Every year, there are players in fantasy football drafts who are being overvalued on draft day. However, within that category, there is variation.
Some players only need to slide a handful of picks to fall into the right range, while others are being so overvalued that you can basically take them off your draft board.
That is where we are with the guys in the list below. There is such a tough path to them producing on their draft day value that, for all intents and purposes, they should be on your do not draft list.
Of course, if they suddenly fall three or four rounds in value on draft day, that equation changes. But at their current price, these are players to steer well clear of.
Which Fantasy Football Options Should You Have on Your Do Not Draft List?
WR Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears’ passing attack is loaded with capable playmakers. Names like DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, and Cole Kmet all present real target competition for Keenan Allen entering his first year in the Windy City, which is a far cry from the level of target competition he saw in Los Angeles last season.
Allen proved last year he can still be a very productive fantasy WR in the right situation with 108 receptions for 1,243 yards and seven scores over just 13 games. Allen was the WR3 overall in full-PPR formats, trailing just CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill — who are both top-five fantasy picks this draft season.
But this isn’t the same situation. Allen goes from playing with Justin Herbert to a rookie quarterback. Additionally, Allen is arguably the third-best receiver on his own roster, he is now 32 years old, and he is reportedly tipping the scales at camp around 230 pounds.
When you combine all of those factors, Allen feels like a strong draft day avoid in 2024.
WR Hollywood Brown, Kansas City Chiefs
I understand Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the current final boss of the NFL. He is an outstanding player who has mastered the art of winning football games.
Yet, I will need to hear a more compelling argument from Hollywood Brown truthers than, “He’s catching passes from Mahomes,” before I believe in a career year from a player who has mostly been a fantasy disappointment throughout his first five years in the NFL.
Brown is coming off of a two-year run with the Cardinals, during which time he failed to produce a single top-40 fantasy WR season with his former college quarterback. Brown finished 2023 as the overall WR52 with 51 receptions for 574 yards and four TDs.
Sure, he dealt with some injuries last year, but Brown’s average of 9.6 fantasy points per game in full-PPR formats over 14 games played is nothing to write home about.
If you closer at his 2023 season, the numbers don’t get much more flattering.
Brown’s 1.27 yards per route run, 5.7 yards per target, and 11.2 yards per reception all ranked outside of the top 65 at the WR position and feel like a major disappointment for a player who ranked inside the top 30 in target share and air yards.
I am fully aware that the Chiefs’ passing offense had well-documented issues with drops and overall production last year. Yet, this pass-catching group still has the best fantasy TE to ever step on the field in Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice’s role as an underneath RAC threat feels very secure.
This leaves a vertical playmaking threat potentially available in this offense, which would be far more exciting if the Chiefs didn’t trade up in the 2024 NFL Draft to select Texas WR Xavier Worthy, who posted a 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine — the fastest mark posted by any player in the event’s history.
Without knowing Rice’s potential suspension situation at the moment, one can realistically see him and Kelce earning north of 100 targets this season. Worthy was utilized very often in the screen and manufactured touch game during his days at the University of Texas, which really isn’t Brown’s calling card.
Brown will certainly have his spike weeks and big performances, yet this is by far the best target competition he’s ever had in his career. This makes me nervous that he could fail to see 100 targets for the first time since his rookie year.
If the volume is a concern, then Brown’s long injury history, which includes issues with his right foot, sprains, bruises, an ankle injury, and a Lisfranc fracture over his playing career, is also a concern.
Brown is already dealing with a sternoclavicular injury that will sideline him for up to 4-6 weeks, which confirms some of my durability concerns before he has even played his first game with Kansas City.
Brown has one season where he has finished as a top 35 fantasy WR. That means his ADP price tag in the fifth round as the WR32 is way too high for a player entering the year with an injury.
Brown falls into the “better in real life than fantasy” category because of his exceptional top speed to vertically threaten opposing defenses. But I feel more comfortable projecting Kelce, Rice, and even Worthy as having larger roles in the passing game than Brown in 2024. This makes him a strong fade at his current price for me.
RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
The first full season fantasy managers got from Javonte Williams as the leading ball carrier in the Denver Broncos’ backfield was underwhelming, to say the least.
Williams’ 1,002 total yards and five scores over his 264 total touches saw him finish as the RB29 last year.
Was this completely awful? No. Would I consider this a disappointment? Yes.
What is more concerning is the lack of per-touch efficiency we saw from Williams in 2023.
Williams’ yards per carry (YPC) has dropped in three consecutive seasons, hitting a career-low 3.57 over his 217 carries in 2023. When you combine this with some of his middle-of-the-road analytical numbers, it’s hard to project much more than an RB2 ceiling for Williams this upcoming year in an offense that will likely be a work in progress with below-average quarterback play.
In fact, Williams was technically the least efficient ball carrier on the roster in 2023, finishing almost a full yard per carry behind both Samaje Perine (4.5 YPC) and undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin (5.4) last season.
Making the case even a bit more concerning is that McLaughlin produced twice as many explosive rushing plays (20+ yards) as Williams on 141 fewer attempts.
Williams’ ability to generate yards after contact looked great during his rookie year, with an average of 2.3 yards after contact per attempt. That number dropped all the way to 1.6 last season.
If Williams’ efficiency concerns continue into the early portions of the 2024 campaign, it is very possible that his role will be reduced significantly this year.
TE Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert has the type of elite catch radius, excellent hands, and productive YAC ability that have led fantasy managers to believe the South Dakota State prospect is on the cusp of a breakout season for years now. Unfortunately, Goedert is entering his seventh season and still doesn’t have a 60-reception campaign on his résumé.
Goedert finished the 2023 season as the TE14 in full-PPR formats with 59 receptions for 592 yards and three scores. This marks the fourth straight year where he has finished outside of the top 10 at the TE position.
Perhaps Goedert’s zero receptions in the season opener was foreshadowing another weird year for the veteran tight end. Goedert failed to score 10 fantasy points in 10 of his 14 games in 2023 but scored seven or more fantasy points in 11 of his 14 games.
The regression of Jalen Hurts’ passing production, the Tush Push gobbling up red zone scoring opportunities, and the presence of two great receivers — A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith — certainly didn’t do Goedert any favors last year. Yet, those are all factors that will be present again this upcoming year.
Additionally, Goedert has never topped five receiving touchdowns in a season.
If Goedert could stay healthy, he probably wouldn’t be on this list. Yet, he has missed 14 games over the last four seasons, which has to be taken into consideration as to why his injury profile presents more risk than some of the other options ranked above him at the TE position.
