As the NFL expands its weekly calendar into Saturdays, fantasy football managers now have a new wrinkle they need to factor in when making lineup decisions for their first week of the playoffs. With the New England Patriots set to take on the Indianapolis Colts, trying to decipher New England’s passing game can be a bit of a head-scratcher. With your fantasy playoff hopes and dreams on the line in a quickly changing NFL landscape, should you start Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, or Nelson Agholor in Week 15?
Taking the points, the anti-Brandon Staley approach to the game
Before we get into this, we need to set the table as to what fantasy managers are facing right now. Week 15 in the NFL and fantasy is an unprecedented event. Games are being shuffled around, and for at least right now, there are over 140 players on the reserve/COVID-19 list, with more and more testing positive every day. This doesn’t even account for coaches like Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski or Saints head coach Sean Payton and other staff. It’s chaos, and the proverbial excrement has hit the fan at Mach 9.
I reference Chargers head coach Brandon Staley for a reason. We have seen him roll the dice and go with analytics all season rather than taking the likely sure points. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it backfires, resulting in nothing. Can we take a similar approach with players this week or take what feels to be the sure thing?
How do you navigate the moving parts of Week 15?
I bring all of this up as fantasy managers need to make a choice on how they manage risk this week. Do you risk a player on the COVID-19 list who might come back or take guaranteed points? If you see a teammate of one of your key players test positive, how likely are more players to go down a similar path? Do you have contingency plans in place?
For right now, we know there is a game happening later tonight, and there is an opportunity for fantasy production. Guys like Bourne, Meyers, or Agholor will suit up (as of now). Is it worth the risk to wait on a guy playing Monday or even in three days on Tuesday? I don’t know the right answer, and it’s a decision each manager needs to make. There is only so much we as fantasy players can do. The deck was tossed up, and we have no idea how the 52 cards will fall. Plain and simple.
Kendrick Bourne has been efficient for fantasy managers in recent weeks
I am completely forgetting about Week 13. To me, that game never happened. The Patriots passed the ball 3 times in a virtual hurricane, and all it did was throw off all the averages. Before that game, Bourne had been on a bit of a roll for fantasy managers.
From Weeks 6-12, Bourne was the WR14 and No. 22 in average weekly scoring at 14.1 PPR. Despite sitting 45th over this time in targets (31), Bourne has been ultra-efficient. He is No. 5 in reception percentage at 80.5% and has 25 receptions (29th) for 416 yards (17th) while averaging 16.6 yards per reception with 4 touchdowns.
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In his last three “real” games, Bourne has scored 20+ points in two games while scoring 3 touchdowns. He has become the Patriots’ and Mac Jones’ No. 1 WR and a worthwhile starter in most leagues.
The problem is I have a hard time trusting Bourne this week. The Colts’ defense is no joke. Over their last four games, they are No. 1 in points allowed to opposing WRs at just 17.5 PPR points per game and have allowed just one WR to finish inside the top 20 (Stefon Diggs). Bourne has had more than 5 receptions only once in his last nine games, and unless he finds the end zone, he could disappoint. I have him as a lower-end flex play in Week 15.
Jakobi Meyers struggles to put up significant fantasy numbers
We all collectively celebrated when Meyers found the end zone back in Week 10 after setting the NFL record for the most receiving yards without a score. The problem is this remains the only one he has. Aside from Week 13, Meyers has 4 or more receptions in all but one game but has finished as a WR2 or better just twice since Week 4.
From Weeks 5-12, he’s the WR31, averaging 9.9 PPR points. That doesn’t move the needle for fantasy managers needing a difference-maker. He is a low-end WR4 in Week 15 as he lacks the same upside that Bourne brings. I would have a hard time playing him in your first week of the playoffs unless COVID-19 has decimated your team.
Nelson Agholor should not be on fantasy rosters, let alone starting lineups
Agholor has 3 touchdowns on the season, and those are also the only times he has scored 10+ PPR points. He has eight games of 6 or fewer points and just two games with more than 3 receptions.
The Patriots want to run the ball and work their intermediate passing game, which is in direct contract to the deep-play ability Agholor showed off last season for the Raiders when he had nearly 900 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Agholor is averaging 4.2 targets, 2.5 yards, and 32 yards per game this season. That is not startable for fantasy or even worth rostering. I understand if your roster has taken a hit in recent days, but there are better options out there to choose from if you need to fill a void.
