Terry McLaurin or Allen Robinson: Which fantasy football WR should you target?

Given the plethora of sensational receiver options that fill the early rounds of drafts, fantasy football managers are finding themselves deciding who to draft between two alphas in Chicago Bears WR Allen Robinson and Washington Football Team WR Terry McLaurin. On one side, you have arguably the most underrated elite WR in the NFL and fantasy. On the other, the next great WR on the verge of superstardom. But when on the clock, which WR should you draft for your fantasy football team — Robinson or McLaurin?

Why you should draft Terry McLaurin in 2021 fantasy football leagues

Some players don’t seem to get the amount of respect or praise they deserve, whether it be due to name recognition or even what team they play for. One of those players is McLaurin, but this is all about to change in 2021. And I would advise anyone reading this to get on board before it is too late. McLaurin is about to set the NFL and fantasy football on fire.

Despite playing with Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, and Taylor Heinicke the last two years, McLaurin has somehow recorded 145 receptions, 2,037 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Last season, McLaurin was ninth amongst receivers in targets per game at 8.9. This is impressive, given Washington threw just 52% of the time, 31st in the NFL, with McLaurin receiving a 25.4% target share (10th highest percentage in 2020).

It’s easy to point at the splits and say that McLaurin went from WR10 in Weeks 1-10 to the WR50 from Week 11 on and say that it was a flash in the pan. However, context is needed. McLaurin was nursing an ankle injury the entire second half of the season, which hampered his play. 

Simply put, McLaurin is as legit as it gets. And now that he has a competent QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick who loves to push the ball downfield, McLaurin has legitimate top-six upside.

The case for Terry McLaurin over Allen Robinson

I am not going to say I am anti-Robinson, as he is disrespected. But the upside of McLaurin is undeniable. This season, McLaurin has a 130-plus-target potential and could be a league-winner, given his route running and deep ball skills. 

The concern for Robinson is not even anything that is necessarily his fault. It is what is going on around him. For one, there is the quarterback situation. Andy Dalton is the starter for now, but eventually, the Bears could make the change to Justin Fields. The playbook and timing will change when that happens, which can take weeks to figure out as Fields works to get in rhythm with his receivers. 

There is also the looming factor that is head coach Matt Nagy. For some reason, he is calling plays again for the Bears. Last season under Nagy, they were 31st in yards (300.9), points (19.1), yards per play (4.7), first downs (188), third-down conversions (42), red-zone TDs (13), yards per drive (26.6) and expected points (-32.55). And they were 30th in scoring drives (31%).

I get wanting to go out on your terms, but this could be brutal, especially if he is hard-headed and sticks with Dalton for an extended period. All of this uncertainty will have an impact on Robinson in the end. Throw in the emergence of Darnell Mooney, and it could get dicey. With the two teams going in opposite directions, the upside of McLaurin over Robinson can be easily seen.

Why you should draft Allen Robinson in 2021 fantasy football leagues

I don’t believe there is a more disrespected elite-level WR in all of the NFL or fantasy football than Robinson. Since 2015, Robinson has averaged 68 receptions on 117 targets for 908 yards and 6 touchdowns. That is including a 2017 season where he tore his ACL in Week 1. 

Take that out, and Robinson’s yearly averages jump to 140.2 targets, 81.6 receptions, 1,086 yards, and 7.4 touchdowns. He has done all of that while catching passes from Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Mitch Trubisky, and Nick Foles. 

In 2020, Robinson finished sixth in receptions with 102. He saw the third-highest number of targets at 151, which accounted for 25.4% of the Bears’ total and was 41% of their wide receivers’ targets. Robinson was ninth in the league in yards (1,250), and his 102 receptions marked him as just one of six wide receivers to surpass 100 receptions. 

All of this came with Foles and Trubisky coming in 20th and 22nd, respectively, in on-target throws at 76.3% and 75.8%. 

Finishing as the WR9 in fantasy (16.4 ppg), Robinson has back-to-back 150+ target and top-10 fantasy finishes.

The case for Allen Robinson over Terry McLaurin

So McLaurin had one and a half good seasons? Okay, calm down now, young buck — you’re playing with the big boys now.

Robinson is the epitome of consistency and sees work that few can hang with. Now, imagine him and what he could do with Fields under center because that will become a reality sooner rather than later. You know it. I know it. Your dog and grandma know it. Fields is the starter for the Bears and gives them the best chance to not only succeed but also save Nagy’s job. 

Even with Mooney, who I adore to the moon and back, Robinson is locked into another 150-target season. That is not something McLaurin can top. In fact, he could lose opportunities this year. Washington had no one else to target last season, an issue they rectified with the additions of Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and Adam Humphries at receiver. 

In a game where every point matters, when you add that Robinson averaged more fantasy points per target than McLaurin (1.74 to 1.66), that 25-30 target difference creates a sizable gap in season-long production.

Which WR should you draft in fantasy football between Terry McLaurin or Allen Robinson?

These two could not be any closer, not only to me but also in ADP. On NFC, McLaurin is the WR10 (29.4 ADP) with Robinson at WR11 (31.6). Over on Fleaflicker, they go WR9 and WR10. It’s splitting hairs. When one WR gets a slight edge in the fantasy football debate, the other comes in with a right hook and levels the match.

There is no wrong answer, and even depending on what format you are in could be enough to make the difference. But for me, when I went through and made my projections, I have McLaurin just edging out Robinson by less than five fantasy points — essentially making this a coinflip decision on draft day.