The TE start/sit conversation can be a tough one given the range of outcomes down the board. Fantasy football managers who waited to address the position are wise to evaluate each week as its own entity — remember, this is a game of little battles to win the war this winter.
What should you make of the fringe options at the position this week? I’m glad you asked.
Data from TruMedia, unless stated
Which Tight Ends Should Fantasy Managers Start in Week 2?
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders (at BAL)
I loved what I saw from the rookie in his debut. The Raiders showed us this preseason that he’d be used as a weapon in a variety of ways – that proved true as he led the team in catches and receiving yards last weekend.
Bowers was on the field for 67.8% of snaps last week and nearly doubled up Michael Mayer in the routes department.
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This isn’t a committee situation; this is Bowers’ show, and that has him pushing for a top-10 ranking.
He has a chance to be the most valuable tight end in this game, and he should be started over veterans like Dallas Goedert and Pat Freiermuth with confidence, at the very least.
Mark Andrews & Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens (vs. LV)
As good as the opener was on Thursday night, fantasy managers can’t help but be sidetracked by this tight end situation that is trending toward a battle.
Likely posted a 9-111-1 stat line against the Chiefs and missed another touchdown on the final play by less than an inch. The snaps (53-52 in favor of Andrews) and routes (38-35 Andrews) were illuminating, as they point to Todd Monken essentially admitting that two of his three most dangerous pass catchers are tight ends.
That’s good for managers sweating Andrews’ (2-14-0 line at Kansas City) situation. He’s on the field and running routes in a potent offense. Great.
Not so great is his ability to get open.
Receptions per route run:
- 2021: 17.3%
- 2022: 16.7%
- 2023: 16.3%
- Week 1: 5.3%
No, I don’t think the rate he posted last week is going to stick, but Andrews may be turning into a version of George Kittle without the spike-game upside due to his threat for opportunities playing the same position.
I’m not buying the Week 11 cracked fibula as a limiting factor, and Andrews turned 29 years old seconds after the Week 1 loss ended, putting him on the back nine of the age curve but not exactly in a spot to occupy fantasy hospice.
That said, it’s clear that Likely has juice that Andrews does not. Heck, there might not be six tight ends in the league today that have that sort of explosive potential.
Last season, 24 tight ends averaged 20+ routes run per game. That’s a low bar to clear, and for his career, Likely is averaging 11.6 PPR points per game when reaching that threshold, which would have been good for TE8 in 2023.
I mentioned the Kittle comparison earlier, and I think the 49ers’ trio could give us a blueprint as to what to expect. And by “blueprint,” I mean a frustrating spot to be in for fantasy managers who thought they were avoiding a headache by selecting Andrews in the fourth round, 120+ picks ahead of Likely.
Last season, a year in which Brock Purdy posted one of the 10 most efficient quarterback seasons of all-time, the Deebo Samuel Sr./Brandon Aiyuk/George Kittle trio all reached double figures in PPR points just three times, the first occurrence coming in Week 10.
If you stole Likely late in drafts or splurged in FAAB, you’ve got an asset, but I’m not sure that either TE is going to be as consistent as Andrews was in years past.
I wish I had better news, but this is going to be a weekly headache.
I’d caution against rage-benching Andrews this week. The Raiders had the lowest opponent aDOT last season, and that might be the role Andrews is destined to fill, as his aDOT was 48.5% lower than Likely’s in the season opener. Given the varied skill sets, it seems fair to project something similar moving forward.
Which Tight Ends Should Fantasy Managers Sit in Week 2?
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (at DEN)
What is the upside in this offense for a secondary pass catcher? How many times do you think a non-DJ Moore WR/TE had 13+ expected PPR points last season under Fields’ direction?
Twice.
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That’s not going to cut it, and I’m not sure that a move to Wilson would greatly improve the potential of any of the pass catchers.
The idea of getting the No. 2 option in a passing game is appealing in theory, but when a 100% catch rate nets 6.7 PPR points, asking a question where “Steelers secondary pass catcher” is the answer means you’re asking the wrong question.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (at HOU)
You can tell me Kmet is a good player all you want, but until I play in a fantasy league that rewards talent with tangible points, I don’t really care.
Gerald Everett ran 10 more routes than Kmet in the season opener and they, as a tandem, turned 32 routes into three yards, six of which came after the catch.
You read that right.
There’s no meat on this bone. Move on.