The Seattle Seahawks (7) will travel to take on the San Francisco 49ers (2) in the first Wild Card matchup of the weekend. It’s always difficult to make a Seahawks vs. 49ers prediction because they are division rivals, but this year is especially difficult.
Although this is a divisional matchup and the third time these teams are meeting this year, the specifics of the games always have had an asterisk of some sort. So, we’ll evaluate the full picture of the two teams this season and use that information to make our prediction for Wild Card Weekend.
Seahawks vs. 49ers Prediction
| Team | Off EPA | Def EPA | Pass EPA | Pass D EPA | Net EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.013 (13th) | 0.031 (26th) | 0.060 (11th) | 0.046 (19th) | -0.018 (21st) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.084 (4th) | -0.112 (1st) | 0.171 (4th) | -0.081 (2nd) | 0.196 (1st) |
The San Francisco 49ers enter the contest as 9.5-point favorites over their division rival Seattle Seahawks. While it’s no shock to find out that San Francisco has the best defense in the NFL by a number of measures, it might be surprising to learn that their offense, quarterbacked by three different starters this year, is one of the most efficient in the league as well.
Brock Purdy is doing well as a caretaker quarterback. Like Jimmy Garoppolo, he’s done an excellent job avoiding mistakes and finding open receivers at a consistent rate. He ranks sixth in the NFL in EPA per dropback and benefits from an offense that leads the league – by a healthy margin – in percentage of receiving yards after the catch.
That speaks to how well Kyle Shanahan designs his offense, but it also points to a limited quarterback, reliant on the after-catch capability of his receivers. Some offenses with a high YAC rate, like the Kansas City offense, don’t have those limitations, and Patrick Mahomes can create however the offense needs him to. But Shanahan has kept Purdy on a leash, having him throw at just 7.0 air yards per target – ranking 36th of 41 quarterbacks.
His deep ball rate is similar, at just 7.6 percent, 37th of 41 quarterbacks. Seattle will need to make sure they tackle well and limit yards after the catch. Unfortunately, while Seattle’s rookie corners are fairly good at pass breakups and preventing completions, the Seattle defense overall isn’t good at closing down and tackling in the passing game.
MORE: 49ers vs. Seahawks Odds and Picks
They allow the sixth-most yards after the catch per pass play and have had the second-highest rate of their conceded receiving yards come after the catch. With Jordyn Brooks on injured reserve, they’ve lost one of their surest tacklers, too. This could be a glaring weakness in a Seattle defense that has had some highlight plays but has mostly struggled all year.
On top of that, the 49ers have an incredibly capable run game with Christian McCaffrey and a now-healthy Elijah Mitchell running behind one of the league’s best run-blocking units. The 49ers offensive line has had some issues with pass rushers, but Purdy does an excellent job getting rid of the ball quickly, and Seattle doesn’t have the juice in pass rush to really take advantage of any weaknesses. On top of that, Seattle blitzes less than any other team in the league, so we may not see excitement develop upfront.
On the other side of the ball, Geno Smith has been orchestrating a surprisingly explosive passing game that has revived his career and made the most out of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, either of whom may find themselves the target of a deep bomb. Smith hasn’t been throwing deep more often than league average, but his successes have been consistent – he has the fourth-best completion rate on deep throws and the second-highest positive-play rate on those passes.
The 49ers do a good job against deep passes, however. They deter deep passes at the ninth-best rate in the NFL, with only 8.8 percent of opponent dropbacks turning into pass attempts of 20 yards or more. They only allow a completion rate of 32.7 percent – ranking 10th in that category – and they’ve allowed 0.27 EPA per play on those passes, ranking 15th. Combined, that comes out to a deep passing defense index that ranks tenth-best in the NFL.
Part of that equation has been the DPOY candidate rushing the passer, Nick Bosa. He’s tied for first in the league in pressures and has been in on 19 sacks in either a solo or partial role – the most in the NFL. He has one of the lowest missed tackle rates among edge defenders and does a great job stopping the run.
He’ll be up against a pair of rookies at tackle. While that would normally be a feast for a premier edge rusher, it’s worth noting that both tackles have played pretty well this year. In either instance, the 49ers do have an advantage against Seattle’s preferred playstyle, and having elite players at every level of the defense – Bosa is complemented by Fred Warner and Talanoa Hufanga – makes it pretty easy to see why Vegas favors San Francisco.
Seattle lost their previous two matchups, one by 20 points and the other by eight. The eight-point loss, which occurred in December, wasn’t as close as that one-score margin suggests, as the 49ers were leading 21-6 until the final few minutes of the game. It wasn’t exactly a garbage-time score, but neither was it completely threatening to their dominance.
The 49ers should come out ahead and win this one comfortably. 9.5 points is a fair spread, and the only reason it would be this close is that divisional games tend to be closer, historically, than out-of-division games when all relevant factors are accounted for.
Seattle’s best hope is that Purdy turns into a pumpkin – something entirely within the realm of possibility – and he’s forced to play quarterback instead of point guard.
This week, I don’t expect that to happen, and the 49ers should win off the backs of Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey, who are both poised to generate big yardage.
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