The 2022 NFL season is in full swing. With a full slate of Sunday games, fantasy football managers are once again going through the trials and tribulations of dreaded lineup decisions. What is Dameon Pierce’s fantasy value this week, and should you start him against the Chicago Bears in Week 3?
Dameon Pierce’s fantasy outlook against the Bears
Now two weeks into the season, we’re starting to get a little more to work with. We still must be careful not to place too much weight on a two-game sample size, but we can start to draw more concrete conclusions.
If there were ever a time for Pierce to have his breakout game, it’s this week. After minimal Week 1 usage and a tough Week 2 opponent, Pierce gets a soft Bears rush defense.
The Texans don’t have much in the way of offensive weaponry beyond Brandin Cooks. When they’re not throwing to Cooks, they should be handing the ball off to Pierce. That bodes well for his Week 3 fantasy outlook.
Lovie Smith did, in fact, increase Dameon Pierce’s usage
In Week 1, Pierce saw just a 29% snap share. He was firmly out-touched and out-snapped by Rex Burkhead. Despite this strange usage, head coach Lovie Smith said the plan was to get Pierce more involved in Week 2. Lovie is a man of his word.
In Week 2, Pierce firmly took control of this backfield. He played 62% of the snaps and carried the ball 15 times for 69 yards. Fantasy managers can work with that type of volume.
Dameon Pierce still isn’t being used in the passing game
There are two problems with Pierce so far. First, he hasn’t scored any touchdowns. Being on the Texans in a Davis Mills-led offense, even though Pierce is the goal line back, touchdowns may be hard to come by.
Second, Pierce isn’t being used in the passing game. Through two weeks, Pierce has seen just two targets. He’s only running an average of eight routes per game. A 2.8% target share is going to make Pierce heavily dependent on touchdowns. That means fantasy managers are getting an RB3, at best, when he doesn’t score.
The Bears present a great opportunity for Dameon Pierce
This is not a great run-blocking unit. In fact, the Texans’ offensive line has generated just 1.3 yards before contact per carry for Pierce. The rookie has had to make his own yards, with over 60% of his rushing yardage coming after contact.
Fortunately, Pierce has a great shot to produce efficiently on the ground and find the end zone this week against the Bears.
Through two weeks, the Bears have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL. They were just destroyed by Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon for 193 yards on 33 carries last week.
The Texans are obviously not the Packers, but we’re also not asking Pierce to rush for over 100 yards. Something like 70 yards and a score would be just fine.
Should fantasy managers start Pierce?
Pierce looks like a good play this week for fantasy managers. Of course, do not play him over any clear every-week starter. Don’t start him over anyone elite.
He currently sits at RB28 in our Week 3 running back rankings. I could make an argument for him cracking the top 24. And that’s exactly what I think Pierce will be this week — a solid, low-end RB2. If that’s better than what you’ve got at your RB2 or Flex, then get Pierce in your Week 3 fantasy lineups.
