The Dallas Cowboys’ 2024 season is shot. Micah Parsons and CeeDee Lamb are questionable, DaRon Bland is out, and Dak Prescott is done for the season. They are 3-6 at the moment and don’t have much momentum or hope for the rest of this season. The Cowboys’ injury report is, well, extensive.
Since 2000, there have been 45 games in which a team has thrown five or more interceptions. Per Tru Media, the Detroit Lions became just the third of those teams to win the game.
Meanwhile, the Houston Texans still remain a top team in the league at 6-4 despite having dropped three of their last four games.
Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Texans -7 - Moneyline
Texans (-325); Cowboys (+260) - Over/Under
41 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
AT&T Stadium
Texans vs. Cowboys Preview and Prediction
The Texans’ offense has struggled mightily this season, ranking 22nd in EPA (expected points added). Their biggest struggles come from playing behind the sticks, sitting at 29th in EPA lost due to sacks. As I mentioned in an earlier preview, the Texans are putrid on early downs and C.J. Stroud’s third-down excellence is not sustainable.
Nobody has to deal with third-and-long more often than C.J. Stroud
Most plays run on 3rd-and-10+ this season:
Stroud – 50
Deshaun Watson – 37
Aaron Rodgers – 37
Caleb Williams – 36
Daniel Jones – 35 https://t.co/Y8BUJL0Qd6 pic.twitter.com/Kgpzc80nMY— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) November 11, 2024
Luckily, the offense should get a much-needed boost as they play a Cowboys defense that ranks 29th in EPA. The Cowboys’ defense also ranks 29th in rushes of 10 or more yards given up and 29th in defensive rushing success rate. With the 28th-ranked rushing offense in EPA, the Texans should look to buck that trend against a defense that has struggled this season.
The Texans’ sack issues are on both Stroud and the offensive line. The Texans’ offense ranks 27th in pressure allowed but also have a time to throw of over three seconds, which ranks eighth-longest in the league. Just looking at quick pressures (less than 2.5 seconds), the Texans still rank 27th.
This could prove to be dangerous against a Cowboys defense doing surprisingly well at pressuring the quarterback. They rank fourth in quick pressure generated and fifth in overall pressure generated. When they get this pressure, the defense ranks 20th in EPA. Even better, the Cowboys’ defense ranks 16th in EPA when blitzing and 31st when not.
Post-bye week, the Cowboys’ defense hasn’t been that bad, ranking 21st in EPA. It’s the offensive struggles that have really buried this team. Since the bye week, the Cowboys’ offense ranks 30th in EPA per game, not a far cry from their ranking of 28th for the entire season. Dallas has managed to spend a grand total of 10.09% of their snaps in a positive game script situation, which is third-worst in the league.
The Texans’ defense is flying around and playing well. They rank eighth in defensive EPA, third in passes of 10 or more yards allowed, and are in the top 10 of drive quality for scripted, non-scripted, leading, trailing, and close-game situations.
43 quarterbacks have thrown more than 60 passes this season. Among them, Cooper Rush is 41st in EPA per dropback and 39th under pressure. On top of this, the Cowboys’ offense ranks last in EPA when playing against four pass rushers. I expect the Texans’ defense to get home early and often against this Cowboys offense and for Stroud to get some of his confidence back in a much-needed Texans victory.
My pick: Texans ML (-325), Cowboys +7 (+100)
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