Sunday Night Football pick, predictions against the spread for Week 4

There is no shortage of storylines or predictions floating around as people make their picks in one of the most anticipated games of the season as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to the Northeast to take on the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. With the NFL betting world a buzz, let’s dive into this matchup and see what might be the best bet to make on Sunday Night Football.

Sunday Night Football pick and prediction | Week 4

When the NFL schedule is released, there are games we all circle on the calendar and eagerly await as the storylines or play on the field make for must-watch tv. That’s who we are as a people and as sports fans, in particular. Half the time, the strategic minutiae of X’s and O’s are cast aside as the human element draws the focus and writes the bylines. 

While we knew this was going to happen, it wasn’t until May 12 when we could circle the date on the calender. The wait is finally over. The prodigal son returns back to where it all happened.

Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA, to take on the New England Patriots. 

We always use and overplay, in my opinion, the “revenge game” narrative. But outside of maybe Brett Farve returning to Green Bay in a Minnesota Vikings jersey, I cannot think of a game that matches this magnitude. I’m not sure if I can even put Peyton Manning’s return to Indy as a member of the Denver Broncos in this category, with health issues surrounding that. 

The last thing anyone has ever questioned with Brady is his health.

Tom Brady has the Buccaneers’ offense rolling

There was always going to be a learning period for Brady in Bruce Arians’ system. Brady has spent 20 years in the same system, and while OCs had come and gone, they were building their offense’s around Brady’s terminology and philosophy, not the other way around. Add in the fact the change occurred in the most tumultuous time in recent human history, not just sports, and it’s a wonder they gelled as quickly as they did. 

Prior to Week 12 of 2020, Brady threw for 280+ yards only four times. Since then, in 12 games, including the playoffs, Brady has crossed the threshold eight times. 

Brady is off to one of the best starts of his career, having completed 97-of-141 attempts (68.79%) for 1,087 yards with 10 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. He is No. 2 in passing yards and No. 1 in touchdown passes. 

As a team, the Buccaneers sit tied at No. 1 in points per game (34.3), 10th in yards (406), while finding points on 40% of their offensive drives. 

They have one of the best pass-catching groups with two guys who would be the alpha on any other team in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Antonio Brown is still a threat on any play, and Rob Gronkowski is one of the best tight ends of all time. Yeah, about that last part.

This family reunion will be one member short

Gronkowski was in clear pain after taking a hard shot to the ribs against the Rams last week. While he did gut it out, it came at a steep price. Gronkowski will miss Sunday Night Football and a chance to spike the ball in front of the Boston natives one last time. 

This is a massive loss as not only is Gronkowski playing at an insanely high level, but in this enormous game of strategic chess, Brady just lost his most important piece. In three games this season, Gronkowski has 16 receptions on 20 targets (14.1% target share) for 184 yards and 4 touchdowns. 

The issue is — not only is Brady losing the player with who he has this unspoken mind meld that took years upon years to develop — but where Gronkowski operates is one of the few spots where opposing teams have found success against the Patriots.

The Patriots have been problematic for opposing teams on defense

While all the conversation has been on Mac Jones and the offense, it’s the defense that has shined. As a pass defense, they are top five in yards per game (159.7), completion percentage (59.2%), and rating (65.9). 

Then you get to the splits. Outside the numbers has been a no-go for QBs. The Patriots are allowing just a 55.4% completion percentage, a 40.8 passer rating, and a 0-4 TD:INT ratio. But across the middle, they are vulnerable. They allow a 66.7% catch rate, a 103.5 rating, and a 3-1 TD:INT ratio. 

Remember what I said about Gronkowski being out? Since 2020, Gronkowski has 44 receptions, 500 yards, and 6 touchdowns … guess where … over the middle — accounting for 72.1% of his receptions.

Can Mac Jones shine in the spotlight?

Believe it or not, two quarterbacks are taking the field on Sunday night. While one has found more success than anyone on the biggest stage, the other is in the biggest game of his career. 

Like other rookies QBs in 2021, Jones has seen his fair share of ups and downs. He has completed 81-of-120 passes (67.5%) for 737 yards with 2 TDs and 3 INTs. Jones has played within the offense, which is about all you can ask for, honestly. He generally takes the easy completions and operates effectively when the Patriots have a solid rushing attack. However, that’s not going to be an option on Sunday night.

The Buccaneers are a pass funnel; of the 209 plays faced, a league-leading 68.9% have been via the air (144). That’s why they are at the bottom of the league simply based on volume. The Buccaneers are dead last in yards allowed entering Week 4 (338.3) but are 15th in yards per attempt (7.3).

The problem is, for as dominant of a defensive line as the Buccaneers had in 2020, they’ve failed to generate pressure in 2021. Despite leading the league in blitz percentage (40.4%), they have a league-low 3 sacks (2.0%). 

If the Patriots’ offensive line can keep Jones clean, perhaps he can take advantage of a passing defense that is missing cornerback Jamel Dean.

Sunday Night Football prediction and pick

There is one name, arguably the biggest name, we have not even mentioned yet — Bill Belichick. This game is as much about the teams on the field as it is Belichick scheming against Brady.

In the end, this is personal, and Brady is out for blood. While we may never know what led to the separation, the likes of which would make every celebrity couple jealous, two people do — Brady and Belichick. I believe Brady has a point to prove, and for the guy who never needed a chip on his shoulder, he has all the motivation required. 

Even with Gronkowski out, the Buccaneers are one of just a couple of teams who could survive this kind of loss and keep on ticking. Watch for Brown to step up and have a big game as Brady shares the ball around. 

While 7 points is a critical number in NFL betting, I believe the Buccaneers are able to cover the spread. Last season, the Buccaneers were 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS after a loss, so don’t expect a losing skid. Brady just doesn’t allow that to happen. 

Also, primetime games are now 8-2 following Thursday Night Football on hitting the over. At some point, this has to flip and regress to the mean. I can see Brady coming out quick and forcing Jones to attempt a comeback against one of the league’s best defenses. I lean the under but wouldn’t go too heavy on it.