The Houston Texans have injury issues at the running back position. So, how will that impact the Texans’ passing game, and will any wide receivers benefit from these injury problems?
In other words, which Texans wide receiver looks like a better option for Week 3, Tank Dell or Stefon Diggs? Let’s take a look at the fantasy football outlook for each player heading into Week 3.
Projecting Tank Dell’s and Stefon Diggs’ Fantasy Output in Week 3
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Dell is the player to start. His projected 12.2 points include four receptions and 53 receiving yards.
That stat line narrowly outperforms the consensus for Diggs, who has similar projections in many areas (10.8 points, four receptions, and 48 receiving yards).
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However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Diggs outperforming Dell Sunday. While he may not be able to duplicate his Week 1 performance — two touchdown receptions — Diggs has been the better of the two wide receivers after two weeks.
Dell’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
After having such an impressive rookie season in 2023 — six different games with at least 17 fantasy points — Dell has been quiet to start the season. After the first two weeks, Dell has just 11.2 total fantasy points. He actually has more carries (five) than receptions (four) after two games.
Last week against the Chicago Bears, Dell caught just one pass (on four targets) for negative three yards, the worst receiving game of his 13-game career.
The good news if you’re still a fan of Dell is that he hasn’t been taken off the field. Dell has been on the field for at least 63% of the Texans’ offensive snaps in both games, including 69% last week.
Maybe I'm being stubborn, but not throwing in the towel on Tank Dell.
* Has run 66 routes on 77 Stroud dropbacks
* Been schemed 5 carries
* Has a reasonable 16.1% target share
* 14.4 aDOT is 16th among 84 qualifying WRs
* Narrative far different if he makes these two plays: pic.twitter.com/DgpLuVn4IQ— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 16, 2024
And even though most fantasy managers would probably prefer his rushing and receiving yards not to be so close — 35 rushing yards, 37 receiving yards — the fact that Dell has that element remains promising.
The Texans’ injury situation for this week is also worth following for fantasy managers looking to have any Texans player in their lineup. Not only is the running back position thin for Houston — Joe Mixon (ankle) is doubtful and Dameon Pierce (hamstring) is out — but both of the Texans’ centers — Juice Scruggs (groin) and Jarrett Patterson (calf) — are questionable.
Diggs’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
Diggs followed up his impressive Week 1 performance — two touchdowns, 21.9 fantasy points — with a dud last week versus the Chicago Bears, finishing with just 37 receiving yards and 7.7 fantasy points.
The 37 receiving yards in Week 2 were actually more than he had in the season opener (33), but without any scores, the yards didn’t amount to much for fantasy managers. However, some of the plays he did make demonstrated that he still has plenty of talent.
Stefon Diggs… Very much Elite. pic.twitter.com/LcGqL7Ia3n
— Bradeaux (@BradeauxNBA) September 16, 2024
When it comes to Diggs, a big question for fantasy managers is, naturally, how much does he really have left in the tank? Last season, he had five 100-yard receiving games in the first six weeks, but he hasn’t had one in 13 games since.
So, was Week 1 an aberration or a sign that Diggs is ready to return to his old form? For me, I think he is ready to have a bounce-back season in 2024, so I’m expecting his numbers to more resemble Week 1 than last week.
The injury situation for Houston will also likely put more pressure on its passing game, and being a reliable veteran in times of need seems to be right up Diggs’ ally.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Dell and Diggs in Week 3
Dell: After an impressive rookie season, I didn’t think we’d be two weeks into Year 2 and 48.6% of Dell’s yards from scrimmage would be courtesy of the rush. The box score isn’t pretty, but he did short-arm a deep pass last week that, due to his creativity with the ball in his hands, had a shot at turning into a 70-yard score if hauled in.
I think that’s what we are looking at in 2024 for Dell: the need for him to produce when given the opportunity. Collins is going to see enough looks to overcome a bad week in terms of catch rate, and we saw in Week 1 that Stefon Diggs’ veteran savvy puts him in a position to win around the goal line.
That’s a dangerous profile that will cause headaches. Dr. Soppe prescribes you plenty of rest and one tablet of sell-high … after next week. The Texans get the Jaguars in Week 4, a defense that ranks 24th in yards per deep pass attempt and 30th in deep pass touchdown rate.
As far as this week is concerned, Dell is hovering around WR30, and I wouldn’t fault you for playing him over “better” receivers that have backups under center (Jaylen Waddle and Jayden Reed) or QBs that are playing like backups (Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen). That’s more the product of those specific situations than anything – Dell comes preloaded with a wide range of outcomes this weekend, and that can be appealing if your roster lacks upside.
Diggs: The former Minnesota Viking has seen six targets in both of his games as a member of the Texans, though it is worth noting that he satisfied a different role in each of those contests.
- Week 1: nine air yards
- Week 2: 59 air yards
Diggs saw three deep targets last week, and while that raises the potential value of his opportunities, I think it’s a net negative for his projection moving forward. We know that Collins can win on all three levels and that Dell is viewed more as a field stretcher – if Diggs’ aDOT rises, he runs into more target competition.
His former employer owns the seventh-lowest opponent aDOT since the beginning of last season, making this a “show me” game of sorts. If Diggs is earning targets less than 10 yards down the field, I’ll move him back into my low-end WR2 tier. For the time being, I’m labeling him as the WR3 in this offense, and that has me sitting him if I have reasonable depth on my roster.
Right now, he occupies the same spot in my rankings as former teammate Khalil Shakir and just about every receiver in the Packers/Titans game. The name inspires more confidence than I have in Diggs (70 receiving yards this season) right now.
Stats in this article are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated