The Tennessee Titans outperformed all expectations in 2019, reaching the AFC Championship on the back of incredible play from Derrick Henry, with help from Ryan Tannehill, who became the starting quarterback a third of the way through the season. However, while both of those players were undeniably impressive, the Titans had another player who quietly had an excellent 2019 season, tight end Jonnu Smith.
Smith’s counting statistics don’t look particularly impressive, with only 439 receiving yards and three touchdowns. However, Tennessee’s focus on the running game led to Smith having fewer opportunities than he would have on another team. Throughout the season, he was only targeted 44 times.
For comparison, Cleveland Browns running back Kareem Hunt had the same number of targets despite being suspended for half the season. Naturally, Smith’s statistics suffered as a result of those limited opportunities. However, he squeezed every ounce of yardage out of those targets.
According to the OSM, Smith was the Titans’ most efficient player
What Smith did with his limited targets was remarkable, something we can determine by looking at PFN’s Offensive Share Metric (OSM). The OSM shows how responsible a player was for the statistics they produced, allowing us to gauge how successful players were, even if their targets were limited. A number of Titans players performed very well on this metric. Henry’s overall grade of 21.27 led all players at his position, as did Tannehill’s at 34.36.
However, while those grades deserve praise, Smith out-performed them both by a significant margin. His grade of 44.32 was the highest recorded by any player during the four-year period for which PFN has OSM data. In other words, Smith got more out of his opportunities in 2019 than any player has during the last four years.
It isn’t too uncommon to see players produce a grade as high or higher than Smith’s in a single game, but maintaining that level of play for an entire season is even more impressive. It implies that he exuded an enormous amount of influence over his statistics, maximizing the yards he gained at every opportunity, and he did so consistently over an extended period of time.
Explaining why Smith’s grade was so high
You usually don’t receive a grade as high as Smith did without excelling in multiple areas, and he was no exception. Looking at his advanced metrics, we can see that he performed near the top of the league in many of them. He caught 79.55% of his targets, the third-highest percentage in the NFL among qualifying tight ends and wide receivers. The only players to rank above him were Kyle Rudolph and Michael Thomas.
On its own, having such a high catch percentage is already impressive. However, what set Smith apart from those other players is how good he was once he had the ball in his hands. Rudolph and Thomas averaged 5.2 and 4.1 yards after the catch (YAC), respectively, in 2019.
Smith, meanwhile, outperformed them significantly, gaining 8.4 YAC, the fourth-highest average. Even more impressive, according to the NFL’s advanced metrics, that number was 2.9 yards higher than expected, a differential that was second only to Smith’s teammate on the Titans, A.J. Brown.
Smith should see an increased role next season
Smith made the absolute most out of the limited opportunities he got. However, he might get the chance to prove he can succeed in a more substantial role next season. The longtime starting tight end in Tennessee, Delanie Walker, was released by the team after struggling with injuries over the last two years.
Walker was only able to play in eight games over that stretch, forcing Tennessee to rely on other players for production. While it is a shame to see Walker’s excellent career with the Titans end so anti-climactically, his absence allowed players like Smith to step up and fill the void, and even grow beyond him.
Walker’s highest recorded OSM grade was a 33.29 in 2016, not even close to what Smith produced last season. And with Walker off the team entirely, Smith becomes the clear-cut number one at the position. While Tennessee will still almost certainly focus primarily on the run, Smith should see an increased role as a result of Walker’s departure. If that happens, and Smith is able to keep up his historic levels of efficiency, his statistics will increase dramatically.
Smith must prove he can continue producing for the Titans in a larger role
2019 will be the last season of Smith’s rookie deal with the Titans. He will be making a surprising amount of money, with a base salary of $2,133,000, more than what he made in the previous three seasons combined (not including his signing bonus). He will even be making more than the newly signed Austin Hooper with the Cleveland Browns.
However, Hooper’s contract is heavily back-loaded, so he will be making significantly more than Smith after 2020. Hooper played at a level that warranted a big contract last season, with a grade of 40.14. Obviously though, Smith was even better, and if he sees an increase in opportunities, he could earn a contract even larger than the one Hooper received, either in Tennessee or elsewhere. If that is the case, he could quickly become viewed as one of the NFL’s best tight ends.