The Houston Texans will travel to take on the struggling New York Jets in Week 9. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for the full slate of our picks and predictions, head over to our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.
Houston Texans (-1, 43.5) at New York Jets
This game is intriguing because these teams have completely opposite records (6-2 vs. 2-6), but neither has been particularly convincing. Five of the Texans’ six wins have been by one score and a total of 18 points. They are 5-1 in one-score games and just 11th in our PR+ standings. Houston’s defense is a top-10 unit and carries an offense that ranks just inside the bottom half.
Texans prevent the hail mary attempt to secure the win! pic.twitter.com/qWc5kICv0o
— NFL (@NFL)
The Jets are the complete opposite in one-score games. Four of their six losses have been by a single score, and they’ve lost those games by a total of 13 points (3.25 points per game).
New York enters this matchup with a 1-4 record in one-score games and sits just inside the top half of our PR+. Much like the Texans, the Jets lean heavily on a ninth-ranked defense, but that has been fading since Robert Saleh left.
This game feels very appropriately priced, with the Texans as narrow favorites. Our playoff predictor has the Texans winning 52% of the time, and they are only marginally above the Jets in our PR+.
On a short week, with the Texans heading outdoors for just the second time this season, it’s hard to trust them to win when they haven’t dominated this year.
Prediction: Texans 23, Jets 20
Pick: Pass
Texans at Jets Game Insights
Houston Texans
Team: Over their past six games, the Texans are 0-2 against the NFC North (averaging 14.5 PPG) and 4-0 against the rest of the NFL (27.8 PPG).
QB: C.J. Stroud has 11 deep pass attempts over his past two games – in the last two games in which Nico Collins started, he had 11 deep completions.
Offense: Over 75% of Houston’s yards came through the air in the last four games that Nico Collins started – in the three games he has missed, just 53.7% of their yards have come via the pass.
Defense: The Texans created pressure on 72.7% of their blitzes last week against the Colts, easily their best mark of the season and the 10th best through eight weeks across the entire NFL.
Fantasy: Joe Mixon has cleared 23 PPR fantasy points in all three games back from injury, producing 31.1% over expectation in the process.
Betting: Six of Houston’s past eight games played on short rest have come in under the closing total (they’ve covered their past three such games).
New York Jets
Team: The Jets had zero turnovers, held the Patriots to 247 yards — and still lost. They’re the first team to lose a game in which they did not turn the ball over and held their opponent under 250 yards since Week 3 of 2012. That game? Aaron Rodgers’ Packers lost.
QB: In the two games since the Davante Adams trade, Aaron Rodgers has completed 61.2% of his passes with a 1.5 touchdown-to-interception rate (Weeks 1-6: 61.8% complete, 1.8 touchdown-to-interception).
Offense: In Week 8, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams accounted for 52.9% of Jet catches and 71.7% of their receiving yards.
Defense: In Weeks 1-4, the Jets had an 11.5% sack rate, but since, their rate sits at just 7.2%.
Fantasy: Tyler Conklin caught a touchdown pass in traffic on Sunday and now has an endzone target in three of his past four games (quality over quantity of look these days at the TE position and the looks he gets have been valuable, even since the acquisition of Adams).
Betting: The Jets are 1-2 ATS at home this season (covered in Week 3 against the Patriots) and 2-6 ATS in their past eight at home.
