The San Francisco 49ers have spent the third-most time with a lead in these first five games, per TruMedia. Since 2020, this ranks 18th of 160 teams after five weeks of play. Yet, ironically, the 2020 49ers squad is the only other team within the top 25% to have a losing record.
The Seattle Seahawks, meanwhile, started off the season on fire but have dropped two straight, in large part due to several injuries. Based on these trends for each team, what are betting predictions for the 49ers vs. Seahawks matchup on Thursday night?
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
49ers -3.5 - Moneyline
49ers (-170); Seahawks (+142) - Over/Under
48.5 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Lumen Field (Seattle)
49ers vs. Seahawks Preview and Prediction
The 49ers’ offense ranks ninth in EPA (expected points added), 10th in success rate, and first in generating plays of 10 or more yards. While performances haven’t been as dominant as last year’s, San Francisco still consistently puts up points through both explosive plays and steady gains.
On the other side, the Seahawks’ defense has been mostly solid this season but has recently faltered. Over the past two weeks, they rank 28th in overall defensive EPA and dead last in pass defense EPA.
Fortunately for Seattle, most of its key defenders are expected to return for this divisional matchup, aside from Byron Murphy II and Uchenna Nwosu. However, as mentioned, the Seahawks’ biggest defensive issue lately has been the pass rush. After ranking third in pressure rate during the first three weeks, they’ve dropped to 23rd over the last two.
The 49ers’ offense should look to exploit the Seahawk’s weakness against play-action. During their two-game defensive slide, the Seahawks have faced play-action the second-most times in the NFL. Meanwhile, San Francisco ranks second in play-action EPA but surprisingly only uses it the 26th most.
Teams have learned Kyle Shanahan will check out of runs vs the 5 and 6 DLine fronts. DCs are now dictating how the 49ers play offensively. Kyle has to adjust! https://t.co/paX3pJwfIA pic.twitter.com/lIacJZZV86
— John Chapman (@JL_Chapman) October 7, 2024
One theory for the 49ers’ relatively low play-action usage is the frequency of heavy defensive-line fronts. San Francisco encounters stacked boxes (eight or more defenders) more than any other team. They rank 20th in EPA when running plays against stacked boxes but climb to fifth when using play-action against them.
Notably, Seattle stacks the box the 20th most amongst other NFL teams and ranks fifth in EPA when doing so. This sets up a key opportunity for the 49ers to exploit the Seahawks’ vulnerability against play-action.
San Francisco’s defense ranks 13th in EPA this year, performing much better against the pass (seventh) than the run (23rd). The most embarrassing stat is that they are 27th in defensive EPA in the fourth quarter; the likely reason for their catastrophic collapses. The 49ers will need to be very careful as they face the eighth-best offense in EPA in the fourth quarter.
Offensively, Seattle has been right around average despite having the fourth-most plays of 10+ yards and ninth-most plays of 20+ yards. This could be a direct result of ranking 10th in EPA lost to turnovers and 12th in EPA lost to penalties.
I expect this to be a high-scoring game between two very familiar teams. Unfortunately, Vegas also believes that, as showcased by a 48.5-point line. Since 2018, there have been 105 games with a line of 48.5 points or higher; 39% of them hit the over.
My picks: Under 48.5 (-108) and 49ers -3.5 (-102)
