The Cincinnati Bengals‘ decision to franchise WR Tee Higgins has created a crystal clear rift between the talented pass catcher and the organization heading into the 2024 NFL season.
Should fantasy managers rely on Higgins to anchor their WR2 starting spot on the roster entering his fifth year in the NFL?
Tee Higgins’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Higgins’ zero receptions on eight targets in the season-opening loss against the Cleveland Browns perhaps foreshadowed the struggles that were on the horizon in 2023.
Higgins’ 2023 production was a major fantasy disappointment, with just 42 receptions for 656 yards and five scores, which were all career lows. The lack of production also led to his worst fantasy finish at WR51 in full-PPR formats.
There is certainly some context required with these numbers.
Quarterback Joe Burrow entered the year with a calf injury, which collectively got the Bengals’ offense off to a slow start. In addition, Higgins battled through multiple injuries in his own right, which cost him five games.
Prior to last season, Higgins never finished lower WR28 in full-PPR formats and produced a minimum of 67 receptions, 908 yards, and six receiving scores over his first three seasons in the league.
Tee Higgins Career Season Stats
- 2023: 42 receptions, 656 yards, 5 TDs (WR51 overall)
- 2022: 75 receptions, 1,042 yards, 7 TDs (WR18 overall)
- 2021: 74 receptions, 1,091 yards, 6 TDs (WR24 overall)
- 2020: 67 receptions, 908 yards, 6 TDs (WR28 overall)
Only his 2020 season production came without Ja’Marr Chase as a focal part of this passing attack, which had fantasy managers feeling confident Higgins has one of the highest fantasy floors at the position outside of the elite options in the NFL.
The role should look pretty similar heading into 2024. The loss of Tyler Boyd was offset by the addition of talented rookie pass-catcher Jermaine Burton, who slipped all the way to the third round.
After Higgins signed his franchise tender earlier this summer, he is well-positioned again to see north of 100 targets from one of the premier quarterbacks in the league in 2024.
One could certainly view his contract dispute with the front office and disappointing 2023 campaign as contributing factors to landing a great player in a great fantasy situation at a slight discount this upcoming season.
Higgins’ ADP at No. 63 overall in the sixth round as the WR28 off the board suggests there is some hesitation in the fantasy community to trust the former Clemson Tiger in 2024 when you consider his draft stock was two rounds higher heading into last season. For some additional context, Higgins is being selected after George Pickens, Zay Flowers, and Amari Cooper.
Higgins’ previous track record of success definitely warrants a fourth-round selection as your WR2. If we felt confident that Higgins was happy with his contract situation entering the season, his ADP would likely be a full round higher in the WR20 range.
Yet, Higgins signing his franchise tender doesn’t exactly give fantasy managers a full vote of confidence surrounding his outlook this year.
I’m of the firm belief we should not judge Higgins by his disappointing 2023 campaign. Higgins was battling injuries, as was his MVP-caliber quarterback, which undoubtedly had a profoundly negative impact on the fantasy production from Higgins last year.
Every season that Higgins has played at least 14 games, he has finished as a top-30 fantasy WR.
The contract situation isn’t perfect, but this price point definitely makes sense for a receiver of his caliber.
