The Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings contest on Sunday is the lone matchup on the Week 3 slate that features two unbeaten teams.
Breaking down this game and trying to identify which team has the advantage is a tough task that requires turning over every stone.
We’ve done just that and highlighted three statistics and one x-factor that will impact Sunday’s showdown between the 2-0 Texans and 2-0 Vikings.
3 Stats from TruMedia in Texans vs. Vikings
Sam Darnold Completes 82.4% of Passes to Complementary Players
The Vikings have a talented trio of pass catchers in tight end T.J. Hockenson and receivers Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson. And head coach Kevin O’Connell, who calls plays for Minnesota, isn’t afraid to lean on them.
Since Week 1 of 2023, this trio has combined to account for 61% of the team’s receiving yards and 54% of their targets.
This week, though, that trio is broken up. Addison is doubtful with an ankle injury, and Hockenson is on the PUP list. Meanwhile, Jefferson will play after he left last week’s game in the third quarter and did not return because of a quad injury.
Sam Darnold will have no fear, however, because he’s had success even when looking outside of this trio.
Through two games, Darnold is completing 82.4% of his passes when not targeting Addison, Hockenson, and Jefferson. The best complementary piece has been receiver Jalen Nailor.
Nailor has scored touchdowns in both Vikings games this season, hauling in a 21-yard strike from Darnold in Week 1 and then breaking free for a 10-yard score last week. Darnold has targeted Nailor five times this season, and that has resulted in four catches for 72 yards and two touchdowns.
C.J. Stroud Shreds the Blitz with a 125.7 Passer Rating
The Vikings blitzed 50% of the time in 2023, most in the NFL. They’ve decreased their blitz frequency in 2024 to 33% of the time, which is still fifth-most among all 32 teams. While the frequency has decreased, the effectiveness has not.
The @Vikings defense with Flo is back to ghost chasing#nfllive @JasonMcCourty @Hawk pic.twitter.com/WL9vYJgZFr
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) September 18, 2024
As ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky points out in the clip above, the Vikings’ defense is tops in the NFL in production when blitzing.
That’s all well and good — until you play C.J. Stroud.
Stroud’s poise versus the blitz as a rookie in 2023 was impressive. He authored a 114.4 passer rating when faced with more than four rushers, which was fourth-best among qualified passers. Stroud’s poise — and production — versus the blitz in 2024 is even better. He is 15 of 17 for 161 yards and a touchdown in such spots this season, good enough for a passer rating of 125.7.
If the Vikings are going to bring the blitz at the same rate they’ve been doing it under Flores, something’s going to have to give on Sunday.
The good news for Minnesota, though, is that its defense has still found ways to win when not blitzing. The Vikings have generated the second-highest pressure rate with a four-man rush this season at 45%.
Teams Entering the 4th Quarter With a Lead Are 87.1% Winners
In the NFL in 2024, if you enter the fourth quarter with a lead, then you win 87.1% of the time.
It’s not a novel idea that teams entering the final quarter with a lead might end up winning the game, but the 2024 rate is more than 4% greater than the rate over the last decade (83%).
The Texans and Vikings have figured significantly into this state. Together, the two teams have accounted for four of the 27 wins and none of the four losses in 2024, as both teams took leads into the fourth quarter and protected them so far this season.
Interestingly enough, however, one could ascertain that both teams are fortunate to have not muddied up this statistic. Combined, the Texans and Vikings have a negative point differential in the fourth quarter this season. Houston is +3 in their two games, while the Vikings are -7.
Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 53-yard field goal last week against Chicago finally put the Texans in positive point differential territory after Houston exchanged two touchdowns and two extra points with the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1.
The Vikings, meanwhile, didn’t score in the fourth quarter at New York in Week 1, and last week against San Francisco, they allowed 10 points and scored just once via a field goal.
Both teams are unbeaten in this matchup, and the team that remains so following Sunday’s game will likely have figured out how to perform better in the final 15 minutes of the game.
Texans vs. Vikings X-Factor: The Kicking Game
Special teams is a much less discussed but still important factor in determining the outcome of NFL games.
The Texans and Vikings have both been experts in the kicking game through the first two games, and a difference in performance between the two teams in this area on Sunday could easily tip the scales.
The Vikings have essentially been perfect, with rookie kicker Will Reichard true on all six extra-point tries and all three field goal attempts. The Vikings’ kickoff team has yet to surrender a return of more than 22 yards, and Reichard has blasted eight touchbacks.
Fairbairn has been sensational for Houston in 2024. He’s also perfect on the campaign, having converted six times from 50+ yards and another time from 47.
Houston had one snafu on punt coverage in Week 1 when a blocked attempt set up the Colts with field position at the Houston 5-yard line; Jonathan Taylor scored on a 5 -yard rush one play later. The Vikings, meanwhile, blocked a punt of San Francisco’s last week and converted the ensuing possession into a field goal.
As sharp as Houston has been in the field goal kicking game, they must sharpen up its kickoff coverage performance and ensure it corrects the error(s) that led to the blocked punt because the Vikings are throwing a near-perfect game on special teams.