After 21 weeks of NFL football, we have reached Super Bowl 56. For those looking for one last chance at the DFS or prop bet action, we dive into Los Angeles Rams RB Sony Michel to see his fantasy football outlook as he takes on the Cincinnati Bengals. Is there any value for Michel on the prop bet market, and should he be in your DFS lineups come Sunday?
Sony Michel’s DFS value vs. Bengals
When the Rams needed Michel the most, he delivered. With Cam Akers rehabbing a torn Achilles and Darrell Henderson (COVID and sprained MCL) unable to go, Michel came up huge for the Rams in their quest to make it this far. He was especially strong down the stretch.
From Weeks 13-18, Michel averaged 21.5 rushes, 90 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game. Additionally, he added 1.7 receptions for 11 yards on 3 targets per contest. Over these six games, Michel was No. 1 in the NFL in attempts (129) and No. 3 in yards (540).
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Akers’ return placed Michel in a firm No. 2 role on the offense. Michel has still seen some volume, racking up 24 carries in three playoff games. Yet, there has been little production, combining for 78 yards (3.3 ypc).
The Rams‘ rushing game has been non-existent in these playoffs. As a team, they have recorded 97 carries for 283 yards and a 2.9-yard average, with as many fumbles (2) as touchdowns. In fact, both of their touchdowns have come from Matthew Stafford on third-and-1 goal-line sneaks. Per Football Outsiders, the Rams’ -44.4% playoff rush offense DVOA is the worst on record for any Super Bowl team since 1983. Now, some context is needed due to the opponents.
Contextualizing the Rams’ poor rushing efficiency
Tampa Bay was a pass-funnel due to their nearly impenetrable run defense (No. 5 in rush EPA). Then, it was San Francisco in the Conference Championship. The 49ers have the best run fit in the NFL and were No. 2 in rush DVOA and EPA.
The Bengals are no slouch, either. They have allowed 100 yards or more on the ground just once since Week 15 (including playoffs) while holding the Ravens, Chiefs, Browns, Raiders, and Titans to less than 90 yards.
It’s hard to completely trust any Rams RB for DFS in the Super Bowl
The biggest question for me, especially for Michel, is where does he fit into this offense? Head coach Sean McVay told reporters he is fully expecting to have Henderson back for Super Bowl 56 and will deploy a three-headed committee approach. While great for them, it’s awful for fantasy and DFS.
If this were the case, which we haven’t seen this year, I believe Akers would be the volume leader, Henderson would operate in more of the passing game, and Michel would come in for some spot work on third down or potentially in goal-to-go situations.
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However, Akers is also just as capable up close. I don’t really see a path where Michel is getting above double-digit touches in this game.
For DFS, if I want a piece of the Rams’ backfield, I plan on doing one of two things. I am either paying up for Akers at $6,400 on DraftKings compared to Michel at $5,000, or I am banking on receiving upside and trying for some differentiation play with Henderson at $1,600.
Sony Michel prop bets this weekend
The Super Bowl is full of prop bets. They make up a massive chunk of the action for sportsbooks. However, what you won’t find is a ton of action on Michel. Neither FanDuel nor DraftKings have any rushing or receiving props for Michel. The only Rams RB listed for them is Akers.
Michel can be found under touchdown props. He is at +240 for an anytime score on DraftKings and FanDuel. When looking at his potential path to touches, goal-line work is one of the areas we could expect to see him on the field. It is a much better value than Akers at -110, but that doesn’t mean it is a smarter prop bet. Personally, I would steer clear and look at prop bets for other players.
