Seahawks RB Fantasy Outlook: Should You Draft Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet?

The Seattle Seahawks begin the first year of the post-Pete Carroll era with a new, defensive-minded head coach in Mike Macdonald and a creative offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb.

However, one element of continuity is the presence of Kenneth Walker III as the head of the ground game and Zach Charbonnet as his primary complementary option. With the winds of change blowing through Seattle heading into the 2024 season, what is each back’s fantasy football outlook?

Kenneth Walker III’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections

• PPR fantasy Points: 24.7 (208.0 Non-PPR)
• Rushing Yards: 1175.5
• Rushing Touchdowns: 10.2
• Receptions: 33.7
• Receiving Yards: 254.9
• Receiving Touchdowns: 0.6

It’s great that Walker didn’t exactly get worse from his rookie season to his sophomore season, but he didn’t get better, either.

Walker played exactly 15 games in each season, totaling 1,164 and 1,215 yards from scrimmage, exactly nine touchdowns, and averaging 13.5 and 13.3 fantasy points per game, respectively. It’s uncanny how similarly he performed.

The good news is the addition of Charbonnet didn’t seem to negatively impact Walker’s production. The bad news is that fact may not remain true this season.

Walker was drafted by the previous regime — albeit, so was Charbonnet. However, Carroll always had a sense of allegiance to the running back he decided was his main guy. That was clearly Walker. Now, it’s an unknown. There is undoubtedly a non-zero chance Charbonnet can play his way into the RB1 role this season. I wouldn’t say it’s likely, but it’s possible.

On the bright side, Walker was still elite at making defenders miss. His evaded-tackles-per-touch rate was 12th as a rookie and second as a sophomore … we’d just like to see him do a little more after evading tackles.

If Walker is going to take a massive step forward, the biggest area in which he could do so is his touchdowns. There’s certainly plenty of meat left on the bone there.

Walker’s ADP currently sits at RB17, No. 43 overall. Where he goes overall is perfectly fine, but that’s a product of WRs being pushed up draft boards. The RB17 price tag is tough because, so far, it’s represented his ceiling. His RB16 performance as a rookie is the best he’s done in his two short years.

Walker’s upside is likely in the RB12-14 range, so it’s not fair to say he’s being drafted at his ceiling, though he’s being drafted close to it. Meanwhile, a reality where Charbonnet severely eats into Walker’s workload could see him finish in the RB24-30 range.

– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst

Zach Charbonnet’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections

• PPR fantasy Points: 162.6 (112.0 Non-PPR)
• Rushing Yards: 707.8
• Rushing Touchdowns: 1.5
• Receptions: 50.6
• Receiving Yards: 320.2
• Receiving Touchdowns: 0.1

Despite not ever becoming a weekly fantasy starter, Charbonnet was the exact type of back fantasy managers should have been targeting last season. We want to draft reasonably talented running backs with a clear path toward an upside if one thing breaks their way. It just didn’t happen for Charbonnet as a rookie.

We did get a glimpse of what Charbonnet could be, though. Charbonnet only averaged 5.7 fantasy points per game in his 14 games with Walker on the field. However, Charbonnet averaged 13.3 fantasy points per game in his two games with Walker sidelined.

Charbonnet’s target share was only 7.6%, identical to Walker’s. The good news is Charbonnet averaged 4.8 yards per touch (24th in the league) and 3.78 yards created per touch (14th). Volume matters far more than efficiency, but it doesn’t hurt to know that if Charbonnet touches the ball more, he’s good enough to show coaches he deserves to continue it.

Heading into the 2024 season, there’s no perceived ambiguity in the Seahawks’ backfield. Walker is the clear RB1 with an RB17 ADP, No. 44 overall. Charbonnet is nowhere close, going off the board as the RB43, No. 138 overall.

We find ourselves in a similar situation to last year when Charbonnet was a good player to target. Even if we consider nothing other than price, Charbonnet can be your fantasy team’s RB4 or RB5, and we know he’s one injury away from being a weekly startable RB2.

Walker certainly has the inside track to the RB1 role, and will undoubtedly open the season in that spot. But Charbonnet will have every opportunity to play his way into more work. Most importantly, Walker no longer has injury-related job security.

Ultimately, this comes down to cost. I have Charbonnet ranked as my RB37, which is slightly above consensus. I wouldn’t draft him over backs more likely to be startable right away, but in terms of RBs going outside the top 36, he carries as much upside as any of them, which is exactly what fantasy managers should be looking for with the final two RBs on their rosters.

– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst