The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is upon us, which means only a handful of games remain in the season — leaving us limited time to find value in fantasy football and NFL betting. As we continue our tour around the Divisional Round while examining individual player values for prop bets and DFS, let’s see if Sony Michel provides value.
Sony Michel’s DFS value vs. Buccaneers
The Rams acted swiftly when Cam Akers went down before the season, acquiring Michel via trade with New England. The Patriots had already declined Michel’s fifth-year option, and he was on his way out of town anyway.
With Darrel Henderson Jr. missing Weeks 12 and 13 due to COVID-19, then spraining his MCL in Week 16, Michel has become a true workhorse back. From Weeks 13-18, Michel averaged 21.5 rushes, 90 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game. Additionally, he added 1.7 receptions for 11 yards on 3 targets per contest. Over these six games, Michel was No. 1 in the NFL in attempts (129) and No. 3 in yards (540). Yet, as we all know, his stranglehold on the backfield is gone.
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Akers saw his first action in Week 18 and proved he was back to full health. The only thing I can compare it to in terms of miraculous recoveries is Adrian Peterson and his ACL in 2015. In their Wild Card game against the Cardinals, it was a clean sweep for Akers, leading Michel in snaps (32 to 24), routes (10 to 8), targets (2 to 0), and carries (17 to 13).
Michel has reverted back to a backup role for the Rams. Based on how the Rams used Akers last season, averaging 24.3 opportunities in his final seven games, there is not a ton of meat left on the bone for Michel, who comes in as the No. 10 priced RB in DFS at $5,300.
The Buccaneers could stifle the Rams’ rushing game on Sunday
Whether it is Akers or Michel on the field, both will find the sledding tough against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay was sixth in total yards allowed per game (109.8) but No. 1 in rushing yards at 63.7. They slipped a bit in rush DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at 12th but were No. 5 in EPA/rush (expected points added). Yet, it’s worth pointing out they have allowed 110.5 yards over their last eight games, showing a possibly chink in their armor.
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The concern for Michel is the lack of usage in the passing game. That has never been his calling card. Even as the premier back, Michel averaged just 1.7 receptions a game. For my money, Michel is not on my radar for DFS. I would pay up for Leonard Fournette ($5,700) or even go with AJ Dillon at $5,100. Not to mention Akers at just $200 more for likely, at minimum, double the touches.
Sony Michel prop bets this weekend
Apparently, I’m not alone in my trepidation around Michel as FanDuel, DraftKings, PointsBet, and Caesars all declined to publish prop bets for him. We will need to check again later to see if they have posted any player props.
Odds are, if they publish any, I will be on the under as I do not see Akers’ role declining. The 17-to-13 carry split of last week is likely as close as it ever will be again. If you want action on the Rams’ backfield, Akers’ rushing prop is set at 48.5, a total I will gladly take the over at -110.
