The Los Angeles Rams acquired running back Sony Michel from the New England Patriots in exchange for a 2022 sixth-rounder and a 2023 fourth-rounder. He’s also in the last year of his contract. The trade implies Michel will be featured, but should you draft him in fantasy football this season?
What is Sony Michel’s fantasy outlook in Los Angeles?
The Patriots selected Michel in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. He was New England’s starter from 2018-2019, averaging 17 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets), 69 total yards, and 10.2 PPR fantasy points per game in 29 active contests.
However, Michel was not used as a receiver out of the backfield during his first two seasons. He only averaged 1 target per game. In three seasons with the Patriots, he only caught 26 of 40 targets. Interestingly, Michel lost the starting job to Damien Harris in 2020.
Harris prospered in the Patriots’ run-heavy offense with quarterback Cam Newton under center. In 2020, New England averaged the third-most rushing attempts (31.4). Harris got off to a slow start because of an ankle injury. Yet, in 10 games played, he amassed nearly 14 rushing attempts and 69 rushing yards per game.
Don’t overlook Michel’s 2020 production
Michel quietly had a solid 2020 campaign, but he only played 33% of the offensive snaps in nine active games, as he missed seven with a quadriceps injury. While he averaged just 9 rushing attempts per game, Michel made the most of his limited touches. He averaged 50 rushing yards per game on 5.7 yards per attempt and generated a career-high 6 attempts of 15+ yards.
This may have been what put Michel on Rams head coach Sean McVay’s radar as the team works through the loss of Cam Akers. At the same time, the emergence of rookie Rhamondre Stevenson during training camp and the preseason made Michel expendable for the Patriots.
The running back room in Los Angeles
The Rams’ trade for Michel confirms that McVay wasn’t confident having Darrell Henderson lead the team’s backfield. The running back room is in disarray right now, and Henderson is dealing with a thumb injury. Xavier Jones was dealing with an Achilles tendon injury and was subsequently waived. That leaves just rookie Jake Funk.
As a result, the opportunity is there for the taking for Michel in one of the most productive offenses in the NFL.
The “Sean McVay Effect”
McVay had success with the Rams at a young age and is known for his offensive prowess. Two of his former offensive assistants, Matt LaFleur and Zac Taylor, were hired as head coaches of the Packers and Bengals, respectively, in 2019.
McVay made former Rams quarterback Jared Goff fantasy-relevant quickly. Now, he’s upgraded at the position with Matthew Stafford. The Rams have also had a very productive running game under McVay. Furthermore, Michel spent one year with the team’s running back coach Thomas Brown at Georgia.
Running backs have prospered in McVay’s scheme
Since 2017, running backs in the Rams’ offense have averaged 27.7 opportunities, 135 total yards, and 24.5 PPR fantasy points per game. This situation bodes well for Michel.
When considering Michel’s statistical body of work, he’ll most likely handle all of the early downs and short-yardage situation. He is the only true power back on the roster, offering him the potential to be a touchdown vulture.
The state of the Rams’ offensive line
The Rams’ offensive line enjoyed a solid training camp and preseason. They trotted out the same starting five in each outing. They also have adequate depth if one of the starters were to miss time. Offensive line coach Kevin Carberry has assembled an impressive group. It could be, in my opinion, the Rams’ best offensive line since the 2018 season, which resulted in a Super Bowl appearance.
Should you draft Sony Michel in 2021?
Yes, you should. With the Rams’ backfield shaping into a committee, Michel will have a role. He could see around 200+ opportunities this season.
Michel’s current ADP
According to Fleaflicker, Michel is the RB42 with an ADP of 119. In pay-to-play formats, such as the National Fantasy Championship, Michel is the RB67 with an ADP of 237.95.
Michel’s ADP should move steadily as fantasy managers adapt to the news. He’s firmly on the RB3 radar in all formats with upside for more.
