Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is firmly entrenched as his team’s WR1 and poised to take a big leap in this third NFL season. What is Pittman’s current ADP, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
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Michael Pittman Jr. ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
With an ADP around 43 overall, Pittman is being drafted as the WR15. Earlier in the summer, I was hoping Pittman would be toward the back part of the fourth round and the mid-to-low WR2 range. Clearly, fantasy managers are justifiably onto Pittman as a breakout star of 2022.
Despite my desire to get a discount on Pittman, I really don’t want to leave drafts without him, if possible. We are way above ADP on Pittman in our 2022 fantasy rankings, listing him as our consensus WR9. I’m willing to take him in the early third round if necessary.
Pittman’s positional ADP isn’t really the issue here — it’s his overall ADP. Pittman is going behind several running backs, tight ends, and a quarterback, all of whom he should be going ahead.
If you have a later pick, you’re positioned well to draft Pittman. However, he’s the type of receiver it’s okay to reach on, especially when the alternative is having a 0% chance of drafting him. So, even if you are in that prime location, there’s no guarantee he’ll be there. But if he is, draft him with confidence.
Michael Pittman Jr.’s projected fantasy value in 2022
If 2022 me scouted 2020 Pittman out of college with the same insights, I wouldn’t have really been into him. He spent four years at college, broke out late, and was 23 years old in his rookie season.
Then, in that season, Pittman caught 40 balls for 503 yards and a touchdown. It wasn’t exactly the type of debut that screams “future star.” This is why evaluating players has to be done on both the macro and micro levels.
Pittman took a huge step forward as a sophomore, catching 88 passes for 1,062 yards and six touchdowns. He proved to his coaches that he’s the Colts’ WR1 of the future. From a fantasy perspective, Pittman averaged 14 PPR fantasy points per game.
Entering the 2022 season, Pittman isn’t just one of “my guys,” he is my guy. With all the makings of a classic third-year explosion, who will put up WR1 numbers this season, Pittman is the one player I want in all of my leagues.
Impact of the Colts’ depth chart on Pittman’s fantasy value
There are several factors working in Pittman’s favor this season. He’s still a young player who has not yet reached his maximum potential, and his on-field ability should be greater this season than it was last season.
The Colts have a new quarterback with Matt Ryan replacing Carson Wentz. Even at age 37, Ryan is still capable of captaining an offense. He’s certainly an upgrade over Carson Wentz. Perhaps most importantly, though, is Ryan’s history with his WR1s.
From 2008-2012, Roddy White averaged 96 receptions for 1,314 receiving yards. From 2014-2019, Julio Jones averaged 103 receptions for 1,564 receiving yards. In 2013, when Jones broke his foot in Week 5, Harry Douglas went on to finish with 85 receptions for 1,564 receiving yards. And in 2020, Calvin Ridley corralled 90 receptions for 1,374 yards. Ryan’s WR1 has never failed to reach 1,000 yards. Yes, I’m counting Kyle Pitts’ 1,026 yards in 2021.
Pittman is not only in an advantageous position as it pertains to his quarterback, but he’s also in one just in general. Volume remains king in fantasy football. The best way for a player to see volume is for there to be limited competition.
Last year, Pittman reached a 25% target share with little competition at the position. The Colts are hoping to have a healthy Parris Campbell this season, but it would be a bit ambitious to call him a threat to Pittman’s workload. The only other meaningful move the Colts made was drafting Alec Pierce in the second round. Pittman absolutely has a 30% target share season in his range of outcomes.
The Colts remain a run-first offense
I would be remiss to not acknowledge the negatives associated with being on the Colts. Jonathan Taylor exists. As a result, this offense will remain run-first.
Last season, the Colts ran the ball at a 48.9% clip, the fifth-highest rate in the league. This is nothing new, either. They’ve been top 10 in run rate for three consecutive seasons. Even if Pittman does see a 30% target share, the total target pie may not be that large.
On the other hand, Ryan has averaged 608 pass attempts per year over his past 10 seasons. Head coach Frank Reich has also made it clear he understands championships aren’t won on the ground. I’m cautiously optimistic the Colts will let Ryan throw more than they did Wentz and Pittman can become the WR1 I know he can be.