The Houston Texans have won the AFC South for the second consecutive season. Having already secured at least one playoff home game, how high can the Texans climb? What needs to happen for Houston to improve its playoff positioning?
What Is the Houston Texans’ Current Playoff Picture?
The Texans (9-6) have clinched the AFC South, meaning they will play a home game on Wild Card Weekend. That is certain, as the No. 1 seed will belong to either the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) or Buffalo Bills (12-3).
While Houston will most likely be the No. 4 seed, depending on what happens over the next three weeks, they could potentially earn the No. 3 or No. 2 seed.
How Does a Texans Win Impact Their Playoff Seeding?
A lot has to break right for the Texans to secure the No. 2 seed. They need to win at least two of their last three to have any chance. If the Texans close the season 2-1, the Bills would have to lose out and the Steelers would need to go no better than 1-2.
The Texans winning each of their final three games does make things easier, but it is still a massive long shot. The Bills would still need to lose at least two more games and the Steelers at least one more.
Having the Steelers lose once is the easy part, and very likely to happen. The most difficult part might actually be the Bills losing again. Buffalo closes the season out against the New England Patriots, New York Jets, and Patriots again. They will likely be heavy favorites in all three.
Securing the No. 3 seed is much more feasible but also highly improbable. The Texans could get there by winning out and having the Steelers lose a game. That is the most straightforward path, as the alternative involves two Bills losses.
How Does a Texans Loss Impact Their Playoff Seeding?
The Texans have an incredibly challenging finish to their regular season, with games against the Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Tennessee Titans. It is very unlikely they win all three. Even if they win two of them, a single loss requires the Bills to lose out, which is almost certainly not happening outside of unexpected circumstances.
As for the No. 3 seed, if the Texans lose to the Chiefs, they can still get there as long as they can overcome the Ravens. However, that path involves the Steelers losing out and the Ravens also losing to the Cleveland Browns.
In all likelihood, the Texans will not only be the No. 4 seed but enter Week 18 locked into the No. 4 seed, potentially leading to them resting starters.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
