Week 6 Start ’Em or Sit ’Em: PPR Start-Sit Fantasy Advice for Every RB, WR, and TE To Help With Your FLEX Position

When it comes to a FLEX position in fantasy football, depending on your format, there are a number of intriguing options in Week 6. Whether you target the early morning London game or not, players like Tank Bigsby and Roschon Johnson should be considered for your lineups.

A.J. Brown, WR | Eagles

Early-week reporting paints an optimistic picture when it comes to Brown playing his first game on American soil this season on Sunday. While that means he is back into fantasy lineups, I’m measuring my expectations.

Cleveland’s defense has underachieved this season, but it remains the sixth-best unit against the slot through five weeks, and we saw Brown’s slot usage spike in Week 1 (36.6%, up from 24.9% in 2023). That’s not to say the Browns can stop him; I don’t think they can, but we are talking about a player coming off of a hamstring injury that cost him a month and could line up in an area of strength.

Cleveland is being attacked vertically on a consistent basis this season (third-highest opponent aDOT). While that typically puts Brown in the DFS go-zone, I want to see him at full strength before I assume that the elite upside is on the table.

Brown is a top-15 receiver for me this week more than a top-10 option. That shouldn’t matter in the least for you — if he plays for the Eagles, he plays for you.

Amari Cooper, WR | Browns

Volume is valuable until it’s not and it’s currently not in Cleveland.

Cooper is the only player in the league with at least eight targets in all five weeks this season, a level of involvement that should result in finishing as a top-40 receiver at a higher than 20% rate, but nope.

Despite all of the opportunities and raw talent, Cooper is not one of the 89 players with a 25-yard catch this season. Given that the Eagles have had an extra week to prepare for this vanilla matchup, I can’t recommend playing him with any sort of confidence.

You drafted him well ahead of Michael Wilson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Darnell Mooney but that doesn’t matter now – I’d play all three of those receivers over Cooper along with 32 other players at the position.

Antonio Gibson, RB | Patriots

The Texans allow 43.8% of opponent yards to be gained on the ground, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL and in line with New England’s path to overachieving this week. If they can keep the Texans in check, maybe Gibson flirts with 10 touches, but that’s not nearly enough usage when you factor in the limited capacity of this offense.

I’d hold him as a way to invest in the unknown of the Maye era, but Gibson isn’t a player that you need to think about this week.

Austin Ekeler, RB | Commanders

The sample size isn’t huge (30 touches across four games), but Ekeler has shown some of the burst that we feared he had lost (301 yards and one touchdown). The veteran running back has a 20-plus yard gain in every contest he’s appeared in this season, and while it’s unlikely that he will assume the entire role vacated by Robinson, a season-high 12-15 touches seems like a good bet.

This is a tough matchup for Ekeler, as the Ravens are an elite run defense. Baltimore is the only defense that has yet to allow a 20-yard run to a running back and they are giving up the fourth-fewest yards per carry before contact to running backs.

However, the Ravens have been vulnerable through the air. I’d be surprised if Ekeler clears 50 yards on the ground in this matchup, but a handful of targets is certainly possible and in a Jayden-Daniels-led offense, there is scoring equity for anyone on the field for the majority of snaps.

Ekeler will now be viewed as a low-end RB2, one that is more appealing in full-PPR leagues than anything else.

Alec Pierce, WR | Colts

Who says he needs the aggression of Richardson to succeed?

Pierce hauled in 45+ yard receptions on consecutive drives last week from Flacco, including a 65-yard touchdown that knotted the game with 2:40 left on the clock.

Do you believe more in Pierce or math?

Leaving a week with 22.4 PPR fantasy points is enough to put a smile on your face, but doing so on a 6.7% target share feels like stealing. We’ve yet to see Pierce earn targets on a consistent basis, and that makes him more of a fade than a play for me, even with five weeks of strong production on his 2024 résumé.

The fact that the Titans create pressure at the third lowest rate in the league can be taken one of two ways – either you believe that it allows Pierce time to run down the field, or you believe that it allows the Titans to allocate more resources to take away the chunk play.

There’s certainly an upside that needs to be considered, but the low floor has Pierce sitting as third among Colt receivers both this week and for the remainder of the season.

Alexander Mattison, RB | Raiders

With White out last week, Mattison stepped into the lead role, though a 56.9% to 43.1% snap share lead over Ameer Abduallah wasn’t exactly the bellcow role we had hoped for.

As “the guy” in Minnesota last season, Mattison struggled with efficiency (3.9 yards per carry), so it shouldn’t be surprising that he picked up just 38 yards on 15 carries against a strong Denver defense last week. I could write that off due to the matchup, but with the second-best run defense on the opposite sideline this week, it’s hard to get excited.

If White sits, Mattison would rank higher than White currently does for me because I’d assign him a higher percentage of the Vegas running back touch count, but in no scenario does this offense have a running back that resides in my top 30.

Allen Lazard, WR | Jets

Every week that Lazard produces, a spreadsheet somewhere breaks.

Lazard grades out as an ordinary receiver in almost every metric, and yet … #vibes.

I wish I could explain it. Rodgers obviously trusts him and that’s enough, but counting on him consistently is dangerous. He’s averaging just 37.8 receiving yards over his past four games and, for the season, his yards per route are below his career average.

In Week 5, he had two more air yards than he had in the three games before. For me, that’s more of a red flag than an encouraging note because Wilson and Williams project as more viable threats down the field.

Lazard (WR27 this season) has scored in the majority of his games this season, and that means I’ve been wrong more than I’ve been right up to this point. That said, you should be warned — when this game kicks off, it will have been 377 days since he last caught a TD pass in an even-numbered week.

Is that predictive? Of course not, but nothing in this profile makes much sense to me, so I thought I’d give you an alternative method of research. For those curious, the Jets play two upside offenses over the course of their next three odd-numbered weeks (Houston in Week 9 and Indianapolis in Week 11).

Alvin Kamara, RB | Saints

Did you watch the Saints on Monday night? Do you remember a single Kamara touch?

My guess is no, and that’s not on you. He offered very little in the way of memorable touches.

Kamara didn’t have a 15-yard gain. He didn’t score. And New Orleans lost by 13 points and never really had a chance to win.

In theory, that’s how weak running games play out, and yet, Kamara finished the week as RB22.

We are five weeks into 2024, and Kamara has 20 carries or five catches in every single game. He’s not Christian McCaffrey, but his role is trending in that direction in terms of bulletproof. That is stabilizing his value despite the efficiency concerns coming to fruition.

Weeks 1-2: 5.7 yards per carry
Weeks 3-5: 3.4 yards per carry

Any absence of Carr could result in disaster for fantasy’s RB2 this season (23.8 PPR points per game). If the chemistry in the passing game dries up, those limitations on the ground become more impactful and position Kamara to be more Rachaad White and less McCaffrey.

I’m still in on Kamara this week as the Bucs are the fourth-worst EPA rush defense this season, a tremendous decline for a unit that ranked sixth-best a season ago. Kamara caught 15 of 16 targets against the divisional opponent last season, giving hope that he can continue to be efficient through the air.

You’ll want to stay on top of the news. If Carr’s oblique injury is deemed a long-term issue, you owe it to your strong fantasy team to test the trade waters, even if it means selling Kamara at RB10 value more than RB2.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Lions

With the bye week now behind him, how many receivers do you want for the rest of the season over St. Brown? Detroit’s star has finished as a WR1 in three straight games and in six of his past seven dating back to last season.

We are looking at a third straight season with an on-field target share over 28% and the banged-up Cowboys figure to have little answer for one of the elite opportunity earners in our game.

Bijan Robinson, RB | Falcons

Robinson has played under 70% of the snaps in consecutive games after playing 81.7% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps through the first three weeks and now has been held under 80 yards of offense in back-to-back-to-back contests.

Is it time to worry?

No.

Personally, I define “worry” as the fretting of future performance. If you want to live in the past and mourn the matchups lost in weeks past due to underwhelming production from your RB1, be my guest, but that’s not “worrying” in my eyes.

As we look forward, there’s enough in Robinson’s profile to have me clinging to hope. If you spent your first-round pick on him, you were betting on his elite skill set, something we’ve seen glimpses of this season despite the underwhelming overall numbers. In terms of our custom elusive rating, Robinson is right where he was last season, and his splash-play potential has been evident with a 17+ yard touch in each of his past four games.

Also working in Robinson’s favor is Cousins’ play, which is causing trouble for opposing defenses. Sure, that’s a bit of a dual-edged sword — as Cousins plays better, Atlanta stands to commit less to the run — but I have my eye on the regressed loaded box rate.

Percentage of carries vs. 8+ man fronts:

• 2023: 32.2%
• 2024: 20.9%

It feels like only a matter of time until we get a big Robinson game, and this could be that performance. A little over a year ago, he made his professional debut against these Panthers and gained 83 yards while finding the end zone through the air. That’s a reasonable expectation in this game that should feature an RB-friendly game script.

Yes, I understand that it was Tyler Allgeier who opened the overtime period last week on the field and that he continues to be worked in as a consistent part of the Falcons’ offense. But if we are willing to acknowledge that Robinson’s production is on the very low end of expectations and that has resulted in Allgeier playing just 28% offensive snaps this season (2023: 31.9%), isn’t the team telling us that they are waiting for their lead back to find his form?

Braelon Allen, RB | Jets

The rookie continues to see early work and has proven capable of making chunk plays (11+ yard gain in four straight), but until we see his role increased, Allen is more of a case in theoretical upside than anything that can be bet on this point.

Hall is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry this season and is struggling at levels that we thought impossible fewer than six weeks ago — and yet, Allen hasn’t reached a 36% snap share in a single game (Week 5: 25.4%). He remains a viable handcuff and is worthy of stashing over Hail Mary receivers that lack a path to mattering, but the hope for stand-alone value seems like a pipe dream after it once seemed nearly inevitable.

Breece Hall, RB | Jets

I’m all for overthinking things, but I truly think Hall’s struggles (consecutive finishes outside of the top 35 running backs and only one week ranking better than RB12) are simple.

1.8 inches.

That’s how much yardage Hall is picking up before contact per carry this season. The thought process entering this season was that Rodgers would demand defensive respect and thus open up running lanes that Hall had yet to see in his young career.

That hasn’t been the case through five weeks. Not even close. On the bright side, the Bills allow the third most yards per carry before contact to running backs. Could this be the great right spot that Hall’s managers have been pleading for?

Hall was on the field for 74.6% of offensive snaps last week, his highest rate since Week 1 and he’s pacing for 95 targets. I think the role is still in the range of what you paid for this summer, you just need Rodgers to round into form.

Is that a safe bet? Far from it, but I’d rather take my chances there with a new head coach at the command than sell an elite talent at potentially a rock-bottom price.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR | Jaguars

Thomas was on my list of value plays this summer and even I wasn’t projecting anything close to what we’ve seen thus far, not right out of the gate anyway.

Brian Thomas Jr.

(thread) pic.twitter.com/hJOabDQo0V

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN)

He scored from 85 yards out last week and has now found the end zone in three of five games to open his career. He ranks as WR12 through five weeks this season (ahead of CeeDee Lamb and Mike Evans) and his development as a target earner is trending me toward buying this level of production being here to stay.

On-field target share:

• Week 2: 13.3%
• Week 3: 22,5%
• Week 4: 33.3%
• Week 5: 29.6%

Thomas is cashing in on the promise we all assigned to Calvin Ridley last season and it looks good on him. Only once has a receiver scored 15 PPR points against the Bears this season (Nico Collins, Week 2), and like I said in the Kirk write-up, BTJ’s profile is the one at a little more risk due to the high variance targets.

I’m Flexing him this week with the thought that the big play could be difficult to rip off in this spot – he’ll be back in my WR2 tier in game 2 of this London double header next week when the Patriots come to town.

Brock Bowers, TE | Raiders

There was no doubting the profile, and as it turns out, the pedigree of Bowers is capable of superseding any offensive limitations. He is the third first-round pick over the past decade to catch at least six passes in three of his first five career games (the others: Malik Nabers this season and DeVonta Smith in 2021) and has looked all sorts of legit in doing so.

Might Bowers be too good?

I say that tongue-in-cheek. Sort of. With Davante Adams having possibly played his last game with the franchise, Bowers and Meyers are the two members of Vegas’ offense that teams will respect. While Meyers has some potential, it’s become clear that Bowers is more of the game-breaker.

With that understood, top options facing the Steelers this season have caught just 54.8% of their targets and have yet to find pay dirt. Those trends are enough for me to look for other options at the position in a DFS setting, but Bowers’ role on the offense will lock him into season-long lineups.

Bowers could bust this week (Weeks 3-4: five catches for 60 yards total), and it wouldn’t change a thing about how I view him. This position breeds uncertainty, but few have the projectable upside of the Raiders’ rookie.

Bucky Irving, RB | Buccaneers

What is White’s strength? It’s his ability to win in the passing game, right?

For his career, White averages just 3.7 yards per carry, but with an 89.1% catch rate, he’s been paying off PPR fantasy managers on a consistent basis for the better part of 13 months.

That is exactly why it feels like Irving is inches away from truly assuming the fantasy-friendly role in Tampa Bay’s offense. On the team’s first drive last Thursday night, I found it interesting that the Buccaneers put both White and Irving on the field for a snap inside the five-yard line, opting to split the rookie out wide.

Irving has looked like the more explosive back (5.6 yards per carry), so I was interested to see that Tampa wanted to leverage his route running in a scoring situation. Are they telling us that Irving is the more dangerous route runner?

Irving’s snap shares:

• Weeks 1-3: 33.5%
• Weeks 4-5: 41.6%

There’s little question in my mind that Irving is the back to own in this backfield for the remainder of the season. However, in the short term, this feels like a frustrating situation more than one you can feel good about.

Like White, Irving is a middling Flex option this week. A backfield split like this is going to be difficult to invest in with confidence, and this matchup doesn’t exactly make it any easier.

Calvin Ridley, WR | Titans

The Colts allow the second most yards per pass this season and that opens the door for Ridley to produce his second top-50 week of the season, but with just two catches for 14 yards total in the two weeks before the Week 5 bye, we are very much in an “I need to see it before forecasting it” spot with the former Jaguar.

Spike weeks defined Ridley’s 2023 campaign and that could well be the case of 2024 as well. I don’t see a world in which you’re ever going to feel good about starting him in a season-long format, but I’d listen if you wanted to chase the ceiling potential in a DFS GPP given the favorable matchup off of a bye week.

Cam Akers, RB | Texans

Akers, over Dare Ogunbowale, is a cleaner replacement for Mixon in terms of both role and volume. He profiles as a valuable addition to an offense we all believe has significant potential.

shoutout the 11.7% of people who started Cam Akers pic.twitter.com/ihODf1Vduh

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy)

The downside of Akers, however, is multifaceted. He, of course, has his own health history, and that caps how high I can responsibly push Akers’ touch projection, regardless of his standing on the depth chart.

Even if you are willing to take Akers’ health for granted in the short term, there’s a production component that needs to be considered.

Not once in his NFL career has Akers finished with a positive production over expectation rate, something that is fueled by 20.9% of his career carries failing to gain yardage. Everything needs to go right for him to return RB2 value, especially when you consider his limitations in the passing game for an offense that wants to operate through the air.

For his career, Akers has recorded 10.4 carries per reception, a damning rate in this C.J. Stroud-led offense. Through five weeks, the Texans rank ninth in pass game EPA and 29th in rush EPA. This is an offense that is likely to lean into its strengths, and with Mixon sidelined, there is no question as to what portion of the offense they trust most.

You can consider Akers as a low-end RB2, much like other running backs in uneasy situations like Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. HOU), Zack Moss (at NYG), and Rachaad White (at NO).

CeeDee Lamb, WR | Cowboys

It’s pretty clear that things aren’t exactly clicking in Big D, but there’s nothing actionable to do with regard to their WR1. Lamb is pacing for 140 targets this season and I promise you that if he gets to that number, his fantasy managers will very much enjoy the next few months.

The struggles in terms of efficiency through the air have resulted in an increase in rush attempts (seven this season, already halfway to matching his season high). Those touches haven’t netted many fantasy points (35 yards and zero touchdowns), but it serves as further proof that this team wants to feed its alpha receiver as often as possible.

Chase Brown, RB | Bengals

Brown has 32 touches and three scores over the past two weeks in an effort to earn more work (Weeks 1-3: 19 touches). Like Moss, he’s shown viable levels of versatility with multiple catches in four of five games, but the Bengals refuse to put two backs on the field at once.

That means Brown was on the field for just 32.3% of snaps last week and in a pass-centric attack, that’s not enough playing time to earn a starting grade. You should keep him rostered because he has made his presence known but don’t jump the gun and insert him into lineups just yet.

Chris Godwin, WR | Buccaneers

Evans is the Buccaneers receiver with the high-end upside, but with this offense humming, Godwin’s elevated floor makes him a lineup lock without a second thought.

He is the first Tampa Bay Flex player with at least 11 PPR points in each of his first five games of a season since Keyshawn Johnson (2001), posting an 80% catch rate on strong volume that has allowed him to score at least 7.5% over expectation in four games this season.

The efficiency could fall back with time, but Godwin’s ability to earn looks (targeted on a career-high 25.2% of his routes) is what makes him a safe bet, and I don’t see that changing this season (59.8% slot rate in 2024, up from 32.8% last season).

With just one end-zone target on his ledger this season, the ceiling is low relative to other receivers that you’d never consider benching, though it is important to remember that not all players on your team need to be slate breakers.

Godwin has been phenomenal this season (WR6 on a per-game basis), and that should continue this week, especially if the voodoo around Evans in New Orleans scares you.

Chris Olave, WR | Saints

Entering Week 5, Olave had posted three straight top-26 finishes and seemed to be trending in a positive direction. He wasn’t doing much on Monday night in Kansas City, something that I was ready to dismiss as the result of a tough matchup, but when Carr left injured, the future outlook all changed.

His target earning has been more sporadic than most weekly starters over the course of his career and now, those opportunities aren’t nearly as valuable as they were before.

I’ve largely been burned for trusting Olave’s talent this season, consistently ranking him as a low-end WR1 while not really being rewarded for my loyalty. The math changes for all involved with a backup QB – Olave remains my favorite receiver in New Orleans, but in the scope of the NFL, he’s barely a WR2 and that’s with four teams on a bye.

To complicate matters further, Olave turned 66 routes into just 30 yards and no scores against these Buccaneers last season, a defense that was much more vulnerable to the pass than this year’s version. For his career, New Orleans’ WR1 has produced 43.8% below expectation against the divisional foe (four games) and that is in serious danger of being repeated.

Jalen Tolbert is averaging more PPR points this season than Olave and I’m not sure that changes in the short-term. I’m lumping him in with Amari Cooper and George Pickens in the tier of receiver that grades as the top option on their team but has an unreliable passer under center.

Christian Kirk, WR | Jaguars

Is Kirk poised for a few Tyler Lockett seasons? Not the current version of Seattle’s receiver, the versatile option of yesteryear that was capable of winning at every level and developed a special connection with his QB that allowed him to thrive.

I’m not there yet with this Lawrence/Kirk tandem, but I’m open to the idea. The slot specialist was hit on a 61-yard bomb last week with Lawrence uncorking a Russell Wilson-esque dime that Kirk had no choice but to catch.

Kirk’s slot rate (78%) is flirting with a career-high, but so is his aDOT, two statistics that rarely work in tandem like that. He has been fantasy football’s WR17 over the past three weeks (total PPR points), a level of production that I believe is reasonably stable for the remainder of the season.

The Bears have an interesting profile when it comes to defending the slot – bend but don’t break. They’ve allowed opponents to complete 78.3% of their passes to the slot this season (third highest) but own the second-lowest passer rating on those throws.

Kirk is a low-end WR in this tough matchup and that is reflective of how I view the receiver room in Jacksonville. I think Brian Thomas Jr. scores more points moving forward than Kirk, but I also think his range of outcomes weekly is greater and in a matchup like this, he is the one who I downgrade further.

Chuba Hubbard, RB | Panthers

The time has come, friends. Hubbard is no longer producing well “for a member of the Panthers.” He’s dominating by any standard. He has three straight games with at least 95 rushing yards, four receptions, and a touchdown.

• That’s a club that Christian McCaffrey is not a part of.
• That’s a club that Saquon Barkley is not a part of.
• That’s a club that Le’Veon Bell is not a part of.
• That’s a club that LaDainian Tomlinson is not a part of.

In fact, since 2008, the only other running backs to have three straight games checking all of those boxes are 2018 Ezekiel Elliott (Weeks 10-12) and 2018 James Conner (Weeks 5-9).

Hubbard has been a top-10 producer at the position in each of those weeks and very well could make it four straight in this matchup with a team that could allow this limited Panthers offense on the field with their 32nd-ranked third-down defense (48.5%, 10 percentage points short of where the league norm typically falls).

Hubbard’s projection carries a little lower of a floor than the running backs that routinely occupy my top 10, and that’s why he hasn’t moved up that high just yet. Still, he’s safely inside of my top 15 and my preferred option over more established names like Kenneth Walker III and the suddenly hot D’Andre Swift.

Cole Kmet, TE | Bears

Kmet caught three of four targets on Sunday, continuing his run of efficiency this season (21 catches on 24 targets), and this time, he added some upside (57 yards, including a 26-yarder).

There just isn’t a large enough role available for Kmet to produce on a consistent basis. Chicago’s big three receivers saw 20 of 28 targets in the win over the Panthers.

There will be weeks where Kmet is a viable option like this, but the risk is greater than the reward — even at a position where any signs of life are all we ask for.

Courtland Sutton, WR | Broncos

Sutton hauled in a 46-yard touchdown against these Bolts last season, but in the Bo Nix version of this offense, Sutton is just as risky as any of Los Angeles’ receivers. The Chargers own the league’s lowest opponent aDOT and the third-highest opponent three-and-out-rate, making any attempt to squint and see a ceiling case even more difficult for Denver’s clear WR1.

This projects to be an old-school game with little pace – if you can avoid watching, betting, and rostering players involved, you position yourself to enjoy this lovely October weekend much more.

Curtis Samuel, WR | Bills

Allen threw 30 passes in a game where the Bills were behind for the majority of the game and Samuel finished with a big goose egg in the receiving yards department (one catch on four targets) despite the absence of Shakir.

In August, there was hope that Joe Brady would unearth the version of Samuel that was a weekly asset with the Panthers in 2020. In October, there’s no need to hold onto that thought.

D’Andre Swift, RB | Bears

Swift took a screen pass 42 yards down to the two-yard line and ended up finishing off the drive with a TD plunge as a part of a monster first half (119 yards and the short touchdown). There are no “sure” things at the running back position these days, but Swift has been on the field for exactly two-thirds of Chicago’s snaps in three of their past four games, a role that is enough to land him RB2 status for me this week.

The Jaguars own the third-worst red-zone defense in the NFL this season, giving Swift a real chance to run for a score in a third straight game. He’s posted consecutive top-five finishes this season, totaling 166 rush yards with a pair of scores along with nine catches on nine targets for 119 yards in the process. We’ve been excited about his potential in the past and I’m almost sucked all the way back in.

If Williams is going to develop, the ground game is going to play a big role and Swift is driving that ship.

Dallas Goedert, TE | Eagles

With the variety of injuries hampering the Eagles’ potency through the air, Goedert deserves to be considered a lineup lock. He was the top-scoring tight end in the two weeks before Philadelphia’s bye (8.1 more PPR points than any other player at the position in Weeks 3-4) and has seen his aDOT jump by 20% from where it stood a season ago.

We’ll see what his usage looks like when his teammates are at full strength, but at the TE position, you’re taking any extended role that you can get, and Goedert is in that spot until proven otherwise. In a perfect world, we see him targeted in the red zone more than once every nine routes, but beggars can’t be choosers here — plug Goedert in with confidence.

Dalton Kincaid, TE | Bills

There are simply no two ways about it — Kincaid has been a disaster for those of us who thought he was a bargain at this ADP this summer, assuming that he had a chance to lead the position in fantasy points this season.

His next game with 50 receiving yards will be his first this season and, despite playing in an offense that has scored 142 points this season, he’s been held without an end-zone target in four of five games.

But wait, what’s this?

Kincaid has a 25+ yard reception in three straight games and, over that stretch, has an 11.6 aDOT (Weeks 1-2: -0.6). Now, the average depth of target obviously isn’t everything, but at the tight end position, any level of downfield upside is significantly appealing.

I’m less bullish on Kincaid than I was six weeks ago, but I remain sold on the thought that he is far better than his current numbers suggest and that he’ll be an asset moving forward. There aren’t many TEs I’d look to acquire in this year of brutality at the position — Kincaid (10 catches on 11 targets against the Jets last season) is a rare exception.

Dalton Schultz, TE | Texans

I understand the idea behind rostering Schultz, I just don’t agree with it. In theory, getting exposure to this offense with Nico Collins banged up makes sense, but are we sure that anything changes in terms of the role of Houston’s starting tight end?

The projected absence of Collins opens up scoring equity, but when you consider that Schultz has been targeted on just 6.7% of his red-zone routes (Diggs and Dell are both north of 18%), I’m not banking on him picking up the slack.

The efficiency has been an issue this year (0.68 yards per route) and given that his aDOT slots in between that of Diggs and Dell, there’s no clear path to an increase in looks. Patriot games are often rock fights and with a sub-40-point total, the sportsbooks expect that to again be the case on Sunday.

I’d rather roll the dice on Zach Ertz (at BAL) or Mike Gesicki (at NYG) this week.

Dare Ogunbowale, RB | Texans

For his career, 38% of Ogunbowale’s touches have come through the air. Those catches have accounted for 59.5% of his yards. That said, Houston’s offense has shifted its play-calling sans Mixon to an aggressive aerial approach, making this role more appealing than it sounds.

The concern in relying on the passing game (something that Ogunbowale is likely to do after a 15-carry, 30-yard showing against the Bills last week) is pretty straightforward — the Texans paid up to secure a receiving trio that ranks among the most potent in the league.

Through five weeks, Nico Collins has missed the majority of a game, and Tank Dell has a full DNP. Even with those bruises, those two — along with Stefon Diggs — have accounted for 58.8% of targets in Houston this season. I don’t have a doubt that the pass-catcher role is Ogunbowale’s to win, but the value of that role is fair to question.

Ogunbowale ranks in the Justice Hill (vs. WAS) range of secondary back for me — a role that has PPR potential if everything runs perfectly.

Darius Slayton, WR | Giants

Slayton filled the Nabers role last week with great success in Seattle to the tune of a 8-122-1 line on a team-best 11 targets. It’s unlikely that his 28.9% on-field target share sustains, but his aDOT was nearly 2.5x that of Wan’Dale Robinson last week, proof that he is the one picking up the Nabers slack more than anyone else.

His lasting value is very much a question, but he profiles as a much add, even if you don’t need the depth now (Slayton is my WR30). Multiple missed weeks resulting from a concussion for Nabers is a major concern, especially for a team with little in the way of expectations this season.

Slayton is a flex play in most formats this week, ranking in the same class of projection as Michael Wilson (at GB) and Alec Pierce (at TEN).

Darnell Mooney, WR | Falcons

Mooney’s Week 5 was an emotional rollercoaster. The Bucs had problems covering him all night, but he had a late drop that felt like a nail in the coffin as it stopped their comeback in its tracks.

As it turns out, they got another chance, and Cousins didn’t hesitate to go back to the well. Mooney has seen at least six targets with a catch of at least 24 yards in each of his past four games. He’s thriving in his role and taking advantage of his assignment by producing 11.7% over expectations (pacing for his first season above expectations of his career).

Mooney’s aDOT lines up with his career norm, but because of the stability under center, his production per target is a career-best. This isn’t a profile without flaws (the Falcons rank in the bottom half of the league in pass rate over expectation and his targets project to be the first cut should the overall pass attempts decline moving forward), but at this moment in time, he’s put himself in the weekly Flex discussion.

If you wanted to play him over every Colts receiver or every Bills receiver, I wouldn’t blame you in this soft matchup. He looks like a different player than the one we saw for four years in Chicago. Without him being pushed for the WR2 role, I don’t see the production falling off the cliff any time soon.

David Montgomery, RB | Lions

I mentioned Gibbs’ consistency, and Montgomery isn’t far behind with nothing by top-20 finishes on his 2024 résumé. As per usual, Montgomery has a touchdown rush and a reception in every game this season, a role in which we’ve seen him thrive for 13 months now.

I see no reason to worry in the least about Detroit’s drive finisher in this matchup against the second-worst red-zone defense in all the land. You want as much exposure as you can get to this game and Montgomery is no exception.

David Njoku, TE | Browns

Njoku was on the field for 42.4% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps last week in his return from the ankle sprain he suffered in the season opener and caught one of three targets for 14 yards.

I thought he looked fine, but at this point, the Browns’ offense as a whole is the primary concern. Cleveland has yet to score 20 points in a game, and Watson has yet to reach 200 yards through the air. Cooper is going to soak up plenty of usage, and while Jeudy hasn’t been productive, he’s been reasonably involved.

Add in the dump-off to the running backs and you start running out of targets for Njoku to earn. I don’t doubt that he’ll work his way back into the secondary target role behind Cooper once he is considered to be at full strength. Yet, due to the state of this offense, I’m comfortable taking a wait-and-see approach.

Njoku is currently my TE15, with any optimism I have for him being generated by a positive game script more so than wanting to bet on Cleveland’s offense in any capacity.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | Titans

Hopkins is the Titan receiver I like most this week, but that’s not exactly glowing praise as he remains outside of my top 30 at the position. Levis started once against the Colts last season and he funneled 36.4% of his passes in Hopkins’ direction, something that I could see repeating given that this team had the bye week to break down this matchup.

Indianapolis owns the lowest three-and-out rate in the league (18.2% of drives), giving this Tennessee offense the rare opportunity to stay on the field. With this being one of the more sporadic pass games in the league, Hopkins is never going to be a must-start in my rankings, but if you’re buying that there is gas left in his tank, this is as good a spot as any.

Derrick Henry, RB | Ravens

King Henry struggled for much of Week 5 and yet, he offered the game-deciding play in overtime, allowing him to post his third straight top-10 finish at the position. He has a strong case to be the top overall fantasy asset in any week, but one against the league’s worst defense in terms of yards per carry allowed before contact?

I’m in. Baltimore’s best defense against Daniels might well be establishing Henry in a high-volume way from the jump.

Devin Singletary, RB | Giants

One of Singletary’s strengths throughout his NFL career has been his availability. After four DNPs as a rookie with the Bills, he sat out just one game from 2020-23, making the groin injury that cost him last week noteworthy.

In September, Singletary had just one top-20 finish, a result of him averaging just 0.71 yards per carry before contact. There’s not much he can do about that, and with New York’s passing game not exactly threatening defenses, running room isn’t going to get much easier to find.

Assuming good health, Singletary will continue to be my highest-ranked running back in this offense, although that comes with faint praise. This is a plus matchup in every way imaginable (porous defense with an explosive offense that the Giants will be motivated to keep off the field) and yet, a top-20 ranking is no certainty.

DeVonta Smith, WR | Eagles

Smith exited Week 3 early after a cheap shot landed him in concussion protocol and resulted in him sitting the following game before the Eagles went on bye in Week 5. Before the injury, Smith posted his third straight game with at least seven grabs, a streak that remains the longest this season (Malik Nabers has also done it).

The increase in volume this season is due in part to the lack of Brown’s health but also a slight shift in role. Smith has spent 39.2% of his routes in the slot (24.3% in 2023), and in doing so, he’s sacrificed some aDOT for an increase in target share, a trade-off PPR managers should be thrilled about.

Things seem to be trending in a positive direction for Smith this week, which is why I have him penciled in as a top-30 wide receiver option with a reasonable level of confidence.

Assuming no setbacks occur, it’s plenty reasonable to expect another 12-15-point effort with more upside than we would have assumed in this matchup at the beginning of the season (Cleveland has allowed the eighth-most yards per completion through five weeks).

Diontae Johnson, WR | Panthers

Last week (3-23-0) was Johnson’s first dud since Dalton took over and while I found it troubling, it was a more difficult matchup than what is on tap for this week.

That’s not to say that Johnson is going to be a top-10 receiver like he was in Dalton’s first two starts, but a low-end WR2 finish is a reasonable assumption against a Falcons defense that owns the second-lowest opponent aDOT this season (5.5).

Something that is also being overlooked in this game is the fact that it features two of the fastest-paced offenses in the league. I’m not suggesting that means we see a ton of points put on the board, but it could result in a high possession count, and if Johnson gets enough opportunities, he’s going to produce fine PPR numbers.

DJ Moore, WR | Bears

I mentioned the growth of Williams over this first month of his career and Moore is the primary beneficiary. As the clear-cut WR1 in this offense, Moore hauled in passes of 23, 30 (touchdown), and 34 (touchdowns) in the first half last week, something that you don’t see too often.

DJ Moore is the 7th player since 2000 with multiple 30+ yard TD catches in a game from a rookie QB.

He joins Robbie Chosen (2018, also in Week 5) as the only ones on that list to do it twice in the first half@ChicagoBears #FantasyFootball

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN)

This matchup should not scare you as the Jags allow the fourth-highest opponent passer rating when throwing to the perimeter. Since joining the Bears, the only players with more yards (1,229) and a higher production over expectation grade (+16.8%) when on the perimeter than Moore are Tyreek Hill and Nico Collins.

Jacksonville is blitzing at the second-lowest rate in the league and that figures to allow the route-running savant that Moore is to thrive. You’re starting him weekly as it is and I think you can do so with more confidence in this week than most.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR | Packers

With Christian Watson (ankle) sidelined and Romeo Doubs (suspension) disgruntled, Wicks was popular in fantasy analyst circles last week and we were right.

Sort of.

As long as you ignore the final box score.

Even with a gutted receiving core, Wicks finished Week 5 fourth on the team in receiving yards. The production wasn’t pretty, but he led the team in target (seven) and had 27 more air yards than any of his teammates. Sometimes the operation can be a success and the patient still dies on the table.

That was the case last week.

I’m willing to go back to the well and trust this process. Arizona is a below-average defense in most respects, but especially when it comes to the deep ball (completion percentage and yards per attempt).

With an implied total pushing 28 points, I think Love could support at least two pass-catchers. If we take Reed for granted, that means that Tucker Kraft, Wicks, or Romeo Doubs can come through. My money is on Wicks, but there is just as much risk as reward.

Wicks’s profile isn’t that dissimilar to that of Rashid Shaheed, but with Derek Carr sidelined, I have Green Bay’s athlete ranked higher.

Drake London, WR | Falcons

Do Right and Kill Everything.

London is finally being used/producing like his pedigree always hinted at. He’s seen his target count increase each week, and he’s scored in three of his past four after scoring just twice in 16 games a season ago.

I could tell you that if you extend his production over the past month for an entire season, we’d be looking at a player with 128 catches or that he’s producing 14.1% over expectations (first two NFL seasons: -10.1%). But those numbers package up what has happened and suggest that you should be optimistic moving forward.

What if I could take out the projecting and lay out why this WILL continue?

London’s targets are trending toward the middle of the field, which is where the efficient looks traditionally come (2024 heat map on the left, 2023 on the right).

This usage doesn’t happen by accident, not over a five-game stretch with a veteran quarterback.

For me, this isn’t a sell-high situation, it’s a buy-high one if you don’t roster London and an “enjoy the ride” spot if you’re fortunate enough to have him in your starting lineup.

For whatever reason, the Panthers have shut down London. He’s failed to reach 40 receiving yards in all four of his career games against Carolina, averaging under a yard per route (0.92) in the process. The skeptics will point to Atlanta’s WR1 simply having the number of the Bucs (10-172-0 last December against Tampa Bay) and last week being an aberration, but I’m not buying it.

I value an elite talent with strong usage over silly small sample numbers like those. I just wanted to mention them to dismiss them, as it’s likely that you’ll hear them at some point as you prepare to lock in your lineup.

We now have access to the version of London that we had hoped we’d see from the jump. This situation has unlocked the best version of the 23-year-old, and I’m already giddy about what he could do during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17: Raiders-Giants-Commanders).

Evan Engram, TE | Jaguars

After appearing in every game through his first two seasons with the Jaguars (187 catches across those 34 games), Engram has now sat out three straight games with a nagging hamstring injury. These soft-tissue injuries are never fun to manage, and that’s even more true when we’re talking about a 30-year-old.

The Jaguars’ offense obviously looks different than it did last season when their featured TE recorded the second-most receptions in a season by a tight end in NFL history. We saw signs of that in the season opener, as Engram’s slot rate was down from 46.2% last season to 28.6%.

Of course, that’s a tiny sample, one that only gives a glimpse at the plan moving forward. If that is, in fact, the case, Engram’s ceiling and floor would fall well short of what we saw in 2023 on a weekly basis.

That said, he still profiles as a safe enough option at the position to be considered a weekly starter once deemed healthy.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB | Cowboys

Elliott’s name is one you know and it was easy this preseason to talk yourself into a Gus Edwards-like role for an explosive offense.

But that’s the beauty of fantasy – you’re allowed to adjust off of priors that have proven inaccurate. ‘Zeke has been held under a 31% snap share in three consecutive games and with Dowdle proving capable, there’s no reason to hold onto the veteran back at this point.

Garrett Wilson, WR | Jets

Managers with Wilson locked in weekly couldn’t have had a problem with the usage they saw last week, but for the greedy — it could have been better:

Not eactly what Wilson managers had in mind with 13 catches.

4th lowest on this list pic.twitter.com/ZPW3uAPaF3

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN)

The connection with Rodgers remains something of a work in progress, but it’s not hard to see the path to league-winning upside.

Weeks 2-4: 19.2% on-field target share
Week 5: 39.3% on-field target share

Wilson posted a 13-101-1 stat line against the overly aggressive Vikings last week, earning quick looks from Rodgers left and right. Last week was his first finish better than WR29 this season, but it certainly won’t be his last. There are plenty of questions to be asked about this offense — Wilson’s role as a bonafide alpha is not among them.

Even in a tough matchup, Wilson is easily a top-15 receiver for me and a threat to break the slate.

George Pickens, WR | Steelers

Would Pickens stand to benefit if this team elected to go with Russell Wilson under center? I tend to think so, but we can cross that bridge when/if we come to it. In the situation as it stands, Pickens hasn’t been a top-40 receiver in three of the past four weeks and is producing 19.7% below target expectation (2021-22: +17.3%).

It’s hard for me to rank a WR1 on a team that’s favored who has seen at least seven targets in 80% of his games this season, but here we are. Pickens deserves your consideration as a Flex option and is no longer a lineup staple.

Hunter Henry, TE | Patriots

New England’s offense lacks playmakers, but without a concentration of targets, Henry is going to have a difficult time producing anything close to viable fantasy numbers (Week 5 vs. Dolphins: two catches for 32 yards). Sunday was the fourth time in five weeks in which he has finished with exactly two grabs and without much explosion in his profile.

A low-volume role just isn’t going to get it done. If you want to circle back to the idea of Henry if/when Drake Maye takes the keys to this offense, be my guest. But until we reach that point, there’s no reason to dig this deep at the position.

Isaiah Likely, TE | Ravens

Likely scored a pair of touchdowns last weekend, something that should serve as a reminder as to how fragile this position is. He was on the field for over 70% of Baltimore’s snaps for the first time since Week 1, but his on-field target share was a season-low 8.8%.

If you’re betting on Likely, you’re betting on a process and on an offense. The Ravens have made it clear that they value the athleticism that Likely offers, but Todd Monken’s offense is built around the run game and spreading the targets around.

I don’t mind committing to Likely weekly and simply taking the good with the bad. His floor is the same as 90% of the players at the position, but his ceiling is higher than most. I like Baltimore to flirt with 30 points this week, which lands Likely as a TE1 for me.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | Lions

Gibbs has been a top-15 producer at the position in every game this season, improving his efficiency from a strong rookie campaign.

His grade in our custom elusive rating was among the best in the game last season at 39.6% and, through four games this year, his rate sits at 44.4%. Gibbs is on the short list of running backs who could lead the position in PPR points from this point forward and I think he starts that chase with a good showing against the third-worst run defense in the NFL by EPA.

Jake Ferguson, TE | Cowboys

Ferguson has caught at least six passes in all three games since his return to action, landing him as a top-eight PPR tight end in each of those contests.

My pitch on Ferguson this preseason was that he was a good bet as the No. 2 option in a high-volume passing attack, and that remains that leg to stand on. I still think that’s more likely than not to be the case, but Week 5 showed us that it may not need to be the case in order for Ferguson to be considered a Tier 1 tight end.

Tolbert had a great game against the Steelers (7-87-1 on 10 targets), and yet, Dallas’ tight end got home thanks to his stable and efficient role.

I’d wager that Ferguson’s target share moving forward is higher than the 17.1% we saw on Sunday night, making these 5-8 catch weeks a reasonable expectation — something that simply doesn’t exist at this position across the NFL.

Jakobi Meyers, WR | Raiders

Meyers has produced 9.6% over PPR fantasy expectation on passes thrown by Aidan O’Connell in his career (with Gardner Minshew II: -2.8%). That’s a cute trend that I might look to utilize with time, but against a stingy Steelers defense that ranks eighth in pressure rate when bringing a blitzer, I’ll pass on all Raider running backs and receivers this week and for the foreseeable future.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB | Broncos

A short touchdown catch resulted in McLaughlin’s first top-35 finish of the season, but the touch count remained far too low to justify Flexing him as a part of an underwhelming offense.

McLaughlin was on the field for a season-best 39.7% of snaps last week, so that’s a start. He’s a stash right now and I have a hard time seeing him get past that given the limitations of this offense – anything but a featured role comes with a lot of downside and Sean Payton seems committed to a backfield split.

Jalen Tolbert, WR | Cowboys

Brandin Cooks was a weekly asset last season due to holding a firm grasp on the WR2 role in this offense. He wasn’t efficient (career-low in yards per route), and yet, he fell into eight touchdowns because he was consistently on the field and in advantageous spots.

That role is now Tolbert’s. The 2022 third-round pick out of South Alabama has produced over expectations in three straight games and has as positive of a long-term outlook as any receiver that isn’t universally rostered.

Cooks (knee infection) missed his first game of the season last week and has since been placed on IR. The veteran receiver wasn’t a top-70 receiver in Week 2, 3, or 4, and if not for a defensive error in Week 1 that resulted in a 21-yard score, he’d be 0-for-4.

The WR2 role in Dallas’ offense, which continues to operate at a top-10 pass rate over expectation level, is Tolbert’s for the taking, and this plus scoring environment spot is as good as any.

Dallas goes on bye next week. Tolbert is a Week 6 Band-Aid for now and could develop into something more, given the late-season schedule.

• Week 12 at Commanders
• Week 13 vs. Giants
• Week 14 vs. Bengals
• Week 15 at Panthers

On the whole, I’m bullish on the idea of Tolbert. You just need to be aware that the bye is approaching and that his spot on your roster could be fluid.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR | Bengals

Bengals fans are allowed to be disappointed with one win through five weeks, but Chase owners can’t complain even a little bit. My WR1 for dynasty purposes has racked up 19 catches for 396 yards and five scores over his last three games, breaking coverage for a 40+ yard grab in each of those contests.

All of Chase’s efficiency metrics are on a career pace, helping mask a target rate that is actually underwhelming based on his track record. There are two ways of looking at that – either his target rate ticks up and he gains even further value or his per route production trends closer to his career rates and what we’ve seen through five weeks is the peak of his powers.

Regardless of where you stand on that statistical conundrum, Chase’s spot among the top-producing Flex players in our game is safe due to Cincinnati’s need to light up the scoreboard to remain competitive.

James Conner, RB | Cardinals

At a position that has so much turnover on a weekly basis, let alone annually, Conner just continues to churn out productive weeks. The veteran has been a top-20 running back in four of five weeks this season and while the upside isn’t special (even with all of that success, he’s just RB15 for the season), I’m more than happy to take consistent production to the bank.

The Packers have allowed the fourth most yards per carry after contact to running backs through five weeks, a potentially fatal flaw against a straight-line runner line Conner. He’s an RB1 for me this week, and he’s not the only one in this game.

James Cook, RB | Bills

We had two concerns surrounding Cook entering this season — how high was his touch ceiling and would he get any opportunities in scoring position? Week 5 is only one data point, but 22 touches with a five-yard touchdown run is certainly a positive outcome for those of us hoping that Cook can be a weekly RB1 moving forward.

In a month, Cook has as many scores as he had in the first two years of his career. He’s not Derrick Henry 2.0, but with multiple avenues to production, his fantasy profile is as stable as you could have possibly asked for when you drafted him this summer.

Can he keep the good times rolling against a Jets defense that allowed the Vikings to run for just 82 yards on 30 attempts with no single rush picking up more than 10 yards? Asking for a repeat performance of Week 5 might be a little aggressive, but I feel good about him giving you top-20 numbers. In his last game against Gang Green, Cook piled up 102 yards from scrimmage with a score, giving us a path to greatness.

Buffalo has lost consecutive games and they’ve been exposed in a few spots, but the backfield isn’t a question mark.

Jameson Williams, WR | Lions

Don’t let the Week 5 bye result in you forgetting that we were on the fringe of a true Williams breakout. He’s been a top-24 receiver in three of four games this season. I’m buying the long-term profile, but this Week 6 matchup does worry me a bit.

Before the bye, Williams earned just five targets in 46 routes over two games, usage that opens the door for a low floor if the splash play doesn’t come through. He’s obviously elite at making those big plays, but his skill set makes him more reliant on matchups than a well-rounded receiver like St. Brown and this specific spot is worrisome.

This season, the Cowboys allow a league-low 7.0 yards per deep pass attempt. They are dealing with numerous injuries, though I thought they showed well for themselves against the Steelers last week.

Williams carries enough risk to fall outside of my top 20 this week, but not enough to remove him from starting lineups. Even in a tough spot, I prefer him to Chris Olave and George Pickens.

Javonte Williams, RB | Broncos

Williams picked up 10 PPR points as a pass catcher in the win over the Raiders last week and that allowed him to finish better than RB25 for the first time this season. The rushing production has slowly been coming around for Denver’s starter in consecutive games (29 attempts for 138 yards) and with this offense relying on dump-off passes, the RB1 role is one that holds value.

The profile looks fine, but not in this matchup against the best EPA rush defense in the league. I anticipate limited efficiency from Williams in this spot and that means he likely needs a touchdown against the second-best red-zone defense to justify a top-20 ranking.

Williams sits just outside of my top 25 this week, though I’ll admit that it’s unlikely that you have a better Flex option on your roster.

Jayden Reed, WR | Packers

If you want to see confidence in a single player, watch this play on repeat. Or listen to Tony Romo on the call of it: “Jim, that is a 10 outta 10”.

JORDAN LOVE. JAYDEN REED.

📺: #GBvsLAR on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/gCdw5h1Ma1

— NFL (@NFL)

In just a month’s time, Reed has made it clear that this isn’t a deep receiver room that could see targets go anywhere in a given week – it’s a deep depth chart in the battle for the WR2 role in this offense.

Reed is averaging 12.7 PPR PPG from the slot this season, ranking him second among receivers (Chris Godwin) and putting him in position to produce on a weekly basis. His breakout down the stretch of last season very much mirrored that of Amon-Ra St. Brown and with the continued breakout, we might very well have three of the top 10 receivers the rest of the way in the NFC North.

Jaylen Warren, RB | Steelers

Both secondary backs sat out Week 5 (Warren with a knee injury and Patterson with an ankle injury), and with Patterson out, that raises some questions about Warren. With uncertainty around that and the Jets on the schedule next week, it doesn’t make me feel any better about it.

That’s two weeks in which you likely won’t consider these backs in any capacity, and with the Week 9 bye quickly approaching, you shouldn’t feel tied to either of these options on the back end of your roster.

Jerome Ford, RB | Browns

Nick Chubb (knee) returned to practice last week in a limited capacity, his first on-field work in more than a calendar year. That began the three-week clock on his return, positioning him to debut against the Ravens in Week 8. That’s a brutal matchup, sure, but it gives him a “normal” week with the Browns playing Sunday afternoon in Week 8 and 9 before going on bye in Week 10.

Adding him now could prove very fruitful if you’re confident in your roster depth — Cleveland gets Cincinnati and Miami in Weeks 16-17. If he can check all needed hurdles and this team remains competitive, I think there’s a good chance he is leading this backfield in work, and a home game against a potentially dead Dolphins team with a mini-bye (Thursday Night Football in Week 16) is appealing.

In terms of the short-term, this is an offense I’d rather not invest in and to be honest, that might not change when Chubb returns. Ford’s snap share is tanking (82.5% in Week 3 against the Giants down to 77.2% in Week 4 at Vegas and 59.3% last week in Washington) and while I’d love to get exposure against an Eagles defense that has allowed a league-high 2.3 15+ yard runs per game to RBs this season, I can’t do it with confidence here.

Ford is my RB25 this week and much more likely to move down the ranks as we approach kickoff than up.

Jerry Jeudy, WR | Browns

Jeudy tricked me last week. He entered a perfect matchup with Washington having seen at least six targets in four straight games, and I figured nothing could go wrong.

One catch for 16 yards later, I’m ready to admit I was wrong.

Now, it should be noted that he had a chance to score, but he promptly put the ball on the grass. In theory, I should be excited about this matchup against the third-worst slot defense by EPA, but I’m not. You’re not playing any Cleveland receiver at this point and with another underwhelming week, Jeudy will be on the can-cut list.

J.K. Dobbins, RB | Chargers

Dobbins looked like a league-winner through two weeks, but his fantasy stock came crashing back to earth as the schedule toughened and the game scripts moved away from his favor.

• Week 1 vs. Raiders: RB4 (12-point win)
• Week 2 at Panthers: RB5 (23-point win)
• Week 3 at Steelers: RB36 (10-point loss)
• Week 4 vs. Chiefs: RB34 (seven-point loss)

Dobbins’ elusive rating fell off of a cliff heading into the bye and has resulted in his percentage of carries that have gained yardage declining each week this season. On the positive side of things, he’s caught three passes in three of four games, though his résumé (27 catches in 24 career games entering this season) would suggest that maintaining that rate is unlikely.

Dobbins has accounted for 66.9% of the Chargers’ rushing yards this season, and with Edwards (3.0 yards per carry) posing very little threat in terms of role growth, that rate could stick for the foreseeable future.

In a game that I expect to be competitive, sheer volume lands Dobbins on my Flex radar. However, I’m not excited to plug him in and would be thrilled to move him after his next viable performance. I’m just not sure it comes this weekend against the fourth-best rush defense by EPA.

Joe Mixon, RB | Texans

This nagging ankle injury has now resulted in as many missed games for Mixon in succession as he sat over the previous two seasons combined (three). As a 28-year-old RB with over 2,000 NFL touches on his body, Mixon’s profile carried health risk this summer — you knew what you were getting into.

Houston’s dropback percentage in one-score games:

• Weeks 1-2: 57.6% (19th)
• Weeks 3-4: 69.1% (fourth)

Every team in the league played two games in both of those windows, so while the sample size isn’t huge, at least it’s the same for all involved. In the two weeks in which Mixon was active, Houston leaned into the ground game, something that is good to see when it comes to the long-term value of their RB1.

If the team with Mixon is leaking oil, buying low is something I’d strongly consider if you’re in a decent position in the standings. Could you land Mixon in a deal centered around J.K. Dobbins? Something like that would have my interest as you look to build a winner when all of the chips are in the middle of the table.

Ja’Lynn Polk, WR | Patriots

With Maye poised to make his debut, I’m all in on embracing the unknown. That doesn’t mean you’re starting Polk, but it does mean you’re stashing him.

What do you have to lose?

We know this kid can play and we know this offense wasn’t positioned to produce anything of meaning for fantasy managers. If the worst case is status quo and there is hope for an upgrade, why not give any available piece of this Patriots offense a one-week trial at the end of your roster?

Polk nearly had the go-ahead touchdown last week, but his heels landed out of bounds. The Patriots are motivated to see what this Maye/Polk combination looks like, as it could well be featured for years to come – call me crazy, but I like rostering players who are prioritized by their NFL team.

Josh Downs, WR | Colts

Downs has been targeted on 29.4% of Flacco’s throws this season and profiles as a strong PPR Flex as long as he is under center. The ankle injury cost him time early in September, thus leaving us without a clear picture of how his role works in a Richardson-led offense.

As it stands, Downs is WR22 on a per-game basis this season. If Richardson is announced the starter, Downs will settle outside of my top 30, in the same range as both Titan receivers, but if this is again the Flacco show, he’ll be bumped half a dozen spots and profile as a fine Flex play in PPR formats.

Josh Jacobs, RB | Packers

If the Packers elect to play defense with their offense, Jacobs is a good bet to repeat what he did last week in a game Green Bay controlled throughout (94 yards and a touchdown). My concerns around Jacobs are rooted in efficiency and I stand by them, but when his team is favored and facing an offense that can strike quickly, those worries are muted a bit.

For the first time this season, Jacobs is ranked as a top-10 play for me this week – his elevated floor in an offense that I trust is a basic profile that very few have access to.

Josh Palmer, WR | Chargers

Palmer has yet to reach five targets or 40 yards in a game this season. I liked his profile entering the season, but we are a ways away from him deserving to be on fantasy rosters, let alone in the mix for your starting lineup.

Keenan Allen, WR | Bears

If Allen’s name didn’t carry with it the strong résumé and productive 2023 season, would he still be rostered?

I’m sorry, that wasn’t a question. He wouldn’t be. He’s playing with a project quarterback and doesn’t yet have a top-50 finish on his ledger for the season (Parris Campbell, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Mack Hollins are on the list of WRs with a top-50 finish this season).

He’s averaging just over four yards per target and just under one PPR point per target – there’s nothing in his profile that suggests that he is close to the Flex discussion and if you wanted to move on for a player with more single opportunity upside, I can’t say that I’d blame you.

Keon Coleman, WR | Bills

The rookie was positioned to play well last week in Houston, and he eventually paid off for the spreadsheet savants with a 49-yard catch-and-run score with 4:20 left in the third quarter. Still, that was his only catch in a seemingly perfect spot.

And he may have stepped out of bounds on the splash play.

Twice.

I don’t mind returning to Coleman in a DFS showdown setting – the upside remains. Coleman’s aDOT is higher than the two featured options in this offense (Shakir and Dalton Kincaid) combined and the Jets own the second-highest opponent aDOT this season.

New York boasts a stingy defense, so why not swing for the fences?

Coleman’s profile comes preloaded with a low floor and that’s not going to change, but his role has slowly been trending in the right direction and I think there’s an upside in this profile to chase if you’re truly stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Khalil Shakir, WR | Bills

The slot machine who has an 89.1% catch rate since the beginning of last season has carried over his efficient ways into this new-look offense and profiles as the most reliable receiver in this Joe Brady-orchestrated attack.

An ankle injury kept him out of Week 5, so you’ll need to keep an eye on all reporting out of Buffalo this week before counting on Flexing him. Injuries are difficult to work around as it is and it gets more complicated when we’re talking about the final game of the week where you lack optionality if you elect to wait out official news.

Shakir has finished three of his four active weeks this season as WR31 or better. While the floor is very encouraging, this isn’t the type of player I’d make plans to wait on.

Stay tuned, we will keep you updated on the latest information regarding his status, but if we lack clarity going into the weekend, Shakir will fall way down my rankings, as the risk/reward equation makes him the type of receiver that I’ll be benching instead of risking a DNP.

Ladd McConkey, WR | Chargers

McConkey is flying a bit under the radar due to the explosive talents in this rookie WR class, but he ultimately suffers from the same issues that Johnston does. The two top-20 finishes are nice and are deserving of a look in DFS contests, but considering that he’s finished outside of the top 50 receivers in his other two games, the reward doesn’t outweigh the significant risk.

He is my highest-ranked Charger receiver of the week due to Denver’s league-leading blitz rate (41.2% of opponent dropbacks), but that doesn’t land him inside of my top 36 at the position.

Kyle Pitts, TE | Falcons

After being silenced in Week 4 against the Saints, Pitts posted a 7-88-0 line on Thursday night and was a clear focal point of the opening script. September was a slog (105 yards across four games) and had me fielding questions about which waiver-wire tight ends were better bets moving forward.

I don’t think the Week 5 breakout is something that we can count on weekly, but it was a nice reminder of the upside in this profile, something that makes him a roster lock given the limited production at the position league-wide. I was encouraged by the season-high 77.7% snap participation, but there are still some tangible concerns that I can’t get out of my head.

This season, Pitts has failed to clear a 20% target-per-route rate in a game and his on-field target rate has been under 15.5% in four of five games thus far (2023 rate: 19%). The usage is still a concern, but the athletic profile creates a top-five upside at the position and, at tight end, you can’t be nitpicky.

If you roster Pitts, be thankful for Week 5 and plan on playing him every week moving forward. The duds will come, though the impact of the spike weeks will be greater.

Mark Andrews, TE | Ravens

Andrews’ first catch last week was an impactful one (27-yard gain from the shadow of their own goal posts and down 10 points in the fourth quarter), and his target rate was as high as it’s been this season. However, the production remains well below the lofty standards Andrews has set, and I don’t think that’s going to change.

You could argue that he should have had a touchdown last week if Jackson put a throw where it needed to be. Instead, Andrews was tackled at the 2-yard line. With that, maybe the Week 6 outlook is a bit different.

Andrews’ physical profile offers less upside than that of Likely’s, and at this point, with neither occupying a stable role, that is enough for me to justify ranking the latter a handful of spots ahead.

I’m still rostering Andrews, and I think you can justify playing him in a favorable offensive spot like this. Maybe I’m just holding out hope that this team has learned from the Chiefs and will wait to unleash their All-Pro TE when it matters the most down the stretch.

Dropping Andrews, for me, isn’t much of an option unless a player like Tucker Kraft is still available for some reason. Are you gaining much in the way of stability by cutting ties for a Tyler Conklin or Mike Gesicki? I say no.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | Cardinals

The number of highlight plays for Harrison outweighs his production thus far – the elite prospect has just one finish inside of the 20 most productive fantasy receivers this season.

The on-field target share has consistently been north of 20% and that gives me optimism that stability is a possibility this season, especially with the Cardinals exploring more slot usage last week (season-high 25% of his snaps).

The ups and downs are going to be there, but I expect Harrison managers to be happy when all is said and done. This game has every chance to shoot out and with the Packers ranking as a bottom 10 defense in terms of yards per completion, air yards per throw, and touchdown pass rate, Harrison should be locked into all lineups.

This Green Bay defense is an aggressive one and while that has paid dividends thus far by way of impressive turnover numbers, that also makes them susceptible to big plays, something I think we very much could see from Harrison in this spot.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR | Colts

Pittman wasn’t a top-50 performer at the position in any of the first three weeks this season, but he’s been a top-24 WR in consecutive games. His skill set seems to mesh with just about every quarterback not named Anthony Richardson.

The bulk of his production over the past two weeks has come courtesy of Flacco and, in his last matchup against these Titans, Pittman earned a 39% target share with Gardner Minshew II under center.

We saw some signs of development in terms of his connection with Richardson just before the QB got banged up in Week 4 and that promise is why I’m comfortable in ranking him as a starter, regardless of who is under center. I’ll admit that the elevated floor that comes with Flacco makes that my optimal path for Pittman, but I think you’re playing him regardless.

Michael Wilson, WR | Cardinals

With at least six targets in back-to-back-to-back games in a role that is seeing his aDOT steadily increase, Wilson is working his way into the weekly Flex discussion. I worry about the stability of his targets if/when Trey McBride gets on track, as he then falls to third in the hierarchy of an offense that will run the ball plenty, but in the short-term, the second-year receiver deserves to be considered as a top-40 player at the position.

A big receiver with high-end potential? Wilson’s profile sounds awfully similar to that of a few Packer receivers – this is an easy game to target for DFS stacks and bettors who enjoy a nice high-scoring affair.

Mike Evans, WR | Buccaneers

Evans scored on Tampa Bay’s opening drive last week and later added his 100th career score, posting his third game north of 20 PPR points in this young season. There are few assets in fantasy sports (not just football) as bankable year over year as the Bucs’ veteran, and this season is proving to be no different.

Evans is pacing to produce 20% or better over expectations for the fourth time in five seasons, thanks in large part to him seeing a target on 25% of his red-zone routes through five weeks — his highest rate since 2019. Unfortunately, the annual consistency that we’ve come to know and love has usually included a pair of dud performances in this matchup.

The superstar receiver has reached 13 PPR points in just three of his 19 career games against the Saints. Over his past six against the divisional rival, he’s earned a target on just 11.4% of his routes.

“It gets spicy when you come to New Orleans,” Evans has said in the past of his history with Marshon Lattimore, a statement that undershoots the fire that these two have shown when squaring off.

This matchup requires a lowering of expectations. Still, with the level of scoring equity that Evans carries, given the current level of play from Mayfield, he remains a starter for me in all redraft formats.

I prefer Chris Godwin to Evans this week and will be looking elsewhere when constructing my DFS lineups. But I’m not fully dismissing Evans as a usable piece, even when presented with the specific matchup data.

Mike Gesicki, TE | Bengals

After consecutive top-10 finishes, Geiscki hasn’t been a top-25 tight end in back-to-back weeks and serves as a great reminder that if you’re streaming the TE position, you need to fully commit.

I get it. It’s easy to fall in love with any taste of production from your tight end slot. In life, commitment issues are prohibitive, but if you’re rolling the dice weekly with this spot in your starting lineup, I think it’s actually a positive.

In those two recent down weeks, Burrow has thrown for 624 yards and seven scores – it’s not as if there aren’t yards being gained through the air in Cincinnati. With Erick All Jr. (fourth-round pick out of Iowa) soaking up some usage and this offense trending back to the hyper-concentration plan of years past, you can do better.

That’s not to say you can’t circle back to Gesicki with time. That’s the point. If you’re streaming tight ends, you owe it to yourself to reevaluate the spot every week, regardless of the production that took place the week before.

Mike Williams, WR | Jets

Williams was on the field for a season-best 70.4% of New York’s offensive snaps last week in London. With some downfield work, he pushed his season aDOT north of 14 yards. On the profile side of things, those are good signs for a 6’4” target in an offense looking for viable options next to Wilson.

Considering that he has yet to finish a week better than WR45 as a Jet, though, I wouldn’t blame you if you weren’t excited about holding onto Williams.

I’m hanging in there.

Not this week (he’s not a top-50 receiver for me against a defense that has been elite at defending the deep ball for years and currently allows the third-fewest yards per long pass this season), but maybe next?

In Week 7, DJ Moore and CeeDee Lamb managers will be looking for a one-week fill-in option. And while the matchup with the Steelers may seem intimidating, they rank 22nd in yards allowed per deep pass through five weeks, giving Williams some one-play upside if his playing time continues to trend in the right direction.

Williams has yet to produce numbers despite the increase in snaps, and that has him sitting on waiver wires. He’s not a must-add, but he’s free now and will likely offer at least something of a viable ceiling next week.

If you’re the type that plays chess while your league mates play checkers, the breadcrumbs of an increase in his role could lead to something special at the perfect time — up to this point, the Rams and Jaguars are the two worst downfield pass defenses in the league and they just so happen to face the Jets in Weeks 15-16.

Najee Harris, RB | Steelers

Harris is the featured back in an offense that wants to run the ball and melt the clock – it hasn’t mattered. Harris has been held out of the end zone on all 94 of his touches and is producing at a rate that is 26.2% below expectations.

In theory, this spot against a bottom-five run defense is one that you should feel good about, but I said the same thing last week at home against a decimated Cowboys unit.

Harris (season-high 73.7% snap share in Week 5) saved a complete disaster of a day with 5.5 fantasy points in the passing game, a bail-out option that isn’t always going to be there. That said, he’s still an RB2 for me because of the state of the position and the presence of nearly evenly split committees.

Pat Freiermuth, TE | Steelers

There is one tight end in the National Football League with at least three catches in all five weeks this season, and it’s the man they call MUTH.

Yes, of course, I’m playing fast and loose with some things here. A handful of viable tight ends have missed time while others were disqualified from this list due to a bye, but that doesn’t make this any less true.

Freiermuth owns the lowest aDOT of his career and offers very little in terms of an athletic profile that gives him an after-the-catch profile, so I understand if you’re not drawn to the pride of Penn State. That said, he’s caught all seven of his targets this season when Justin Fields is outside of the pocket (69 yards and a touchdown) and has a role, even if it’s not an exciting one, in this offense.

The Raiders are a bottom-10 defense in terms of opponent pass TD rate and own the fifth-lowest aDOT against. Freiermuth is unlikely to sink your ship, and with more scoring equity than he holds in other matchups, he’s a TE1 for me.

Quentin Johnston, WR | Chargers

Johnston generated some interest heading into Los Angeles Week 5 bye as he has held an on-field target share of over 20% in three of four games. His piece of the pie makes him worthy of a roster spot, but the size of the pie is what makes him a player I can’t play.

The Chargers don’t just throw the ball less than any team in the league, they average 13.2% fewer attempts than any other team and average fewer passes thrown than eight teams’ average completions.

With the Broncos allowing the third fewest yards per pass and Patrick Surtain looming, Johnston shouldn’t be on your list of viable options this week.

Rachaad White, RB | Buccaneers

Running backs lose their jobs and/or get hurt; it happens. When the lead role is shifted from one player to another, it can be annoying, but at least we know where the touches are going (think Jerome Ford stepping into a featured role following Nick Chubb’s injury or Rico Dowdle moving past Ezekiel Elliott).

That’s not the case in Tampa Bay, which opens up all sorts of downsides for fantasy managers, no matter how on top of the news you are.

White’s two lowest snap shares this season have come in the past two weeks, and he’s trending in the wrong direction. However, his versatility is keeping him on the field for the majority of snaps (Week 5: 64.7%), and that’s creating an “if you have two, you don’t have any” situation in this backfield.

Last week in Atlanta:

• White: 13 touches for 66 yards, one red-zone touch
• Bucky Irving: 11 touches for 56 yards, four red-zone touches

If one of them gets 70% of that work, we are looking at a top-15 RB producer. Yet, as it sits right now, neither can be considered a safe RB2 due to the fragility of their touch count.

In the first three weeks of the season, White was on the field for every red-zone snap, but over the past two weeks, his rate is down to 52%. The backfield is clearly trending away from the incumbent, but not enough for a full pivot.

If you have the luxury of sitting White (RB34 this season), I would. His role is fading, and he totaled just 144 yards and zero scores on 33 touches against the Saints. But that’s unlikely to be the case in most instances with three running backs ranked ahead of him weekly (Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, and Aaron Jones) all on bye this week.

White is an average Flex play in my Week 6 rankings and is the RB2 on this roster.

Rashid Shaheed, WR | Saints

I have too much respect for the strides that Shaheed has made this season to call his production a house of cards, but it’s not much more stable than that with Carr on the pine.

A house of cards will certainly crumble. Let’s call Shaheed a Jenga pile that is balanced on a single log. It has a chance to stand, but it’s certainly not an optimal situation.

The Bucs kept the burner in front of them last season (10.2 aDOT) and it worked as they held him to 47 yards on 10 targets across two games. The Saints defaulted to taking shot after shot to Shaheed last week against the Chiefs and it only took one connection to make him worthy of being in fantasy lineups (two-thirds of his Week 5 targets came at least 15 yards downfield).

That’s not my favorite usage pattern, but certain quarterbacks can pay it off. Old-school Russell Wilson was capable of paying off such receivers and Carr has put himself in that category in terms of the quality of the deep ball.

It’s important, however, to acknowledge that QBs like that are the exception and not the rule. New Orleans has made a point of taking slot routes off of the plate of Shaheed (down more than 50% from last season), something that works if the splash plays are happening – if those big plays dry up, this is a thin profile.

I’m nothing if not an optimist. New Orleans has shown the willingness to put Shaheed in the slot before, and if they go back to that plan (something we can hope for but can’t realistically project with confidence), there’s a path to reasonable production against the worst slot defense in the NFL in terms of completion percentage.

Rashod Bateman, WR | Ravens

Two months ago, we were spoonfed Bateman propaganda by the Baltimore media. Now, after two scores in three weeks, people are looking to revisit those reports and consider him a low-end Flex option in this ideal matchup.

You get what you deserve.

We’re talking about a receiver who hasn’t reached 60 receiving yards in over 750 days and plays for an offense struggling to get its three primary pass catchers the ball on a consistent basis.

Bateman saw eight targets and scored in Cincinnati last week, his first finish better than WR40 on the season. I’d set the over/under at 2.5 more usable weeks this season — and good luck trying to predict them.

If you want to stash Bateman and sell him to the highest bidder after another great matchup, be my guest. Outside of that, I really have no interest in rostering him, let alone playing him.

Rico Dowdle, RB | Cowboys

Dowdle has a touchdown reception in consecutive games and has seen his carry count increase in three straight. My concern for new bellcow backs is usually their ability to sustain efficiency with volume.

Dowdle (50.7% snap share) checked that box last week against an elite Steelers defense. For the game, he gained at least five yards on 45% of his rushes, a rate that didn’t flinch as the night progressed (fourth quarter rate: 44.4%).

The Lions’ run defense has largely been better than the league average this season, though they have allowed rushing scores at the third-highest rate to the running back position. Dowdle checks in as my RB20 this week and I could see him moving up as October progresses if he can get his snap rate closer to 60%.

Rome Odunze, WR | Bears

I don’t mind if you want to keep an eye on an explosive talent like Odunze, understanding that development isn’t linear and we’ve seen plenty of high-pedigree receivers peak down the stretch, but I think you can afford to do it from a distance at this point.

I’m not entirely confident in my evaluation of Odunze through five games because I’m not sure that the Bears are. After posting a 12.5 aDOT in Week 2, he was almost exclusively as a deep threat for the next two games (14 targets with a 21.5 aDOT). I adjusted my projection to account for this and he promptly registered a 5.5 aDOT on six looks last weekend against the Panthers.

I think there’s a fantasy asset here, I’m just not sure this is the optimal situation for him to realize that potential as a rookie. I’m monitoring, not committing.

Romeo Doubs, WR | Packers

Week 5 was a messy one for Doubs, one that ultimately ended up in a one-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team. Reports suggested that he was skipping practices as a protest of his role in Green Bay’s offense, an odd timing for such actions, given the issue to Watson and thus, theoretically, elevating him up the target hierarchy.

A locked-in version of Doubs can be a fantasy asset, as he has proven plenty capable of winning around the goal line. For his career, 28.9% of Doubs’ PPR fantasy points have come courtesy of touchdown receptions, a rate that gives him potential in any matchup but also introduces a low floor if he’s kept out of the paint.

With just one career game of 80+ receiving yards, a disgruntled Doubs does not need to be a part of your Flex debates.

This is a developing situation. If there is a receiver with a defined role in an above-average offense on your wire, go ahead and make the move. If not, stashing Doubs is an option, as he’s a talented player, and we don’t yet know the next turn that this story will take. The Cardinals allow the highest perimeter completion percentage in the league (78.4%) and Doubs, in Weeks 1-4, was responsible for 43.5% of Green Bay’s receptions out wide.

Roschon Johnson, RB | Bears

Johnson punched in a pair of short scores last week, one coming after a Swift TD was yanked off the board due to an illegal shift. He’s carving out a role that could turn into a Flex-worthy one with time if this offense continues to move in the right direction.

For the time being, I’m not going that far and still have the second-year back ranked outside of my top 40. The touch ceiling is a low one (he’s yet to play 40% of the snaps in a game this season) and this offense still lacks consistency, but Johnson certainly deserves to be rostered at this point.

Sam LaPorta, TE | Lions

Let me walk you off the ledge.

Things aren’t as bad as they seem, I promise. The first four weeks of this season felt like an absolute disaster, but would you believe me if I told you there were a pair of top-12 finishes in there?

The TE position has been a mood ruiner for most of the season, but if you have LaPorta, I actually think you should be excited about where you stand. First of all, you’ve made it past the bye and now don’t have to worry about the headache that is streaming the position.

That may not sound like a big deal, but as someone who writes about this stuff for a living, I promise you that your mental well-being will be better with less time allotted to addressing the position. More importantly, a look underneath the hood of LaPorta paints a reasonable picture.

2023:

• 83.1% snap share
• +14.5% production over expectation
• 1.99 fantasy points per target

2024:

• 79% snap share
• +11.1% production over expectation
• 1.91 fantasy points per target

Coming out of the bye and facing a banged-up defense that is playing behind a pass-heavy, fast-moving offense — this is the perfect get-right spot. LaPorta sits atop my Week 6 tight end rankings, and I’m not apologizing for it.

Saquon Barkley, RB | Eagles

Barkley (fantasy’s RB1 thus far) is pacing for 2,210 yards from scrimmage, has multiple receptions in every game this season, and has a pair of multi-touchdown games (he was the top-scoring PPR back in both of those instances). Outside of that, he really hasn’t done much since joining the Eagles.

For a high-usage back like Barkley, I don’t love the early bye week, but if that’s all we are nitpicking, you’re living the good life. I’d expect the first month of the season to be Barkley’s best (full health, injured teammates, etc.), but that doesn’t mean he should be considered anything less than a top-five running back moving forward, and that’s certainly the case against a Browns team that isn’t far from completely giving up.

Stefon Diggs, WR | Texans

Diggs made the mem circuit last week in side-eyeing Josh Allen, but his impact in the fantasy world deserves more attention. Many thought he was cooked after a second-half swoon with the Bills last season, but he’s carved out a nice niche in the short-yardage passing game this season, posting four top-24 finishes in the process.

For the season, that consistency has him sitting as fantasy’s 10th-best receiver (16.4 PPR PPG), something that I view as more symbolic of his ceiling than a realistic expectation.

That said, I have no real reservations in labeling him as a top-20 receiver this week against a defense that has allowed the fifth most slot completions this season. The per-catch upside may no longer be elite, but another 6-8 catch game seems likely and that’ll be plenty.

Tank Bigsby, RB | Jaguars

Bigsby dismantled the Indianapolis Colts (13-101-2) to get Jacksonville their first win of the season last week, and he very much looked the part. The 65-yard touchdown run was the most valuable of his plays, but Bigsby’s first score was the more impressive one — a 19-yarder that saw a dozen yards come after contact.

Some “yards after contact” stats can be misleading as not all contact is created equal. On this score, Bigsby looked like the bully on the playground who hit puberty a few years early. We haven’t seen Isiah Pacheco run the ball for a few weeks, but it sort of looked like that and proves that Bigsby’s role is here to stay, if not grow.

In total, Bigsby has 34 carries for 273 yards this season. It should go without saying that 8.0 yards per carry isn’t going to increase, but why can’t he carve out a role of 10-12 touches per week?

If Trevor Lawrence’s strong Week 5 showing proves to be the new expectation as opposed to an outlier, that sort of role in this offense is going to put Bigsby on Flex radars as we move toward Halloween.

I’m adding him in all formats where I can, though he won’t be ranked as a Flex option for me in the short term, and that includes this week against a stingy Bears defense that is the fifth-best red-zone unit in the NFL.

Tank Dell, WR | Texans

I have my concerns about Dell when this team is at full strength, but with Collins banged up, we could enter a nice little production zone that allows you to capitalize short-term and sell before it’s too late.

Career production vs. expectation:

• Perimeter: +21.4%
• Otherwise: -4.5%

Collins has accounted for 66.9% of Houston’s perimeter yardage this season, vacating a significant role that Dell is positioned best to assume. That doesn’t mean Dell is a must-start, the aforementioned Hutchinson could eat into this perimeter role, and the presence of a shutdown corner like Gonzalez caps Dell’s ceiling.

That said, he’s a WR3 for me that profiles in a similar way to that of Dontayvion Wicks (vs. AZ), Darnell Mooney (at CAR), and Michael Wilson (at GB).

You’ll want to check back to verify that the chest injury that has plagued Dell at points this season isn’t an issue, but after practicing all week last week, he should be considered close to fully healthy.

Taysom Hill, TE | Saints

Hill suffered a fractured rib in Week 4 after authoring his best fantasy week of the season and sat out Week 5. It’s very possible that Hill will miss extended time, but Hill needs to be universally rostered with the injury to Carr and New Orleans’ offensive weapon listed as a “TE” on all fantasy providers.

If we get news that Carr is going to miss extended time, Hill is a cheat code the second he is activated. He wouldn’t assume a traditional QB role. Heck, we could easily see a committee situation in this case, but even 25 snaps under center would give Hill a top-five upside at the TE position.

What would you expect from him if Carr were to sit? Maybe 8-10 throws and 8-10 rush attempts with a good bet to handle the valuable touches?

We live in a world where 8.1 points per game is a top-10 tight end this season, and 11 ppg is TE6. With that usage projection, Hill wouldn’t have an issue providing top-10 numbers.

There are two moving pieces here in terms of health. But by stashing Hill now, you give yourself the opportunity to benefit in a major way. If things don’t work in your favor, you pivot and go on with your life.

The risk is minimal, and the reward is that of a game-changer.

Tee Higgins, WR | Bengals

It’s been a weird season by every measure for Higgins. He missed the first two weeks of the season, but it didn’t require much of a warm-up period (ala Brandon Aiyuk) as he’s earned 30 targets in his three games.

But what about the big plays? Higgins has 18 catches and yet, none of them have gained more than 17 yards (he averaged 15.6 yards per grab a season ago). His target share has spiked while his average depth of target sat at a career low, a trade-off that PPR fantasy managers should be happy with as it elevates his production floor.

Ceiling games like what we saw last weekend (14 targets and two touchdowns) aren’t going to happen often, but given the state of this defense and the comfort of Burrow, Higgins deserves to be locked into your lineup and always on your DFS radar.

Terry McLaurin, WR | Commanders

Over the past three weeks, McLaurin is fantasy’s 12th leading scorer, ranking ahead of CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, and Mike Evans. The rising tide of Daniels isn’t lifting all boats, but McLaurin’s stock is trending toward what we had wishcasted for years.

Truth be told, his 112-yard day against the Browns last week could have been even better – he fumbled a rushing attempt and dropped a fade that was put on the money and should have been a 12-yard score. He gets a Ravens defense that carries the preconceived notion of a tough spot based on what they’ve accomplished in the past, but this is a pass funnel that we need to be targeting.

Through five weeks Baltimore is the fourth-worst defense against the slot by EPA and allows the third most quick completions per game. That’ll work for ScaryTerry, as Washington’s bonafide WR1 has seen 39.7% of Commander receiver targets on those fast passes and should pile up the looks on Sunday.

Sportsbooks are expecting this to be the highest-scoring game of the week and if that is even close to accurate, McLaurin deserves to be in the top-15 conversation at the position.

Tony Pollard, RB | Titans

Pollard has been a top-20 producer in three of four games this season and he’s got a decent chance to continue that momentum given that he has played over 61% of Tennessee’s offensive snaps in every game this season.

That said, the Colts do own the fourth-best run defense, and Tyjae Spears isn’t going away. Pollard’s profile is far from perfect, but he is a top-20 option for me this week, ranking ahead of all backs that play for Florida-based teams.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB | Jaguars

Etienne’s hold on the lead role in Jacksonville is loosening with each week, but he did out-target Tank Bigsby 7-1 last week and that is a skill that will keep him on the field for the Jags and in lineup consideration for fantasy managers.

Etienne’s snap shares:

• Week 3 at Buffalo Bills: 72.1%
• Week 4 at Houston Texans: 51.7%
• Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts: 38.6%

That said, the upside isn’t nearly what we assumed it would be this summer. Jacksonville’s offensive struggles play into that, but Etienne hasn’t exactly lived up to his part of the bargain (13.6% fantasy production below expectation). He’s yet to finish a week better than RB20 this season, a trend he has a chance to break against the sixth-worst defense in terms of running back yards gained before contact this season.

Etienne’s stock is greater if the Jags can keep this game close, something they have a chance to do if this passing game can build on what they showed last week.

Trey McBride, TE | Cardinals

A little bit of a learning curve was to be expected this season for McBride. Even if you don’t want to admit it. With a healthy quarterback and an alpha receiver in town, copy-pasting a strong 2023 from the jump in 2024 was overly aggressive.

Or was it?

It was to open the season, but the overall profile is shaping up for McBride to potentially be a league winner down the stretch for a second straight season. He has yet to drop a pass this season and has assumed an eerily similar role when you look at usage rates like on-field target share and percentage of routes run from the slot.

The difference is a significant decline in catch rate (66.7% this season, down from 76.4% in 2023) and that is to blame for him having only one finish this season better than TE10.

Relax. McBride has seen his aDOT increase by 25.8% this season and that is naturally going to require some reps to perfect. The Packers allow the 10th most yards per completion this season and could serve as a launching point for him to make a push for the top TE in our game moving forward.

Trey Sermon, RB | Colts

Sermon played 58% of the snaps in Week 5 and impressed in the passing game with six catches, though those receptions did very little (seventh on the team in receiving yards). The backfield was leaned upon heavily by Joe Flacco last week and if the veteran is again under center, Sermon would profile as a fine RB2.

His stock would take a hit if Richardson assumes the starting role under center – the check-down passes would evaporate and any short-yardage opportunities would be more likely to go to the supersized QB (Tennessee owns a top-10 red-zone defense). Sermon is the backup to roster, though calling him a Taylor handcuff is a bit disingenuous, as his role looks nothing like the one vacated by the former All-Pro.

Tyler Allgeier, RB | Falcons

With Robinson struggling to pay the fantasy bills, your reflex might be to jam Allgeier into your Flex spot in this plus matchup, but I’d be careful.

Allgeier has yet to reach double figures in the carry department this season. And while his seven red-zone touches look good on the surface, remember that four of them came in the Week 2 win over the Eagles.

Allgeier remains among the most valuable of the handcuff backs in our game and should remain rostered across all formats. If you’re in jail when it comes to injuries/byes, Flexing him can be done, but outside of that situation, I’m looking for upside elsewhere.

Tyler Goodson, RB | Colts

The Colts didn’t operate any two-RB sets last week and that left 42% of the snaps available for Goodson last week against the Jags. He worked into an eight-touch role, one that isn’t fantasy viable, but with two of those opportunities netting over 15 yards, there’s a path to an increase in work.

I don’t mind rostering if you’re a Taylor manager and want to protect yourself that way, but I don’t see him getting enough touches this week to finish in the top 40 at the position.

Tucker Kraft, TE | Packers

When the articles are published this winter about which players were most common on championship rosters, Kraft could well be mentioned due to the value gained via free agency at a brutal position that is giving everybody problems.

Weeks 4-5:

• 10 catches
• 141 yards
• Three touchdowns

He’s reached 50 receiving yards while catching a touchdown in both of those contests, making him the first TE with such a streak in 2024. Asking Kraft to continue to produce at that rate is a bit optimistic, but it’s clear that this team likes his versatility and with the receiver depth chart thinning out, we are looking at a top-10 option at the position this week and for the remainder of the season.

Tyjae Spears, RB | Titans

The Colts face a league-high 34.8 rush attempts per game and that’s encouraging for an RB who is seeing his snap share gradually creep up (31.7% snaps in Week 2, 35.8% in Week 3, and 40.3% in Week 4 before the bye).

Spears has shown some upside in his young career and that’s enough to justify keeping him rostered, but he’s a ways away from unable right now.

Tyler Conklin, TE | Jets

We’ve spent plenty of brainpower through five weeks trying to identify who the second receiver in this offense is. I’ve been on the “Mike Williams is trending up” train while others have been preaching the confidence Rodgers has in Allen Lazard.

Might it just be Conklin?

The big tight end has seen his on-field target share increase in three consecutive weeks, catching 15 balls over that stretch with a pair of 20+ yard receptions.

He’s not a threat to set the fantasy world ablaze, but he’s got a consistent role (at least 28 routes run in every game this season) and seems to have the eye of his Hall of Fame QB, something we saw evidence of by way of a fourth-quarter end-zone target last week in the middle of triple coverage.

Like it or not, Conklin has established a reasonable fantasy floor and can be used with confidence this week, especially if you believe the game script works in his favor with the Bills jumping out to a lead.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | Giants

The rookie looked solid last week as he assumed the lead role for Singletary (62% of snaps to Eric Gray’s 36.6%). He wasn’t used in the exact role of the vacated starter (Singletary in September: 71.9% of snaps), but he was the clear RB1 for this team in Week 5.

Games with 18+ Carries and a 5+ yards-gained percentage of at least 50%, 2024:

• Chuba Hubbard
• Kyren Williams
• Alvin Kamara
• James Conner
• Tyrone Tracy Jr.

That’s not a bad list to find your name on with one career start. The Giants are likely to extend Tracey’s role when Singletary is back and that’s a problem, as I’m unsure that this offense can sustain multiple running backs.

That’s a long-term worry. This week, the Giants get a Bengals defense that ranks fifth worst in the red zone, giving an efficient runner like this a good look at providing Flex value.

Xavier Legette, WR | Panthers

The rookie earned a target on 27% of his route in Week 4, his first start in place of the injured Adam Thielen, but that impressive rate regressed to 8.3% last in Chicago and has him firmly off of starting radars at this point.

The kid deserves to remain rostered due to the breath of life that Dalton has breathed into this Carolina unit, but this is still a below-average offense that is going to struggle to support a third skill player.

Zach Ertz, TE | Commanders

An older tight end who has earned targets in volume in the past and plays for an explosive offense.

Did I just describe Ertz or Mark Andrews?

Ertz has turned 11 targets over the past two weeks into a whopping 8.2 PPR points. On a spreadsheet, he makes sense. Ertz plays for a defense-is-optional team that is routinely in a pass-heavy script but doesn’t have a proven WR2 (McLaurin is the only WR on Washington’s roster with even 125 receiving yards).

Daniels has proven wise beyond his years in terms of target distribution, and while that is great for the franchise both short and long-term, it means we can’t count on a player like Ertz on a consistent basis. That said, he has snuck inside my top 15 this week due to the matchup.

Through five weeks, the Ravens are a bottom-five pass defense in terms of completions, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and passer rating. They are a pass funnel that can score in bunches — the perfect matchup for fringe pass catchers, a tier that Ertz is squarely a part of.

Zack Moss, RB | Bengals

Moss has at least three catches in three straight games and has a 12+ yard rush in all five weeks. The role in the passing game is likely to stick if for no other reason than this team seems resigned to their fate as a need-to-score-in-bunches-to-keep-up team (third in pass rate over expectation).

There is the potential for the game script to work in the favor of Moss and that is what could elevate him from ordinary Flex to extraordinary RB2 as the Giants allow the most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season

Chase Brown is nipping at his heels, but Moss was on the field for 67.7% of snaps last weekend and that role should be enough to justify starting him in all formats in this spot.

Zamir White, RB | Raiders

A groin injury suffered in practice cost White Week 5, an injury that may have saved fantasy managers from themselves. We reflexively trust volume, but when you consider that White is averaging 3.1 yards per carry this season and doesn’t have a catch in consecutive games, where does the upside reside?

For the time being, White projects as the leader of this backfield when healthy, but his grasp on that role is loose and this offense isn’t likely to offer much in the way of scoring chances. You can enter Week 6 without the intent to play any Raider from this backfield and feel good about it.

Zay Flowers, WR | Ravens

This kid is talented and one who I want to buy in on before the price gets prohibitive. Flowers lit up the Bengals for 111 receiving yards, earning nearly 27% of the completions, and he looked like the versatile weapon we know him to be.

Of course, this came on the heels of a two-game run that saw him total four catches for 30 yards.

There is no denying the risk that comes with a situation like this. Flowers can be the most gifted receiver in the league, but in an offense that ranks 27th in second-half dropback rate, you’re walking a thin line.

Through five weeks, Baltimore’s WR1 has a pair of top-15 finishes and three rankings outside of the top 30. In theory, that means that you should give thought to playing Flowers every week, but I’m willing to blow through that stop sign and start him every single week.

Flowers has more receptions (24) than any of his teammates have targets so far in 2024, and I trust Baltimore’s offense to put points on the board consistently. If a manager is looking to sell Flowers after the strong Week 5 performance, I’m certainly interested.

The price likely only increases after this weekend, and with a potential shootout with the Texans on a fast track looming come fantasy Super Bowl time, the savvy fantasy manager will consider paying up now with the larger picture in mind.