The Baltimore Ravens backfield has been a messy situation for fantasy football managers heading into 2022. The additions of Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake cloud the fantasy situation with the two veterans on the roster this year. Can fantasy managers trust either of the two backs in their starting lineup this week?
Update: Per ESPN, J.K. Dobbins has been informed that he will not be active for Week 1.
Should fantasy managers start Mike Davis or Kenyan Drake in Week 1?
When Drake was signed following the preseason and J.K. Dobbins was considered a doubt for Week 1, it looked like one of the two veterans might be an intriguing play to open the season. However, Dobbins now appears in line to play after being listed as questionable on the Ravens’ injury report. Throw Justice Hill into the mix, and this backfield could have four players active for Week 1.
The Ravens love to rotate their backs and keep things fresh. Last season, with Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Hill all injured, there were only three games where one back saw more than 50 percent of the rush attempts. The Ravens averaged 30.4 rush attempts per game in 2021, of which QB Lamar Jackson is expected to have at least 10. That leaves just 20 rush attempts on average to split between the backs.
Can fantasy managers start Davis in Week 1?
Davis is listed as the RB2 on the Ravens’ depth chart. However, even if Dobbins is active and takes the first snap, the expectation is that his workload will be limited. Therefore, Davis could end up being the primary back. The problem is that the primary back may only be in line for 8-10 rush attempts and 2-3 targets.
It is extremely tough to see how Davis can be a fantasy asset if he is seeing just 10-13 opportunities. During his career, he averages just 3.7 yards per rush attempt and has only been above four yards per attempt once. He is not an explosive rusher, making it tough to see him providing significant fantasy value unless he finds the end zone.
In 16-team leagues or deeper, starting a player projected with an upside of 12-13 opportunities and the consideration of a potential touchdown is an option. Of course, it depends on who you have on your roster. However, if you are short of options at RB for one reason or another, Davis could be an intriguing gamble. The problem is that we simply do not know what his workload will look like, making it a huge risk.
Can fantasy managers start Drake in Week 1?
Drake was cut by the Raiders after some flat performances in the preseason. He is returning from an ankle injury, and therefore, you would expect him to look better as time progresses. However, there is no guarantee he will ever find the same explosiveness he had in his career. Additionally, the fact he was not the lead back for the Raiders last year when Josh Jacobs went down is a red flag.
Drake’s upside appears to be in PPR formats. Prior to his injury last year, he had 40 targets, which he turned into 30 receptions and 291 yards. Unfortunately, the Ravens have not really featured the backs in the passing game in recent years. Last year, Devonta Freeman led the position with 2.63 targets per game. In 2020, no back averaged more than 1.6 targets per game, and it was just 1.93 for Mark Ingram as the lead back in 2019.
It is extremely tough to trust Drake entering a week where he is listed fourth at the position on the depth chart. Unless you are desperate, it is best to look elsewhere for a starting option at RB or flex this week.
