your WR1 with the hopes that he would be a top-10 producer in December, not September.
This may not be a get-right spot (albeit in vastly different situations, Wilson has just 94 receiving yards total over his past three games against the Pats), though benching him is outright irresponsible due to the concentration of this offense and your belief in his talent.
Target share for the Wilson/Hall tandem:
- Week 1: 58.6%
- Week 2: 48.3%
A pair of Jets were drafted as elite fantasy options this summer and through two weeks, I have no issue in maintaining my belief that a pair of Jets will finish the 2024 season as elite fantasy options.
Allen Lazard Fantasy Outlook
I’m old enough to remember when Lazard had a big game and was a popular add by fantasy managers chasing that production.
The 6-89-2 stat line in Week 1 was cute, but his 2-11-0 disaster against the Titans on Sunday is probably a little more predictive as to what we can expect moving forward. I mentioned the Hall/Wilson target share that I don’t believe is going to fade and Mike Williams saw his snap share increase from 18.4% in Week 1 to 64.3% last week.
This is a slow offense that is going to rely on efficiency over volume. Counting on a second pass catcher in this offense scares me – and I don’t think Lazard is merely that moving forward.
Mike Williams Fantasy Outlook
I stand by my preseason prior that there will be a time and a place for Williams to slide into your Flex spot (deeper formats), but we aren’t there yet. He was on a very specific snap count restriction to open the season and, true to reporting, the Jets are lengthening his leash much the way they did with Hall off of the ACL last season.
Williams isn’t a Flex option this week, and I don’t think he is a must-roster until this offense finds its groove (though I’m still stashing in leagues with deeper benches). Through two weeks, they are actually averaging fewer red-zone trips this season (2.0) than they did during the mess that was 2024 (2.2).
I think you’re going to want this scoring equity down the stretch (Dolphins-Jaguars-Rams-Bills to close the fantasy season).
New England’s WR1 Fantasy Outlook
Even a below-average passing game can produce a viable receiver at times (just look at the Jets during Garrett Wilson’s career up to this point), but the Patriots shouldn’t be viewed as such. Yardage isn’t everything, but where do you think New England’s leading receiver ranks at the position league-wide through two weeks in terms of receiving yards?
88th.
There are 87 receivers in a 32-team league, which features as much versatility at the RB/TE positions as ever, who have more receiving yards than K.J. Osborn this season. Ja’Lynn Polk scored last week and generated some sleeper hype in August. He’s the “best” player in this receiving room, but that doesn’t mean a thing to fantasy managers playing in anything outside of AFC East-only leagues.
Jacoby Brissett Fantasy Outlook
The Patriots have punched above their weight through two weeks this season (+3 point differential for a team most, myself included, had checking in with under five victories this season). But the more successful this team is, the less of a chance their passing game has to return any value whatsoever.
This is the fifth-run-heaviest team in the league (57.7%), and Brissett’s season passing line (270 yards and one touchdown) reflects a single game rather than half a month. Drake Maye’s skill set is more fantasy-friendly, but until they make that move — and they have no real reason to right now given their competitive start — you can ignore the position in New England, even in 2QB formats.
Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Outlook
I thought Rodgers looked better on Sunday than he did in Week 1, a trend I suspect to continue as the season wears on. That said, he’s still a ways away from being viable in 1QB formats.
In both games this season, the future Hall of Famer has come up short of 180 passing yards and failed to complete even 62% of his passes.
The Patriots have allowed a league-high 27 slot completions this season (81.8% completion rate when targeting that area on the field), giving me confidence that Rodgers might find more layup completions in this game than he has up to this point. However, with the Jets running just 105 plays thus far (tied for fourth-fewest), the sheer volume is also working against him, in addition to the natural rust/learning curve that we all expected Rodgers to go through.
Hunter Henry Fantasy Outlook
Through two weeks, the Patriots have one (1) player with more than 36 receiving yards and don’t have a receiver with more than 28. Henry has more receptions (10) than any of his teammates has targets. If there is a player in this passing game to have on your radar, it’s Henry, though that is a big “if.”
Henry (four straight games against the Jets with under 25 receiving yards) checks in as TE17 for me this week, behind the likes of Mike Gesicki and Colby Parkinson.
Tyler Conklin Fantasy Outlook
I thought he could be a reasonable floor option in this offense, a role he filled about as well as could realistically be expected last season.
I no longer think that.
Conklin has four targets and 16 yards on his 2024 résumé. Live and learn. If you’re streaming the position, you can do better.