The CUSA may not be the most heralded conference in college football, but several compelling storylines heading into 2025 could make it one of the most exciting. With new additions to the conference, head coaching moves, and roster turnover, the CUSA will provide plenty of discussion throughout the fall.
Who is most likely to win the conference? Using PFSN’s latest data and metrics, here are the projections for each CUSA team heading into the 2025 season.
12) Delaware Blue Hens
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 3.98-8.07
- Projected CUSA Record: 2.72-5.28
- Projected CUSA Championship Win Probability: 0.89%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
Welcome to the FBS Delaware. Unfortunately, history tells us that teams making the move from the FCS to the FBS ranks rarely do so without experiencing growing pains. PFSN gives the Blue Hens less than a 1% chance of winning the conference and projects them to have the lowest win total in CUSA with just 3.98 victories in 2025.
The Blue Hens have lost significant experience heading into the 2025 season, which impacts their outlook. That includes Phil Lutz, who accounted for 34% of Delaware’s receiving yards in 2024. On offense, expect Delaware to lean on the ground game with Jo’Nathan Silver, who averaged 6.6 yards per carry as a backup in 2024. Defensively, KT Seay should look right at home as the defensive back accumulated 38 tackles and four interceptions last season.
11) Kennesaw State Owls
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 4.79-7.21
- Projected CUSA Record: 3.42-4.58
- Projected CUSA Championship Win Probability: 2.49%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
Life in the FBS can be difficult, and Kennesaw State exemplifies how hard it can be to make the jump. The Owls won two games in their first season in the CUSA by a combined four points and are projected to have the second-worst record in the conference in 2025, with PFSN projecting only 4.79 wins.
The Owls begin life under Jerry Mack after firing Brian Bohannon, and his spread offense should create tempo for a unit that ranked last in the conference, averaging just 250.9 yards per game, 69.9 yards less than the next closest team.
10) Missouri State Bears
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 3.49-4.51
- Projected CUSA Record: 4.51-3.1
- Projected CUSA Championship Win Probability: 3.1%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
Missouri State also debuts in the FBS in 2025 and will have a baptism by fire as the Bears head to the Coliseum to take on USC in their season opener. PFSN predicts a rude awakening for the Bears in the big leagues, projecting the former FCS team to win only 3.49 games during the 2025 season. However, they have several talented players to watch.
Wide receiver Jmariyae Robinson has accounted for 1,085 yards and nine receiving touchdowns, alongside 52 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons. He is a livewire who should see plenty of the ball from quarterback Jacob Clark, who finished the 2024 season with 3,604 passing yards and 26 touchdowns.
9) UTEP Miners
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.24-6.76
- Projected CUSA Record: 3.74-4.26
- Projected CUSA Championship Win Probability: 4.11%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
UTEP has endured back-to-back three-win seasons and has posted a winning record in only one season over the last decade, but there is renewed optimism in El Paso. Former five-star recruit Malachi Nelson has transferred to the Miners and been named the starter after starting his career at USC and serving as a backup in 2024 at Boise State.
He will have two 500+-yard receivers to throw to in Kenny Odom and Kam Thomas, but the running game must improve significantly after ranking 109th in the FBS with just 1,449 rushing yards in 2024.
8) New Mexico State Aggies
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.33-6.67
- Projected CUSA Record: 3.58-4.42
- Projected CUSA Championship Win Probability: 3.55%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
New Mexico State regressed in 2024, without Diego Pavia’s talismanic presence, as it rotated through four different quarterbacks, creating a lack of consistency and continuity under center. However, head coach Tony Sanchez has named Logan Fife, who threw for 1,890 yards and 14 touchdowns at Montana last season, the starter for the 2025 season.
The running game will again shoulder much of the offensive workload with transfer additions Dijon Stanley and Kadarius Calloway forming an enticing one-two punch.
7) Florida International Panthers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.57-6.43
- Projected CUSA Record: 3.92-4.08
- Projected CUSA Championship Win Probability: 5.73%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
FIU hasn’t won more than four games since 2019 under Butch Davis, but PFSN projects the Panthers to win 5.57 games in 2025 under Willie Simmons in his first season as head coach.
Defensively, the Panthers ranked fourth in the conference in 2024, allowing an average of 370.9 yards per game while posting the conference’s best turnover ratio, with 3.1% of passing attempts resulting in interceptions. Offensively, Keyone Jenkins returns at quarterback, and his 8.4 yards per attempt ranked second in the conference, trailing only Tyler Huff. His 22 passing touchdowns from last season lead all returning conference quarterbacks.
6) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.61-6.39
- Projected CUSA Record: 3.73-4.57
- Projected CUSA Championship Win Probability: 4.09%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
Middle Tennessee is projected to win 5.61 games in 2025 during its second season under Derek Mason. The Blue Raiders went 3-9 in 2024 and struggled defensively, allowing the most yards per game in the conference (449.2 per game) and forcing their offense to compensate.
However, the Blue Raiders are projected to improve in their sophomore campaign under Mason. Nicholas Vattiato threw for the conference’s second-most yards in 2024 (3,092) but must cut down on turnovers (10 interceptions last season) if Middle Tennessee hopes to make a push in CUSA.
5) Sam Houston Bearkats
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.61-6.39
- Projected CUSA Record: 4.12-3.88
- Projected CUSA Championship Win Probability: 6.71%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
Sam Houston already sits at 0-1 after a Week 0 loss to Western Kentucky. That game highlighted exactly what the Bearkats offer on offense. Hunter Watson can generate explosive plays as a dual-threat quarterback after rushing for the FBS’s 15th-most quarterback yards in 2024 (647) and should stuff the stat sheet in the new air raid offense.
He graded out with a D+ PFSN QBi against the Hilltoppers in the season opener despite being one of the conference’s top signal-callers.
The Bearkats went 10-3 under K.C. Keeler last season, including a victory in the New Orleans Bowl. However, with Keeler’s departure to Temple, former Wisconsin offensive coordinator Phil Longo takes over in his first head coaching role and is projected to win only 5.61 games in 2025.
With just a 6.71% chance of winning the conference, 2025 was always projected as a regression year following the 2024 season. Longo will need a more balanced approach as Sam Houston enters its third season in the FBS.
4) Jacksonville State Gamecocks
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.5-5.5
- Projected CUSA Record: 4.51-3.49
- Projected CUSA Championship Win Probability: 12.93%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
The 2025 offseason brought significant turnover for the Gamecocks. Rich Rodriguez departed for West Virginia, and Charles Kelly serves as the new head coach, bringing familiarity to the program after previously working as both offensive and defensive coordinator at Jacksonville State during the 1990s.
Following the Gamecocks’ Conference USA championship in 2024, significant regression looms in 2025. PFSN projects Jacksonville State to win 6.5 games, the program’s lowest total since joining the FBS in 2023. Gavin Wimsatt starts at quarterback, and Clint Trickett serves as offensive coordinator, meaning the offensive approach will look dramatically different compared to last season’s 9-5 team.
3) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.5-5.5
- Projected CUSA Record: 4.57-3.43
- Projected CUSA Championship Win Probability: 13.2%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
Louisiana Tech enters its fifth year under Sonny Cumbie with the conference’s third-best championship probability. PFSN projects the Bulldogs to win 6.5 games in 2025 and gives them a 13.2% chance of winning CUSA.
While Cumbie has yet to post a winning season at Louisiana Tech, the Bulldogs return significant production and are expected to address their offensive struggles in 2025. Last season, the Bulldogs ranked 130th nationally, averaging just 2.9 yards per rush. However, the running game has depth and is expected to make significant contributions in 2025.
2) Liberty Flames
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.13-4.87
- Projected CUSA Record: 4.89-3.11
- Projected CUSA Championship Win Probability: 17.68%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
Once again, Liberty ranks among the top teams in CUSA. However, the Flames are expected to finish with a worse record than in 2024. Under Jamey Chadwell, Liberty went 8-4 in 2024, culminating in a Bahamas Bowl defeat. The departure of star quarterback Kaidon Salter dropped their projected win total to 7.13 for 2025.
Enter Ethan Vasko under center, who threw for 2,110 yards, 14 touchdowns, and eight interceptions at Coastal Carolina last season while also ranking 28th in FBS quarterback rushing yards (447). With an expected decline in the passing attack, Liberty is likely to continue relying on its ground game to make a push for the conference title, with PFSN giving the Flames a 17.68% chance of winning a conference title.
1) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.45-4.55
- Projected CUSA Record: 5.3-2.7
- Projected CUSA Championship Win Probability: 25.53%
- CFP Probability: 0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Championship Probability: 0%
Western Kentucky hasn’t won Conference USA since 2016, but PFSN gives the Hilltoppers the highest championship probability heading into 2025 (25.53%). Already 1-0 following a convincing victory over Sam Houston, Tyson Helton has again done an impressive job promoting FCS talent into starting roles within a system that has proven highly successful, posting eight or more victories in five of the last six seasons.
Maverick McIver transfers in from Abilene Christian (FCS) and threw for more than 400 yards and three touchdowns in the season opener. The Hilltoppers quarterback earned the highest Week 0 passing grade (83.3 PFSN QBi) and has positioned Western Kentucky to not only repeat their Conference USA Championship Game appearance from 2024 but win it all for the first time under Helton.
