The glimpses of greatness fantasy managers have seen from Saquon Barkley have suggested he can be an elite producer at the RB position, but he’s been the featured player in a mostly terrible offense with the New York Giants through the first six years of his NFL career.
Can Barkley finally realize his true fantasy football potential with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2024?
Saquon Barkley’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Few running back prospects have ever possessed the exceptional combination of strength, speed, and explosiveness that we’ve seen from Barkley entering the league. The New York Giants spending the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft on him underscores the rare physical ability Barkley offers with his 6’0”, 233-pound frame.
Barkley flashed that elite ability from the moment he stepped on an NFL field, managing a RB1 overall finish in his rookie season with 1,307 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns to go with 91 receptions for 721 yards and four more scores. That season alone proved just how dominant of a fantasy force he’s capable of being.
The unfortunate reality surrounding Barkley is we’ve never seen those heights from him again over his next five seasons.
Saquon Barkley’s Career Fantasy Positional Ranks
- 2018: RB1 (385.8 fantasy points)
- 2019: RB10 (243.1)
- 2020: RB114 (15.4)
- 2021: RB30 (146.6)
- 2022: RB5 (283)
- 2023: RB13 (223.2)
Do these fantasy rankings require a bit of context? I believe they absolutely do.
After playing a full 16-game season his rookie year, Barkley has missed 25 games over the last five years while dealing with a multitude of injuries — torn ACL, high-ankle sprains, and an elbow sprain — and playing in some of the worst offenses the league had to offer throughout his entire career.
The New York offense hasn’t done him any favors either. Since 2019, the Giants’ offense ranks in the bottom fourth in the league in points scored — which has certainly capped Barkley’s fantasy ceiling on a yearly basis.
Additionally, the Giants’ passing game has been so horrendous over the last five years that they haven’t had a pass catcher top 70 receptions or 800 yards receiving. This has undoubtedly impacted both Barkley’s efficiency (3.89 yards per carry in 2023) and his number of touches in the red zone.
Yet, Barkley’s RB13 and RB5 fantasy finishes over the last two years with the likes of Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, and Tommy DeVito under center should certainly not be ignored. His 0.98 yards before contact per attempt in 2023 was in the same range as Ezekiel Elliott and Chuba Hubbard, who were in similarly poor situations with bad quarterback play and struggling offensive lines.
Here comes the good news. Barkley will be playing behind an Eagles offensive line that helped D’Andre Swift average 2.16 yards before contact per attempt last year — which was the highest mark of any running back in 2023.
The move from New York to Philadelphia finally allows Barkley to see a feature-back role for a top-10 offensive unit, giving him the upside for an RB1 overall fantasy ceiling in 2024 — if Jalen Hurts doesn’t vulture away all of the short-yardage work this upcoming season.
Hurts owns the record for most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback over two years with 28. Sure, the Tush Push may not be as effective with Jason Kelce now enjoying retirement, but Hurts will still see his fair share of carries inside the 5-yard line — where he ranked sixth in the league last season with 16 carries for 13 scores.
In comparison, Barkley only saw six such carries last year while being stuck in a Giants offense that produced just 43 trips to the red zone — which ranked 28th in the NFL.
In addition to losing some goal-to-go carries to Hurts, Barkley’s pass-catching floor is likely another concern heading into 2024. The aforementioned Swift, who is an excellent receiving threat out of the backfield, caught a career-low 39 receptions last year.
This likely means that in Philly’s offense, Barkley won’t get anywhere near his career-high 91 receptions mark from his rookie year.
Is Barkley a Good Fantasy Pick?
Barkley’s ADP at No. 9 overall in the first round as the RB4 overall off the board certainly suggests fantasy managers still believe in Barkley’s potential as a elite option at the RB position entering the 2024 NFL season. For some additional context, Taylor is currently being drafted behind Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and Christian McCaffrey at the RB position.
The rushing touchdown production resume of Hurts is the big detractor here. Even if Hurts Tush Push carries are reduced or simply not as as effective without Jason Kelce at center, it is still difficult to suggest he won’t be a threat to produce 10+ rushing scores in 2024. This can cap Barkley’s fantasy ceiling.
Yet, a talent like Barkley running behind this offensive line with what will feel like an abundance of scoring opportunities in the red zone compared to his previous team should be enough to elevate Barkley back into the top-five picture at the RB position in 2024.