New York Jets wide receiver Corey Davis is facing an unknown future in New York after the Jets drafted Garrett Wilson and re-signed Braxton Berrios. What is Davis’ current ADP in fantasy drafts, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
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Corey Davis ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Davis’ ADP is around 190th overall. He’s being drafted right around WR72, which is about how many wide receivers you can expect to be selected in typical 12-team leagues.
There’s a chance this is a really good value for a guy just two years removed from a top-36 finish. On the other hand, there’s a chance Davis has no fantasy value whatsoever.
Fantasy managers considering drafting Davis as their final WR need to ask themselves two questions before doing so:
1) Will Davis open the season as a starter in two-receiver sets?
2) Will Zach Wilson take a big step forward?
If the answer to either of these questions is “no,” then even at an ADP of free, Davis is probably left undrafted.
Corey Davis’ projected fantasy value in 2022
Davis posted the ever-rare fourth-year breakout in 2020. He caught a career-high 65 passes for 984 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 13.7 PPR fantasy points per game.
In 2021, Davis was brought on to be the Jets’ WR1. While he was relatively efficient with his targets, he just didn’t get many, earning just an 18.2% target share.
Davis’ fantasy production basically came down to whether he found the end zone. He caught just four touchdowns last season, and in the three games in which he scored, Davis totaled 26.7, 21.1, and 14.7 fantasy points, respectively. There was only one other game in which Davis hit double-digit fantasy points.
Unfortunately, we’ve likely already seen Davis’ best season, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be completely useless this season. However, it does mean that Davis’ upside is probably significantly lower than it was entering last season. Fantasy managers looking to draft Davis need to realize that the best you’re getting is a low-end WR3, and that’s if everything breaks right.
Impact of the Jets’ depth chart on Davis’ fantasy value
Davis has been around for a while. He’s entering his sixth NFL season, but he’s only 27 years old. While he’s obviously never going to live up to the expectations of being a No. 5 overall pick, Davis still has a good few years left as a potentially productive receiver.
Even though Davis is just 27, the Jets clearly wanted to pair Zach Wilson with two younger wide receivers for the foreseeable future. They drafted one in 2021 (Elijah Moore) and the other this year (Garrett Wilson).
Moore established himself as the Jets’ WR1 over the second half of his first season. Wilson will likely open the season as the WR3 behind Davis or WR4 behind Braxton Berrios, but I don’t expect him to stay there for long.
At the very least, Wilson is the Jets’ WR2 of the future, if not their WR1. This could end up being a 1a/1b situation similar to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in Cincinnati.
Zach Wilson has a lot of work to do to support all these pass catchers
To say Zach Wilson struggled as a rookie would be an understatement. He completed 55.6% of his passes and averaged fewer than 180 passing yards per game.
Even if Davis opens the season as the WR2, Wilson has to be better to support any pass catchers beyond Moore. Assuming Wilson does progress and can support two receivers, can he support three? If Garrett Wilson overtakes Davis early in the season, that’s probably a death sentence of Davis’ fantasy value.
We haven’t even discussed the roles of Berrios, Tyler Conklin, C.J. Uzomah, or the running backs yet.
The point is the Jets have a lot of weapons. I’d go so far as to say this is a legitimate Super Bowl roster if they have a quarterback. Fantasy managers should expect some inconsistency in usage early in the season as the players figure out their roles.
If the Jets are a run-heavy team with Breece Hall and Michael Carter, Davis will struggle for fantasy relevance even if he’s the WR2. It just feels like a lot has to go right for Davis to be someone worth rostering in fantasy leagues this season.
Davis is currently ranked as our consensus WR67 in PFN’s 2022 fantasy football rankings. Even so, there are plenty of guys ranked below him that have much higher ceilings. As a result, you’re better off drafting someone with both a higher floor and higher ceiling than Davis.
