What does T.Y. Hilton’s fantasy football outlook look like in 2021, and can he outperform his ADP with the Colts? Hilton has five seasons with 1,000 or more receiving yards. The four-time Pro Bowler has finished as a WR2 or higher in 41% of his 133 active career games. Hilton now finds himself catching passes from Wentz heading into the 2021 season. The former Eagles quarterback has the arm strength to allow the veteran receiver to attack defenses vertically.
10/16/2021: T.Y. Hilton was activated today from injured reserve. He had been sidelined since August with a neck injury, and recently acknowledged he had considered retiring as a result. With the 24-year-old Michael Pittman stepping up in his absence, Hilton will re-enter the lineup no longer assured of the targets he’s been accustomed to the past nine seasons.
T.Y. Hilton’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Hilton is one of the best receivers in Colts history. He agreed to a one-year, $10 million contract to remain in Indianapolis this offseason. Hilton will receive $8 million guaranteed with $2 million available in incentives.
The veteran receiver returns to the Colts with another new starting quarterback. Hilton caught passes from Andrew Luck in 2018, Jacoby Brissett in 2019, and Philip Rivers last season.
It took a while for Hilton to become calibrated with Rivers. From Week 1 to Week 11, he only averaged 5.6 targets, 3.2 receptions, and 36.3 receiving yards per game. Hilton finished as WR3 in his nine active games in PPR formats during this time frame. This could have resulted from the pandemic, a shortened NFL training camp, and no preseason.
Nonetheless, Hilton exploded from Weeks 12-17. He averaged 7.2 targets, 4.5 receptions, 72.5 receiving yards, and 17 PPR fantasy points per game. If Hilton becomes in sync with Wentz sooner, he could potentially begin the 2021 season where he left off in 2020.
According to Pro Football Reference, Hilton is only 640 receiving yards away from becoming the third Colts receiver to surpass 10,000+ career receiving yards. He currently trails Marvin Harrison (14,580) and Reggie Wayne (14,345).
The reunion of Carson Wentz and Frank Reich
The reunion of Colts head coach Frank Reich and Wentz in Indianapolis bodes well for Hilton. The 31-year-old receiver only needs 23 more receptions to rank fourth in franchise history in receptions. Reich was Eagles offensive coordinator for Wentz’s first two NFL seasons in 2016 and 2017.
Hilton led the team in targets (93) last season. Many speculate on whether Reich will get receivers Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, and Zach Pascal more involved in 2021. It is worth noting that Hilton has led the Colts in targets in all except two of his nine seasons.
Others believe that Hilton is past his prime. He has only accumulated 1,263 receiving yards in 25 active games over the last two seasons. Still, injuries and suboptimal quarterback play had a hand in that statistical production.
I wouldn’t close the door on Hilton just yet. Since 2000, there have been 342 receivers who have scored 225+ PPR fantasy points. Did you know that only 53 of them were age 31 or older? Hilton could be an outlier this season when considering his projected target share and the franchise records he is chasing.
Fantasy projection
Hilton had a down year with the Colts in 2020. He finished with only 56 receptions, 762 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns. Hilton averaged 67.5 receiving yards per game and scored 4 touchdowns in the six games he accumulated 6+ targets. The veteran receiver projects for around 105 targets, 62 receptions, 900 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns in 2021.
The injury to Carson Wentz is a major concern for all of the receivers, including Hilton. Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger have yet to see the field, but being young players, could be hesitant to throw the ball down the field. Equally, the injury concerns for G Quenton Nelson, C Ben Kelly, and OT Eric Fisher could have an effect on the efficiency of the passing game early in the season.
T.Y. Hilton’s ADP
Hilton is generally available after the 12th round when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker (157.3). However, in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, Hilton has an ADP of 143.63. Meanwhile, his ADP in half PPR formats on Sleeper is 147.
Should you draft Hilton in 2021?
Hilton is in an excellent position to outperform his ADP. He’s a great WR3 or flex option for your lineup.
