T.J. Hockenson has been a quality fantasy tight end for the past two seasons, but he’s never quite met the expectations he had coming out of college. Will Hockenson ever become an elite TE1? The answer to this question will determine how dynasty fantasy football managers should value Hockenson in 2022 and beyond.
T.J. Hockenson’s dynasty profile for 2022
Evaluating tight ends is always a bit trickier than running backs and wide receivers. When it comes to tight ends, it’s not enough for a player to be one of the best at his position — he also has to be a difference-maker.
Travis Kelce has been the dynasty TE1 for the last half-decade. But being the best doesn’t mean the same thing every season. From 2018-2020, Kelce finished as the overall TE1 in fantasy points per game (minimum eight games played). He averaged 18.4 ppg in 2018, 15.9 in 2019, and 20.9 in 2020. Those are all very different seasons. You can’t just say Kelce was the best tight end in fantasy and convey how well he performed.
After not doing much as a rookie, Hockenson broke out in his sophomore season. He played all 16 games, catching 67 of 101 targets for 723 yards and 6 touchdowns. He averaged 11 ppg, finishing as the TE7 (minimum eight games played).
Heading into his third season with the Lions, many expected Hockenson to take another step forward. Instead, it was more of the same, with Hockenson averaging 12.1 ppg, finishing once again as the TE7. Is this the year Hockenson becomes a high-end TE1? What does his dynasty value look like going forward?
Fantasy projection for Hockenson
Entering just his fourth NFL season, it would be foolish to say this is who Hockenson is. At the same time, the evidence is mounting that Hockenson is merely “good.”
The primary difference between Hockenson’s 2020 and 2021 seasons was his quarterback. With Matthew Stafford, Hockenson saw an 18% target share. In 2021 with Jared Goff, Hockenson’s target share increased to 21%. It’s also important to note the Lions had an incredibly weak wide receiver group in 2021. Amon-Ra St. Brown is now entrenched as a starter, and they added DJ Chark via free agency. They are also likely to draft a wide receiver. Hockenson’s target competition will be stiffer in 2022.
Hockenson’s efficiency didn’t change much despite the quarterback switch. He averaged 7 yards per target last season, only 0.2 less than the year prior, and 1.62 yards per route run, just 0.2 more than the previous year.
Although Hockenson’s 2021 season was cut short due to injury, we can still draw conclusions from a 12-game sample size. Fantasy managers should expect Hockenson to be a little more efficient given the increase in talent amongst the Lions’ wide receivers. They should also expect his target share to decrease slightly. Ultimately, the two should even out, and Hockenson should once again be in the 11-13 ppg range.
What is Hockenson’s future beyond 2022?
Hockenson remains on his rookie contract. The Lions picked up his fifth-year option, so he’s signed through 2023. At just 25 years old, Hockenson has a long career ahead of him.
The Lions and Hockenson have discussed an extension, but nothing has materialized just yet. He will likely get a second contract from the Lions, but I wouldn’t call it a certainty. If Hockenson does sign elsewhere, he will be a team’s TE1.
I have a hard time envisioning Hockenson’s dynasty value dropping as a result of him signing somewhere else in 2024. Regardless, that’s still two years away. In all likelihood, Hockenson will receive an extension ahead of the 2023 season.
What can fantasy managers expect from Hockenson?
In the short term, Hockenson should be a mid-TE1. He will be better than a random back-end TE1 streamer but not a true difference-maker.
That may seem overly negative, but it’s really not. Very few tight ends truly make a difference. Last season, Dalton Schultz was the TE5 averaging just 12.2 ppg. Unless a tight end is averaging over 15 ppg, he’s merely “fine.”
Hockenson is an incredible athlete and certainly has the upside to become an elite tight end if he ever saw the necessary volume. As a result, dynasty managers shouldn’t be eager to trade him away.
At the same time, if someone out there values Hockenson as a top tight end who is close to guys like Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews, he may be more valuable as part of a trade than on your roster.
