Day 1 of NFL free agency was a little weird. While there were plenty of deals, much of the top end of the market hasn’t found a home. The list of still-available stars includes New Orleans left tackle Terron Armstead, one of the best offensive linemen in free agency.
Why hasn’t Terron Armstead found a team in free agency?
Let’s begin this exercise by pointing out it’s still very early, and free agency doesn’t truly begin until 4 PM Wednesday. The legal tampering period, at the time of this story’s publication, isn’t even 24 hours old.
But it was a bit peculiar that dawn broke Tuesday with five of the top six untagged players on PFN’s Top 100 Free Agents list didn’t have a deal. Armstead was among that group, despite making the Pro Bowl each year from 2018 through 2020 and leading an otherwise pedestrian left tackle group.
Plus, there’s a lot of moving parts here. The biggest of which: Deshaun Watson’s professional fate. Armstead is weighing options, including his desire to stay with the Saints and the possibility of teaming up with Watson as a potential Super Bowl contender.
But that’s not the only factor. There are two others.
Armstead’s age, health history are concerns
Armstead is a very talented player who cannot be relied upon to play a full season. He has never done it in his career and missed nine games in 2021 due to elbow and knee injuries. He’s also had pec and shoulder issues in the past.
If a team is going to pay north of $15 million annually for a left tackle, which is probably the floor for a player of Armstead’s caliber, they need to believe he will be available most every game.
Plus, any offer must have protections for the club that allow them to get out from underneath the contract after two years. Armstead will be 31 years old before the start of the 2022 season, and it’s fair to wonder how many years he has left, considering his medical history.
The 2022 NFL Draft is loaded with offensive tackles
Also working against Armstead: Why would a team needing a tackle pay for one now when they can wait a month and potentially draft one younger, cheaper, and potentially better?
Here’s how PFN Draft Analyst Ian Cummings put it to us:
“The 2022 NFL Draft is stocked with quality offensive tackle talent — and not just with the big three up top. Obviously, Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu, and Charles Cross are potential blue-chip talents, along with Trevor Penning.
“But even at the Saints’ first-round pick, or on Day 2, there’s plenty of potential starting talent. Tyler Smith, Sean Rhyan, Bernhard Raimann, Abraham Lucas, Daniel Faalele, Matt Waletzko, Braxton Jones, Nicholas Petit-Frere, Dare Rosenthal, and Chris Paul are just a few who might be viewed as such.”
Beyond the Saints, there are other teams that need tackles who could make Armstrong a winning offer and, at least as of late Tuesday morning, had not.
They include the Giants (who pick fifth), the Panthers (who pick sixth), and potentially the Jaguars (who pick first but just franchised-tagged Cam Robinson). Now, there are teams in the latter half of the first round who still need to upgrade at tackle, but their finances aren’t as forgiving.
The Cincinnati Bengals might have priced themselves out of the Armstead market Monday by instead deciding to sign Ted Karras and Alex Cappa. The one team that has and continues to make the most sense? The Miami Dolphins, who had a relatively quiet Day 1 of free agency. Perhaps they’re simply waiting for Armstead’s asking price to drop.
