Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller is coming off an injury-riddled season and now is no longer the top option in the passing game with the arrival of Davante Adams. What is Waller’s current ADP, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
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Darren Waller ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Waller’s ADP is an interesting one because it doesn’t match my experiences in mock drafting. And I’ve done a lot of mocks. Waller is being drafted as the TE5 at around 43 overall.
This is curious because I consistently see him available in the late fourth or even early in the fifth rounds of drafts. Of course, my mock draft sample size pales in comparison to ADP data. Nevertheless, it impacts whether Waller is a value.
If I have to take Waller in the early part of the fourth round, I’m okay with it. Unfortunately, snake drafters are often hindered to their draft slot. Those picking in a later position have to either take Waller early fourth or just not get him because he won’t make it back to them in the fifth. The sweet spot for me when it comes to Waller is around the 4/5 turn.
Waller being behind George Kittle at the position is also something I haven’t seen. As in at all. I’ve never seen Kittle go ahead of Waller, nor would I take him ahead of Waller, who is ranked as our consensus TE4 in our 2022 fantasy rankings. Unless a wide receiver falls who shouldn’t be there, I find Waller a very appealing pick around the 4/5 turn.
Darren Waller’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Last season, Waller looked like a fantastic target at the 2/3 turn. He was coming off a historic close to the 2020 season where he averaged 26.5 PPR fantasy points per game over the season’s final five weeks. He felt like he would provide a decisive edge at the tight end position while not costing as much as Travis Kelce.
Instead, Waller flopped. He had his worst season since his 2019 breakout. Waller still finished inside the top six, but he averaged a mere 12.1 ppg. Typically, 12 ppg will get a tight end inside the top six, but tight ends in the first couple of rounds have to do better than that to justify their price. However, Waller was closer to C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin in fantasy points per game than he was Kelce.
Did Waller’s quality of play diminish? Did his target share drop? Not really. Waller regressed slightly, but if you compare his entire 2021 season to his first 10 weeks of 2020, the difference is just one point per game. What really happened is many of us, myself included, fell into a small sample-size trap.
Waller had 107 receptions for 1,196 yards and nine touchdowns in 2020. A whopping 40% of his receptions, 54% of his yards, and 44% of his touchdowns came over the course of those aforementioned final five games. He was never going to be able to maintain that pace. If he could, Waller would be the unquestioned first overall pick.
While Waller did miss the final month of the fantasy season due to injuries, he wasn’t producing like a true elite tight end before then anyway. With that said, I like Waller as a nice bounce-back candidate this season.
Impact of the Raiders’ depth chart on Waller’s fantasy value
Unless Waller falls beyond where he should in 2022 fantasy football drafts, I’m not banking on a Waller rebound. Yet, I do believe Waller’s ADP is later than it should be. So, it looks like I’m banking on a Waller rebound.
One of Waller’s main issues over his past three seasons has been touchdowns. He reached 17.4 ppg in 2020, buoyed by nine touchdowns. That season, however, is sandwiched between two years where he scored three and two touchdowns.
Waller is no longer the presumptive leader in target share
Over the past three seasons, Waller has been the Raiders’ unchallenged top pass catcher. He’s had target shares of 24%, 28.5%, and 24%, respectively. But this offseason, the Raiders traded for Adams. While Waller is not going to disappear, this is the Adams show now. He will lead this team in target share.
Adams will be Derek Carr’s primary read more often than not. Adams will be the bail-out guy, the red-zone guy, and it will basically just be him all over the field.
Let’s not also forget about Hunter Renfrow. He’s coming off the best season of his career and is still going to play a factor as well.
Despite what some people may tell you, more target competition is never good for fantasy football. Sometimes, it’s not a negative. There can be enough targets to go around for everyone. But it’s never a positive. And the Raiders didn’t just add someone who can earn a few targets; they added one of the best wide receivers on the planet.
Since 2018, Adams’ lowest target share is 29%. While I don’t expect Adams to hit that number as he has far more competent teammates in Las Vegas than he did in Green Bay, he’s still a near-lock for at least a 25% target share.
Meanwhile, Renfrow is coming off a season where he saw a 22% target share. That’s probably going to come down. The Raiders losing Zay Jones and his 12% target share helps a little, but the team can’t just add Adams to the mix and not see Renfrow and Waller take a dip in volume. Having Adams, Waller, and Renfrow is great for the Raiders, but not so great for fantasy.
Waller is still a top-five fantasy tight end, but he lacks the same ceiling he has in years past. Fortunately, with his ADP being two rounds below where it was last year, Waller is still someone I’m interested in targeting in 2022 fantasy drafts.
