It’s always scary to have your favorite bet come in a game before the weekend even starts, but that’s where I’ve landed for Week 1.
We have a lot of star power in Brazil in what could be a preview of the NFC Championship Game, but I’m fading one of the big names with my largest wager of the week.
The Pick: Jordan Love Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+128 at FanDuel)
I understand the excitement for both of these teams. Both have the QB tasked with taking this franchise to the promised land. Both brought in a new running back (and drafted depth behind him) to lead this backfield. Both made changes at defensive coordinator in an effort to plug a leak.
Let’s start with that. I ran my numbers with only 2023 inputs for every game on the Week 1 slate:
We are all watching the NFL. We need the NFL. You likely have a second screen up and if you do, here's where I currently sit for Week 1.
BOOKMARK it and come back … let's have a season! pic.twitter.com/1dDklpZhKy
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 17, 2024
The total for this game has been in the 49-50 range depending on the book you use. As you can see, my total came up just shy of that number, and that’s with me using a data set that has the Packers ranking 29th and the Eagles 30th in defensive success rate.
I don’t pretend to be some sort of coaching savant, but things can’t get worse with new blood in the coaching room, and that’s only going to result in my score projection dipping further.
I’m penciling in defensive improvement, and it could well come in a low-possession game — very low.
Following Love’s breakout, the Packers operated at the eighth-lowest pace (23rd in 2022). Prior to their last-season collapse, the Eagles crawled to the seventh-lowest offense (29th in 2022).
In essence, when these teams were going right, they slowed the game down. They were betting on their high-end offensive weapons being more efficient than yours, and they were largely right. This is exactly what the Aaron Rodgers-led Packer teams of yesteryear did.
I made the case earlier this week for the Eagles to not just win, but cover this game, and I feel reasonably good about it. If you’re buying my stance there, this bet comes into focus without much squinting.
Over the past three seasons, teams who fail to cover have seen their starting QB throw multiple touchdown passes just 28.9% of the time, down from a 50.2% rate for covering teams.
Take it a step further, and you’ll notice that, over that stretch, when a team fails to cover and the game goes under the total, their starting signal-caller throws for two or touchdowns just 17.5% of the time.
That’s the story I’m telling, and if you want more upside than a single prop carries, DraftKings gives you the best chance to do so.
Same Game Parlay: Eagles -2, under 49 points, Love under 1.5 touchdown passes pays (+380)
I can’t promise you winners because no one can. But I can promise you that I’ll comb through the numbers as much as anyone, and that we have a team of similarly-minded people working on PFN Insights like this to give you a unique perspective on the game.
That applies to the betting space, like this content, but also to our local coverage and fantasy analysis.
I hope you’re ready for a big season!