New England Patriots wide receiver Jakobi Meyers once again enters the season as the team’s WR1. What is Meyers’ current ADP in fantasy drafts, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
Jakobi Meyers ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Meyers’ ADP is around 135th overall as the WR59. Someone is going to have to explain this to me because it doesn’t make much sense. This ADP suggests Meyers is going to be worse than he’s been the past two seasons.
To an extent, I do understand it. Meyers lacks any sort of high ceiling, and it’s difficult to envision him producing at anything beyond WR3 numbers, especially on a low-volume passing attack.
But if Mac Jones is allowed to throw a little more and has natural progression from his rookie to sophomore season, Meyers might just have a little more upside than he’s getting credit for.
Meyers is definitely a solid pick at his ADP. He’s a near-lock to provide a positive return on investment. On the other hand, if you’re looking for someone with difference-making upside, Meyers is just not that guy. We are slightly above consensus in ranking Meyers as our WR52 in the 2022 fantasy football rankings, but we still have him ranked below where he’ll likely finish due to upside concerns.
Jakobi Meyers’ projected fantasy value in 2022
Somehow, Meyers was able to go from UDFA to the team’s WR1. It’s a combination of hard work on his part and utter failure from everyone else.
The Patriots’ WR1 was supposed to be N’Keal Harry. But it didn’t take New England long to realize Harry is just not an NFL-caliber wide receiver. As a result, someone had to step up.
In 2020, Meyers earned a 23.2% target share and averaged 10.2 PPR fantasy points per game. Last season, it ticked up a bit to 24.4% and so did his ppg average to 11.
Somehow, despite having 168 career receptions, Meyers has just two receiving touchdowns. If his TD luck regresses to the mean, he can easily get to around 13 ppg, which is solid WR3 value.
Impact of the Patriots’ depth chart on Meyers’ fantasy value
The Patriots made two relevant moves this offseason — drafting Tyquan Thornton in the second round and trading for DeVante Parker. Both of these moves are good for the Patriots’ offense, but I don’t view them as negatively impacting Meyers.
Thornton profiles as a gadget player/special teamer, and Parker is just a role player. Meyers will enter the season as the WR1 and should maintain that role throughout the season.
The Patriots are one of the more run-heavy teams in the NFL
While Meyers should maintain a high target share, it’s not worth a whole lot if the overall target pie is small. The Patriots ran the ball at the seventh-highest rate last season. Jones averaged a mere 30.3 pass attempts per game. Unless New England changes its philosophy and starts throwing more, Meyers’ ceiling is basically what he did last season with a couple extra touchdowns tacked on.
Meyers has proven to be a catch-and-fall-down wide receiver. He has a reliable set of hands, but he’s not overly efficient. Last year, he averaged a paltry 2.9 yards after the catch per reception. It was the eighth-lowest rate amongst wide receivers with at least 50 targets.
Fantasy managers should view Meyers as a floor-based WR4. If you need a guy to fill in for byes or injuries, you can trust him to not get you zero. If you need a guy to light up the stat sheet and win you a matchup, you should probably look elsewhere.
Guys like Meyers have value in fantasy football. You always want one of them on your roster. But I really don’t want more than one — at least not after the draft. Upside wins championships, and I just don’t see much with Meyers.
