The first game of Week 2 is an AFC East battle between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. There will be plenty of offensive talent on the field Thursday, but the total has been steadily dropping all week, with historical trends raising concerns about how high-scoring this game could be.
Let’s take a look at what our NFL betting experts think will happen with our Thursday Night Football prop bets for Week 2.
Recommended Prop Bets for Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Sept. 12, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD (+220) | Kyle Soppe
Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 Receptions (+100) | Soppe
As we get ready for this fun divisional battle, there are some things we know. We know that Josh Allen has played the Dolphins 13 times (playoffs included), and that he’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in every one of those contests (you can get him to extend that streak at +100).
We know that Dalton Kincaid was on the field for 87.9% of Buffalo’s snaps in their Week 1 win. And we know that the alpha target earner is up for grabs in Buffalo’s offense.
Taking all of that into consideration, we can approach the props market in an aggressive manner.
Since the beginning of last season, no team has allowed a higher red-zone completion percentage than Miami (66.7%, NFL average: 55.4%). All signs are pointing to the Bills (third in percentage of trips that reach the red zone since the beginning of last season) having success moving the ball, and given that they prioritized keeping Kincaid on the field last week, I’m happy to back all of his props in this spot.
The touchdown angle has my attention when it comes to the juiciest price tag, but I don’t think there’s a wrong way to go about investing in the tight end. Last season, Kincaid averaged 5.8 catches per game when playing at least two-thirds of the snaps, and his low depth of target (4.6 yards) in those games breeds efficiency.
In addition to him finding paydirt, I’ll have exposure to Kincaid clearing 4.5 catches, a prop that carries a plus-money price tag this week — a near 50-cent jump in payout from where the exact prop stood last week against the Cardinals.
Curtis Samuel Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-125) | Brian Blewis
Going into this season, there was a lot of intrigue as to how the target distribution would look for Allen’s new set of receivers.
Curtis Samuel was one of the many new faces added to the Bills’ offense in free agency, and the early returns after Week 1 were not promising.
Samuel finished the day catching both of his two targets for a total of 15 yards. While Keon Coleman was Buffalo’s only player with more than three targets, Samuel was a distant fourth among their wide receivers in both snaps and routes run, according to TruMedia.
This week, his line is at 18.5, and considering his career history of having a low aDOT, I feel comfortable taking this under because of his low usage.
James Cook Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-105) | Blewis
When Joe Brady took over as interim offensive coordinator last season, the Bills shifted towards a more run-heavy approach. Going into this season, that was expected to be the case again after Buffalo parted ways with their two most productive receivers.
After Week 1, that has so far proven to be correct, as the Bills were 23rd in pass rate over expectation. Keep in mind too that in their win over the Cardinals, they trailed by a touchdown at the half and only led by three points with 8:31 remaining.
Like in the second half of last season, the beneficiary here is James Cook, who had 19 of Buffalo’s 24 rushing attempts from their running backs on Sunday.
The risk here is that the Bills are road underdogs against a good Dolphins team, but considering that Allen is dealing with a hand injury (though full participant in practice) on a short week, I like my chances of Cook being heavily involved considering their run-first approach.