Few fantasy WRs have been as consistent as Terry McLaurin over his five years in a Washington Commanders uniform. Yet, one could make an argument he is set to play with the best quarterback of his entire professional career with the arrival of Jayden Daniels under center.
Should fantasy football managers expect more of the same from McLaurin this year, or could the rookie quarterback have a volatile impact on the veteran receiver’s fantasy outlook in 2024?
Terry McLaurin’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
The Commanders threw the ball more than any team in the NFL last year. Yet, McLaurin dropped from the fantasy WR14 overall in 2022 to the WR28 in 2023 in full-PPR formats. McLaurin’s 79 receptions for 1,002 yards and four scores on 132 targets were good but definitely felt like a bit of a disappointment considering how much Washington threw the ball last year and the lack of production from other pass catchers on the roster.
Most will point to the quarterback play as the biggest reason this jump in opportunities didn’t result in a jump in fantasy production, but Sam Howell wasn’t his biggest problem in 2024.
It was actually teammates like Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas all seeing a larger portion of the Washington passing pie than expected. The aforementioned trio all saw north of 75 targets, with all four players (McLaurin included) scoring just four receiving TDs last year.
After the failed Eric Bieniemy experiment at offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury is now tasked with putting his rookie QB in a position to succeed early in his career. One path to the first-year signal caller acclimating quickly to the pro game is finding a way to scheme up looks for his top receiver.
Kingsbury’s track record in the NFL has produced some quality fantasy seasons from WRs who generally operate as the X-receiver. This fits McLaurin’s resume from last year, considering 86% of his snaps came on the outside of the formation. The best example would be DeAndre Hopkins, who finished his first year in Arizona as the WR4 overall with 115 receptions for 1,407 yards and six scores.
Obviously, production like that will likely depend on the level of play we get from Daniels in his rookie year, but there is a scheme fit that could be working in McLaurin’s favor.
Another factor pointing toward a potential boost for McLaurin is just how disappointing Dotson has been throughout his two years in the NFL.
Dotson saw 83 targets in this pass-happy offense last season and managed to produce just 49 receptions for 518 yards and four scores for a WR56 overall finish. For those wondering, that type of production equates to 0.83 yards per route run, which implies Dotson may not be the player many fantasy managers hoped he was coming out of Penn State.
McLaurin’s other competition for targets includes Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Luke McCaffrey, and Ben Sinnott, which shouldn’t really scare fantasy managers a whole lot.
It really all comes down to how Daniels performs under center. McLaurin’s fantasy floor during his career was WR29 back in 2019, which was his rookie year. He has caught a minimum of 77 passes for a minimum of 1,002 receiving yards over the last four years.
If McLaurin becomes Daniels’ clear-cut go-to option in the passing game and Daniels outperforms the modest expectations many have for him as a passer in 2024, then McLaurin finishing the year as a top-15 WR isn’t too far-fetched.
McLaurin’s ADP currently sits at No. 76 overall at the end of the fifth round, going as the WR33 off the board right behind Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley. For the record, I’m going McLaurin over Ridley and Kirk all day for this season.
McLaurin’s currently being drafted lower than his proven fantasy floor, which feels a bit unfair to a player who certainly could get the best quarterback play of his career and has the disappointing Dotson as his biggest target competition.
McLaurin is a very nice buy at the end of the fifth round in fantasy drafts.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Analysis for Terry McLaurin
Could McLaurin do this season what Moore did last year? He’s not changing teams, but the overhauling of the offense creates a similar situation where McLaurin’s talent gets a chance to shine in a way it hasn’t in years past.
The best part is that you don’t have to pay top dollar to find out. McLaurin’s ADP is currently outside of the top 30 at the position, behind Moore’s teammate Keenan Allen and Jacksonville Jaguars WR Christian Kirk.
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Those are two talented options, but isn’t Allen just an older version of McLaurin with more target competition? Kirk might be in a better spot, but he, too, has more target competition and probably isn’t in the same prospect bin as Washington’s ace.
The fact that McLaurin has failed to reach fantasy expectations on his targets in three of the past four seasons is more an indictment of his lack of support than anything he’s doing wrong.
A stat like that can hint that McLaurin is still earning valuable targets; they just haven’t been connected on.
Daniels might not be a better passer than what McLaurin has seen through five NFL seasons, but we don’t know that’s the case, which is enough for me to invest and invest with regularity.